Edit | Yu Bin
Produced by | Chaoqi Network "Yu see column"
In the past 2021, car building is undoubtedly the hottest keyword of the year, and cross-border car manufacturing has become the annual good story. This year, the new energy vehicle track, on the one hand, xiaomi and other technology companies, traditional manufacturing companies, real estate companies have entered the game. On the other hand, Baidu, following the launch of Apollo, which specializes in unmanned teams, also announced car manufacturing at the beginning of the year, and cooperated with Geely to establish Jidu Automobile, aiming at smart cars and new energy vehicle tracks.
By 2022, this heat will continue unabated. In particular, the story of cross-border car building of housing enterprises is still playing out. Recently, Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. officially announced on its official Weibo: Evergrande's first mass-produced model Hengchi 5 first car rolled off the production line at the Tianjin plant 12 days earlier than originally planned, and Hengchi Automobile ushered in a major milestone.
Obviously, this is good news for Evergrande after last year's thunderstorm debt of more than one trillion yuan. However, Evergrande, which has been affected by car manufacturing for many years, has embarked on a desperate road at the capital level, can it use Hengchi mass production cars to overturn? The answer is probably not that simple.
Hengchi Automobile was difficult to save Evergrande
Although the good news came from Evergrande at the beginning of the year, and even the downline was earlier than the original plan, it still seemed a little late compared to the expectations of the public. It is understood that the Hengchi 5, which came off the line this time, is Evergrande's first compact pure electric SUV, with a front-face closed grille with T-shaped daytime running lights on both sides, the body size is 4725 * 1925 * 1688mm, the wheelbase is 2780mm, equipped with an electric motor produced by United Automotive Electronics Co., Ltd., with a maximum power of 150kW.
According to Evergrande's previous planning, Hengchi 5 is the cheapest model among the 10 models of Evergrande Automobile, and the car is expected to be priced at 200,000 yuan, compared with Audi Q3 and BMW X1. Through the wording of the official announcement of its first model off the production line, it is not difficult to see that Evergrande has high hopes for this new car, and even regards it as a life-saving straw to save Evergrande.
However, the public's expectations of it do not seem to be too enthusiastic. On the one hand, the current Evergrande is in a crisis of ups and downs, and it is not yet known whether Hengchi's new models can be successfully mass-produced and listed. On the other hand, in view of the current fierce competitive environment in the new energy automobile industry, even if it is mass-produced as scheduled, it may not be able to sell much. As Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said in an interview with Sina.com, Hengchi 5 can deliver 1,000 vehicles in the second half of the year after entering the market.
It can be seen that compared with the deficit of Evergrande's market, its new models are difficult to fill the gap in its funds and resolve Evergrande's crisis in the short term. On the contrary, Evergrande's huge investment in building cars for many years has dragged down the market, and together with the debt of its real estate business, Evergrande has accumulated a lot of money.
Evergrande's car-making dream began in 2017. At that time, Evergrande's car manufacturing could be said to be high-minded, and it brought a short-term glory to its soaring stock price. The wishful thinking behind Evergrande is naturally to seek diversification and transformation when the development of the real estate industry enters a bottleneck period.
However, good things are more grinding. Xu Jiayin's dream road to building a car is not smooth. Earlier, Evergrande tried to cooperate with Jia Yueting's FF car, but in the end it was fruitless, and instead could only acquire auto assets through the way of "buying, buying and buying", and then entered the game.
For example, in terms of technology, Evergrande Automobile acquired the new energy vehicle 3.0 chassis architecture with intellectual property rights of the German BENTELER Group; and established a joint venture with the German hofer to jointly develop and apply the core technology of the three-in-one powertrain. At the same time, it purchased a 40% stake in the car dealer Guanghui Group, the Swedish electric vehicle company NEVS, and took a stake in the Swedish sports car brand Königsegg.
In addition, in order to solve the key technologies of power batteries, Evergrande Automobile said that it has laid out a whole industry ecological chain covering battery materials, mechanism simulation, solid-state batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, and battery cascade recycling. Moreover, Evergrande Automobile has built new energy vehicle production bases in Nansha, Tianjin and other new energy vehicles in China.
After entering the game, Evergrande is also going farther and farther on the road of burning money to build cars. According to the information officially disclosed by Evergrande, Evergrande invested 14.7 billion yuan in 2019 to build cars, plans to invest 5.7 billion yuan in 2020, and is expected to invest 9 billion yuan in 2021. Since then, at an internal meeting in 2021, Evergrande has said that without building a car, the company has invested 47.4 billion yuan in the Hengchi brand.
At the same time as Tianda invested, Evergrande's pace in car building is also a great leap forward. It is understood that even in 2021, when the crisis is the most serious, Evergrande has also completed the launch of Hengchi 1, 3, 5, 6 and 7 trial vehicles, and successfully completed the winter test, summer test and plateau test. It is worth mentioning that on April 19, the 19th Shanghai International Auto Show opened, Evergrande Automobile and nine Hengchi models officially unveiled at the auto show for the first time, covering all levels from A to D, as well as a full range of models such as cars, coupes, SUVs, MPVs, and crossovers. At that time, Evergrande said that the new car would be mass-produced and listed in 2022.
However, in just over half a year, the bubble that Evergrande blew at the Shanghai Auto Show was disillusioned with its thunderstorm. In October, Xu Jiayin announced a major strategic adjustment of Evergrande, in the next 10 years to achieve real estate to new energy vehicle industry transformation, the formation of new energy vehicles as the mainstay, real estate as a supplement to the industrial pattern, Evergrande plans to achieve annual production and sales of more than 1 million vehicles by 2025, 2035 to achieve annual sales of more than 5 million vehicles.
At the same time, in order to cope with the new situation, Evergrande Automobile has reduced the six models that were originally developed simultaneously, and only retained the fastest progressing Hengchi 5 and Hengchi 6 models. The off-line of Hengchi 5 can be seen as Evergrande car has achieved the stage goal, but it is understood that the car is still in the small batch trial production stage, and the official mass production will wait until August this year. It is difficult to predict what variables will be encountered during this period.
The victory or defeat of Evergrande's car is unpredictable
As we all know, the car industry has a high threshold and large investment. Even new energy vehicles that do not require core technologies such as engines also have technical barriers to the "three-electric system". Therefore, although countless players are eager to try and enter the game, it is a capital game in which large consortiums and large technology companies are eligible to enter the finals.
In the past, Evergrande, which was bright in people's eyes, was considered qualified to enter the game, but it lacked enough technical strength to win this hard battle. But now, even at the capital level, Evergrande now has no time to take care of itself, and can only sell its own property to save itself, and naturally cannot add points to its car-making business. Therefore, the dilemma faced by Evergrande Car Manufacturing is also obvious.
First of all, Evergrande is short of money. As mentioned above, building a car is a money-burning business. This can be seen through the development process of the three major new car-making forces of ideal, Weilai and Xiaopeng from the beginning of car-making to the beginning of the scale. For example, Li Bin, the founder of Weilai, also complained: "Don't think about building a car without 20 billion." In 2019, NIO's net loss was as high as 11.296 billion yuan, and it lost about 540,000 yuan for every car sold. In 2021, he also changed his mouth to say that there is no 40 billion yuan not to build a car.
You know, Baidu, Xiaomi, these enterprises with scientific and technological backgrounds, in order to build cars, even with 50 billion yuan as the "starting threshold", 100 billion cash as a reserve force. On the other hand, Evergrande made cars, more than 3 years later, just saw the shadow of the new car.
It can be seen that it is too early to discuss who is in charge of the automotive industry, and perhaps only by surviving will there be a chance to win.
Second, the uncertainty of industry policies and the risk of market volatility. It is understood that the subsidy for new energy vehicles is declining year by year, and 2022 will also be the last year of the implementation of the subsidy policy. When the policy support weakens, the new energy vehicle market will inevitably fluctuate, and even be unfavorable to the latecomers in the industry. Evergrande Automobile has just rolled off the first car offline, which can be described as untimely.
Moreover, according to statistics, the enterprises that have entered the car in recent years will also enter the final period in the past two years, coinciding with policy changes, and major players will also divide the winners and lose in advance in the new round of market games.
Third, from the perspective of industry competition, Evergrande obviously does not lack opponents. Putting aside the new car-making forces that have already gained a foothold, as well as the cross-border car-making of the above-mentioned technology companies, even in the real estate industry, Evergrande will meet another player, Baoneng.
For example, following Evergrande's first new car off the production line, Baoneng Automobile also held a new car tasting meeting recently, and two models of BAO and Qoros Auto's C21 and other new energy models were unveiled.
It is worth mentioning that Guangzhou Baoneng Automobile has introduced the strategic shareholding of Guangzhou Development Zone Science City Group and Knowledge City Group at the same time, and is currently promoting the research and development of new energy models, base construction, equipment introduction and other work at full speed. The blessing of local state-owned assets may add some chips to Baoneng's successful cross-border car manufacturing. Compared with Evergrande's internal and external difficulties and isolation, Baoneng obviously has a better chance of winning.
In addition to facing the above many problems, Evergrande Car Manufacturing is also difficult to stand alone on the problem of "chip shortage". According to Gartner data, since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, 85% of the world's auto companies have been plagued by chip shortages, which has brought difficult practical problems to the production capacity of car companies in 2021.
Judging from Evergrande's debt data, Evergrande's debt has soared since 2016, and Evergrande's total debt in 2015 was only 614.9 billion yuan, but in 2016, it grew to 1.16 trillion yuan. Since then, Evergrande's annual debt has maintained rapid growth. In 2021, it was exposed that the debt exceeded two trillion yuan. It is understood that its main way of borrowing is banks, according to statistics, Evergrande is saddled with the debt of about 128 banks.
Evergrande's business model over the years has been: first obtaining a loan from the bank, and then using this fund to buy land and build a building. After completion, these properties or projects are used as collateral to obtain more loans from banks. In this cycle, Evergrande is naturally insolvent and full of crises. Under such a development trend, the dilemma faced by Evergrande Car Manufacturing has added many variables.
epilogue
Evergrande is poor and thinks of change, although there are merits. Moreover, as a long-established real estate leader in China, Evergrande also has unique capital and resource advantages, so its cross-border is not the first time. Including successively involved in football, automobile, health, cultural tourism and other industries.
Although Evergrande can also be remarkable in the layout of some areas, it is extraordinary to enter the game and build cars. Therefore, it has also spent several years to lay the foundation for its automobile dream. However, Evergrande may have suffered its own consequences because it was too aggressive and too large.
The off-line of Hengchi 5, although Evergrande saw a glimmer of success in car manufacturing, it still has a long road ahead and is very dangerous. Under the internal lack of capital, lack of technology, external market environment changes in the internal and external troubles, Hengchi 5 even if the smooth mass production, in the short term to reverse evergrande's dilemma, I am afraid it is not easy.
Whether the ending of Evergrande's car will be as dazzling as when it was determined to enter the game is also full of expectations.