Xing Yanjun said
Lead
Compared with the current sad teacher Alima and Evergrande Xu boss, it is a Fujian person who is on the cusp of the storm and enjoys the attention of the people.
Today's Recommended Report: 2021 Analog Chip Industry Research Report
Source: Tea House (ID: jcytoday)
Author: King nanyuan
On the rivers and lakes, a generation of versions of a generation of gods.
Compared with the sad teacher Alima and evergrande Xu boss, who is on the cusp of the storm and enjoys the attention of everyone, Zeng Yuqun, the chairman of the Ningde era.
Xiao Ma Ge said that Tencent is just an ordinary company.
Zeng Yuqun said that CATL is committed to becoming a great enterprise.
No way, Ning Wang is the leader of new energy, the representative of the 60-year Kondratiev cycle.
A grain of sand of the times,
Falling on a man's head is a mountain,
Falling on the head of a listed company is a trillion empire.
And this trillion empire, whenever new energy is adjusted in the capital market, will always be taken out to run, criticize, and do round after round of full-body CT.
Fame is all over the world, and so is the slander.
02
Around Christmas 2021, many people are ready to do a big job, and the result is a big fight by the market.
New energy is plummeting, and many people lose a year's profit in a few days.
At this time, a series of articles such as "The Crack of the Trillion Battery Empire" in the media began to ferment on the Internet, revealing the "Seven Deadly Sins" of King Ning in the open and in the dark:
Arrogance: Disrespectful to others, only recognize money, Weilai executives auction out real estate deeds to ship.
Greed: Squeezing customers and forcing them to collect margin for the next 5-10 years.
Laziness: The disease of large enterprises, which does not cooperate with the solid-state batteries and other technologies of car companies.
Lust: Business is all overlord clauses, come up to protect their own 20% of the gross profit, not allow bargaining.
Gluttony: Snake-like circle capacity, occupying a variety of phospholithite ore.
Jealousy: Suppress the rise of second-tier manufacturers and sue AVIC lithium battery for infringement.
Fury: Because Xiaopeng jumped single, Zeng Yuqun had a big fight with He Xiaopeng.
The Ningde era fell by 170 billion yuan in a week, and the stock price fell from the peak of 690 to 550 at one point, and the empire was miserable.
Will King Ning really be abandoned?
03
A master once said that China's manufacturing and capital markets are full of charlatans and megalomaniacs. The king agreed.
There is always a sudden emergence of a new technology, a new concept, as if tomorrow can change the universe.
But in fact, a technology starts from the laboratory, to go through small tests, pilot tests, the formation of products, the pursuit of scenarios, repeated improvements in order to be industrialized, and industrialization requires land, plants, supporting facilities, processes, measuring tools, equipment, production lines, manufacturers, requiring a lot of time and trial and error costs.
Among the various concepts and technologies, less than one in ten thousand can become commodities.
Even the industry, academia and research community are unanimously optimistic about the direction, from the laboratory to the consumer, 5 years to lay the foundation.
Just like the solid-state battery that Weilai boasted at that time, it was completely a PPT, and it could not stand the scrutiny of production logic.
Look at the diaphragm leader Enjie shares that were mistakenly killed that year, and what did it look like later?
(The blue circle is the time to stir up the concept of solid-state batteries)
Technology is not equal to industry at all, Zeng Yuqun, as a doctor of the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is naturally very sober.
Therefore, Ning Wang basically never cooperates with the concept of many car companies to fool around, too far away, and cannot make a mistake.
What nano batteries, solid-state batteries, 800V fast charging, 4680 large cylinders that are popular in the outside world, Ning Wang's technical reserves are basically the first.
Biya took out the lithium iron phosphate battery every day to talk about things, and the shipment volume of the Ningde era was also the first.
Power battery as an integrated product, from copper, cobalt, lithium, nickel to lithium salt materials, ternary precursors, lithium iron phosphate, graphitization, from the battery's positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte, diaphragm four main areas, you have to all layout, in order to ensure the PPT bragging capacity into practice.
And with a complete upstream raw material map, there is only one and a half in the world, one is Ning Wang, and half is South Korea's LG.
(Ningwang has invested more than 75 companies in the upstream materials field)
The more sophisticated and profitable the industry, the easier it is to have money and not be able to buy things.
Unfortunately, China's car companies have been competing with foreign investors for 40 years, and they have always been at a low level of duplication of plagiarism and assembly.
They still think that there are factories, workers and technology, and then on credit upstream materials, owe downstream payments, and can still build cars on a large scale and build batteries on a large scale.
If you have to say that Ning Wang is fundamentally different from the previous parts and components companies, they are "mainly based on me" rather than "mainly based on Party A", and they want to build what they think is the best battery, rather than changing it according to the requirements of car companies.
Therefore, Ning Wang insists on his own good products and high gross profits, and Hu Jianren knows that good goods are hard and hard, which is the only criterion for winning performance.
Accompanying Party A's father to soak in KTV every day does not get any respect.
Moreover, the rules of the game in the automotive industry have long changed.
04
The traditional automobile industry has up to 20,000 parts, which determines that the main engine manufacturers of the car have an unquestionable right to speak, and the parts and components companies will always be party B and downstream.
It is precisely because a large amount of time, energy and talents of car companies are invested in the integration of the testing, supply and supporting of these tens of thousands of components, and if you want to build a car, you must have a huge accumulation and capital, and the car is also extremely expensive.
However, due to the maturity of electronic, die-casting machines and electrochemical technology, new energy vehicles have been reduced to only a few hundred or even dozens of parts, and the logic of the automotive industry has been reversed.
It takes 10 days for Toyota to build a petrol car, while Tesla takes 10 hours to build a Model 3.
Under the ripening of the huge market and system integration capabilities of China and the United States, new energy vehicles have become more and more like a mobile phone, rather than a means of delivery.
A new energy vehicle is a mobile phone that can walk.
Because mobile phone technology has long been applied on a large scale, lithium batteries that solve the problem of walking have become the most critical components of new energy vehicles, accounting for about 50% of the cost of the vehicle.
Cost talks, in the past, was a car company integrated parts manufacturers, and now it is a core parts company integrated car companies.
However, the host manufacturers who are accustomed to Party A are very uncomfortable, I have always been a rich father of Party A, how can I suddenly need to ask someone to do things and be pinched by Party B?
Suddenly, they found that the Ningde era, which they used to support as a step of idle chess, had grown into an unshakable giant, and Xiao Zeng, who was "strong in gambling", suddenly turned his face and did not recognize people, only recognized money.
This kind of gap, contrast, cognitive difference, and information gap are superimposed together, so that everyone feels that "the world is bitter and the king has been for a long time",
On the one hand, they hurried to support Ning Wang's competitors to do "two offerings and three offerings".
On the one hand, I hope to "kill that Fujian guy" and return the lithium battery field to the era of hegemony.
Battery companies are fragmented, and the main engine factory can of course "black hand high hanging overlord whip".
Or let Ning Wang fall, the depot is full, and he goes to build his own battery.
However, as we have already said above, the accumulation of batteries and technology is not an overnight achievement at all, raw materials and scarce resources have long been finished by others, the market economy pays attention to profits and efficiency, if China's car companies do not understand that they are a shell and integration, then naturally there will be someone to make you decent.
For example, Tesla, since its inception, has been crazy to reduce the process, crazy to reduce costs, 5 years later, he wants to build a car of 50,000 yuan, and 3 minutes out of one.
Yes, in the era of new energy, car companies are kneeling to make money, and they must not have to think differently.
You see Musk in front of the battery manufacturers, for the Ningde era of ternary and lithium iron phosphate, without bargaining direct orders, but also to package the production line.
The pure silicon anode of the materials supplier Ambris is a revolutionary progress, and Musk has moved his battery factory to his next door for the sake of this company.
The time keeper is Junjie, and Musk kneels quickly and crisply.
Tesla ultimately wants to make a profit by selling autopilot software, and it has not thought of making a profit by pressing battery manufacturers to make cars.
There are still many knowledgeable big guys like Iron Man overseas, and the Fujian Yankees can't see that they can't die for the time being.
Performance looks even more dead.
05
Just like a man singing and clubbing outside, fooling around until three o'clock in the morning, always having to go home and not going home at night, no matter how much the listed company its own concepts and stories, it always has to have performance.
Although the market value of the Ningde era is more than 1 trillion yuan, and the current price-earnings ratio is more than 120 times, it can be speculated according to the order
In the whole year of 2022, his profit is about 20 billion, which is equivalent to 60 times PE now,
In the full year of 2023, his profit is about 35 billion, which is equivalent to 35 times PE now,
Look at the listed companies with 60 times and 80 times PE on the ground in A shares, how many are serious people, and how many can have a net profit of more than 100 million? 1 billion?
After 1 billion, who can maintain more than 50% of the net profit growth year after year and make a lot of money overseas?
Therefore, killing that Fujian yankee is simply wishful thinking, and the so-called "seven deadly sins" of King Ning, when you turn your head back and look at it, shows that in Order to make things in China, it takes at least seven elements and efforts to do things, and you have to balance them with reason.
Of course, Ning Wang is an enterprise with many problems, and has nothing to do with perfection, but this also shows the biggest charm of the market economy, imperfect people, but also rely on wisdom and strength, can soar to the sky and release brilliance.
After all, those who are not jealous are mediocre.