Cui Haihua, a researcher at Southern Finance and Economics, comprehensively reported that since 2021, the overall performance of the secondary market has been poor. As of January 28, 2022, the CSI 300 fell nearly 8%. The auto sector also continued to pull back. In the new energy vehicle sector, due to the rise in raw material prices and the end of the new energy annual cycle at the end of the year, the recent decline in the new energy sector with higher valuations is more obvious.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, with the improvement of the global chip supply shortage and the superimposed downstream demand entering the peak season before the Spring Festival, the production and sales of vehicle manufacturers increased month-on-month, driving the recovery of the plate boom.
Automotive: Chip supply has eased, and production has increased significantly
From the perspective of production and sales: In December 2021, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.9072 million units and 2.7859 million units, respectively, +12.48% and +10.48% month-on-month, +2.35% and -1.60% year-on-year, respectively, and the monthly output was +11.57% compared with the previous month, and the monthly sales volume was +7.36% compared with the previous month.
The cumulative production and sales of automobiles in the whole year were 26.082 million units and 26.275 million units, respectively, +3.40% and +3.81% year-on-year, respectively.
Shanxi Securities: In the short term: chip supply has improved, automobile consumption has gradually recovered, production and sales have basically returned to positive year-on-year, and continued to rise month-on-month. However, due to the high price of bulk commodities, the logistics cost of the festival is high, the production cost of enterprises is larger, and the overall profitability of the automotive industry is general.
In the long run: On the one hand, there is still room for growth in the automotive industry, but the domestic automobile market has been transformed from an incremental market to a stock market, and domestic production and sales tend to grow slightly. On the other hand, the long-term trend of the transformation of the automotive industry to intelligence, networking, electrification and sharing remains unchanged, and the rise of emerging industries is expected to drive the improvement of industry space.
Public fund holdings in the auto sector rose month-on-month
According to Wind statistics, the allocation ratio of public funds in the automotive industry at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 was 2.71%, up 0.44 percentage points from the previous quarter, but it was still in a low allocation state. The high point of the allocation ratio of public funds in the automotive industry was 6.3% at the end of the third quarter of 2014, and since then it has generally been in a downward trend (especially in the vehicle sector), and the allocation ratio from the end of the third quarter of 2015 to the end of 2016 has increased from 3.3% to 4.4%, mainly related to the previous round of purchase tax incentives.
From the perspective of the total market value of the fund's heavy stocks, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the top three automotive industry stocks (total market value of shares held by the public fund's heavy stocks at the end of the 4th quarter of 2021) ranked in the top three.
From the perspective of the number of heavy stocks in partial stock public funds, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the top 10 automotive industry stocks (and the number of heavy funds) in the number of partial stock public funds were: BYD (258), Fuyao Glass (78), Bethel (56), Xingyu shares (48), Chunfeng Power (46), Huayu Automobile (45), Great Wall Motor (41), Xinquan shares (33), Zhongding shares (32), Weichai Power (31).
The market share and price center of Chinese brands have increased significantly
The change in the drive technology path has pulled significantly on the share of Chinese brands. According to the China Machinery Center, the market share of Passenger Cars for Chinese brands in December 2021 was 45.7%, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year, and the market share of Chinese brands after excluding new energy was 36.9%, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year. New energy drives the market share of Chinese brands to increase by 8.8%, of which pure electric pull increases by 7.0%.
From the perspective of cumulative sales, after the cumulative sales volume of Chinese brands in 2021 excluding new energy, the market share of Chinese brands is 36.1%. In 2021, new energy will boost the market share of Chinese brands by 6.2%, and the pull will increase by 3.8% year-on-year. The market share of Chinese brands has increased significantly, the upward trend is obvious, and the pull effect of new energy on Chinese brands is significant.
GF Securities believes that hybridization and electrification are the optimal solutions under policy constraints and taking into account market consumption demand, and the pull effect of the choice of driving technology path on the market share of Chinese brands is expected to be further enhanced.
Configure the policy