The battle between the two males is not limited to the category of power batteries, nor is it limited to the B family and the C family.
In 2021, the brightest moment is the strong rise of new energy vehicles.
Referring to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, from January to December, the sales of narrow passenger cars in China were 20.146 million units, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. Among them, new energy sales were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year.
What do these boring numbers represent? If the automobile market is divided into traditional energy vehicles and new energy vehicles, compared with 2021 and 2020, the number of new energy vehicles increased by 1.88 million, while the number of traditional energy vehicles decreased by 1.03 million.
The direct impact of the sharp rise in sales of new energy vehicles is that the demand for power batteries has increased significantly. Therefore, only from the aspect of production capacity, it is enough to glimpse one or two.
From January to December 2021, the cumulative output of continental power batteries was 219.7GWh, an increase of 163.4% year-on-year.
Among them, the production of ternary batteries accumulated 93.9GWh, accounting for 42.7% of the total output, an increase of 93.6%; the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries accumulated 125.4GWh, accounting for 57.1% of the total output, an increase of 262.9% year-on-year.
This is the growth trend of the "magnificent wave" of the power battery.
Going back, let's try to figure out a few questions. What trends are implied behind the dispute between ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, as well as the dispute between BYD (B home) and Ningde era (C family)?
★ Lithium iron phosphate is in hot pursuit, but the two-line parallel is also a foregone conclusion
In 2021, the most impressive point is that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries has entered a "blowout period".
Since May 2021, the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the month has surpassed that of ternary lithium batteries and has remained a leader along the way. Until December, the difference between lithium iron phosphate batteries and the production of ternary lithium batteries in the current month was close to 9GWh.
The installed capacity also shows a similar trend. Since July 2021, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has begun to surpass ternary lithium batteries.
At least it shows that the new energy products of many car companies have gradually favored the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
The reason is very simple, not because of how safe lithium iron phosphate batteries are, but because after a series of technological developments, the energy density and comprehensive endurance of lithium iron phosphate batteries have "passed", and the most important thing is "affordable price" to have the opportunity to "load the car".
The penetration rate of new energy is gradually rising, and the "price war" with traditional fuel vehicles is inevitable, and low-cost battery procurement is actually very important.
However, is it possible for lithium iron phosphate batteries to completely "eat" the market share of ternary lithium batteries? That's also impossible!
Because lithium iron phosphate batteries are not perfect, especially the problem of energy attenuation at low temperatures, it has not been effectively solved. In the end, it will be a situation of "two-line parallel" of lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries, and the low price will choose lithium iron phosphate, and the high price will choose more than ternary lithium batteries.
Moreover, people will not be satisfied with the status quo. Multi-technology exploration will continue, high density, fast charging, high security, seemingly contradictory aspects, people are looking for new breakthroughs, and the best balance.
★ B family C family "two giants", branching out, each with its own advantages
B home and C family are our "abbreviations" for BYD and Ningde era, because BYD's abbreviation is BYD, and the abbreviation of Ningde era is CATL.
Obviously, these two are the "double giants" of domestic new energy.
In 2021, BYD's new energy vehicle sales ranked first in China, and the installed capacity of power batteries ranked second, and with The Fordi battery as the external window, it began to supply power batteries to the outside world, and the business scope was further expanded.
The installed capacity of power batteries in the Ningde era ranked first, reaching a market share of 52% of the installed power batteries in China, and it was a very stable position of king. Moreover, the "hand" of the Ningde era reached very far, through investment and acquisition, gradually laid out the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and even took the battery as the starting point, and began to intervene in the vehicle business, such as power exchange (EVOGO), the manufacture of complete vehicles (Avita).
Compared, we will find that the B family and the C family have some commonalities.
1, BYD, Ningde era have been deeply engaged in the field of batteries for many years, and each has its own technical persistence. Everyone's deepest impression on BYD is that it has packaged a "blade battery" for lithium iron phosphate batteries.
2, the business of both companies is very wide, not limited to a certain aspect. For example, BYD not only produces new energy vehicles, but also supplies batteries needed for mobile phones and laptops, and now shifts the power battery business from self-supply to external supply; the Ningde era is not limited to battery suppliers, and goes deep into the upstream and downstream layout.
3. Both companies attach great importance to R&D investment, and have a large amount of funds for R&D every year to ensure the construction of sustainable competitiveness.
Of course, the B family and the C family have their own unique side.
BYD is a vehicle company, with a very complete product system such as traditional fuel, hybrid, pure electric, etc., and in the car-making industry chain, it is almost a complete closed loop, with production and marketing, large revenue scale, and more stable.
The disadvantages are also here, precisely because it is the identity of the car company, "peers meet, extra red eyes", so the battery business is difficult to supply externally. Moreover, for a long time, BYD is also reluctant to sell its own batteries to the outside world, so the growth of the battery business is easy to touch the "ceiling".
The Ningde era is a relatively neutral "third party", and the supplier almost fully covers mainstream car companies, so it paves the way for its rapid development. Moreover, the cooperation between CATL and car companies is not limited to the supply relationship, but also includes building factories together, investing funds at 50:50, and binding each other more closely.
However, everyone has gradually realized that "raising tigers must be a problem". The ambition of the NINGD era is not just to be a supplier. Even the supplier is a very strong one. Moreover, the price of the battery is so high, many profits upstream players take away, and the car company is tied to the role of the chariot.
The 50:50 equity distribution may seem very fair, but in essence, the risk is also evenly shared. If the car company does not master the core technology of making batteries, even in a fair relationship, it will be very passive.
Moreover, it is a power exchange, and it is directly involved in car building, and the Ningde era seems to be less and less "neutral".
★ Write at the end
The power battery is definitely an outlet, and with it, lithium battery stocks are also surging in 2021.
Behind the arrival of capital is the sharp increase in the price of lithium battery raw materials. Originally hoped that the penetration rate of new energy would increase and the cost of batteries would be further diluted, but in fact, supply and demand were tight, and battery prices were rising.
In the industry, it is very optimistic about the development trend of new energy in 2022. Of course, the potential risk may come from the "soaring price" of power batteries, which may suppress or even reverse the development of new energy.
In short, the annual examination questions of this power battery have been "handed in". Whether 2022 will meet the "inflection point", we will wait and see.
The author of this article is Kick Car Gang Cao An