Source 丨21 Healthnews21 original work
Author 丨Ji Yuanyuan
Editor 丨Xu Xu
Image source 丨 Figureworm
The new crown virus that has been ravaging the world for two years, with the emergence of the Olmi kerong mutation, seems to be staging the final madness?
According to the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council on the 15th, at present, the Aomi Kerong mutation has swept through more than 150 countries and regions around the world, and has even become the main epidemic strain in some countries. Recently, 14 provinces on the mainland have reported imported cases of the Aomi Kerong variant, and local clusters have been reported in Tianjin and other places.
Recently, a new study shared by Valensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), shows that the new coronavirus variant strain, Olmiqueron, is "much milder" than Delta. The data showed that compared to the risk of contracting the Delta variant, those infected with Omikerong were 53 percent less likely to be hospitalized, 74 percent less likely to be admitted to an intensive care unit, and 91 percent less likely to die.
Does this mean that The Ometchon toxicity is reduced? Is COVID-19 on its way to disappear?
In this regard, on the 15th, Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Center for Infectious Diseases and director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, pointed out in an interview that after the next year, whether it is the level of herd immunity, or the immune barrier established through vaccines, or the listing of new crown treatment drugs, it means that "this may be the last 'cold winter'".
How toxic is Omicron compared to Delta?
The above-mentioned CDC study is based on nearly 70,000 infected people who tested positive in December 2021, and a team of scientists from the University of California, Berkeley, the medical institution "Kaiser Medical" and CDC analyzed that about 0.5% of the infected people in Omicron (235 people) were hospitalized, and about 1.3% of the Delta infected people (222 people) were hospitalized. In the study, the number of people infected with Omikejong was about 3 times that of those infected in Delta, but the latter was hospitalized at a higher rate, and none of the more than 50,000 people infected with Omikeron required a ventilator.
The researchers deduced that the risk of severe illness in Omikejong was "significantly lower" than that of those infected with Derta, and that the length of hospitalization was also shorter than that of the latter. However, the researchers stress that despite the lower "danger," The Opmikeron is much more transmissible than Delta. Valensky also warned on social media that Omilon may not be as serious as Delta, but "more contagious."
In addition, according to the national health commission on January 17, the epidemiological data of many countries suggest that the transmission capacity of the Aomi Kerong variant has been enhanced compared with other variants. The World Health Organization's 23 December 2021 briefing on Omikeron showed a household renewal rate of 15.8 percent, up from 10.3 percent in Delta. According to the UK Health Security Agency, 90% of COVID-19 cases in London and 76% of COVID-19 cases in England were infected with the Aumecreon variant from 19 to 20 December 2021. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website, in the week from December 26, 2021 to January 1, 2022, 95.4% of the new crown pneumonia cases in the United States were infected by the Olmikron variant.
On the 15th, Zhang Wenhong said in an interview with CCTV News that the severe illness of Omicron is declining, but the toxicity cannot be ignored. His team made a wide-ranging comparison of the Ami keron and Delta viruses, the former causing no less fever than the latter. "Judging from the latest calculated case fatality rate in the United States, if nothing is really done, it will cause very serious consequences." If we are fast enough to prevent the epidemic and run ahead of the virus, we can win every dynamic zero victory. Zhang Wenhong said.
Zhang Wenhong said that studies on mutants have confirmed that the new crown vaccine has a significant effect on reducing severe illness and mortality, especially the third dose of vaccine can increase antibody levels by dozens of times. As for the fourth stitch, it is too early to say, there is no need to be so anxious, and more international experience can be used by us.
In addition, the results of the latest real-world study in the United States may further prove Zhang Wenhong's view that the severe illness of Omiljung is declining, but the toxicity cannot be ignored.
On January 13, Case Western Reserve University and the National Institutes of Health jointly published a report on the severity of the first infection of the new crown virus in children under 5 years of age before and after the Omicron epidemic in MedRxiv. The United States has not yet approved COVID-19 vaccines for children under 5 years of age.
The study was based on the Electronic Health Record (EHR) database, which included 79,592 children under the age of 5 who had been infected with COVID-19 for the first time. Of these, 7,201 children were infected when the Omicron mutation strain was dominant, the other 63,203 were infected when Delta was dominant, and the rest were dominated by Omicron but were determined to be infected with delta strain.
The results showed that the hospitalization rate of the Omicron cohort was 1/3 of that of the Delta cohort. The Omicron cohort had 1.04% hospitalizations, corresponding to 3.14% of the Delta cohort, and 0.33% of the Omicron cohort required mechanical ventilation, corresponding to 1.15% of the Delta cohort requiring mechanical ventilation.
Neither cohort was vaccinated, and there were no statistically significant differences between age, sex, health, and treatment; this result almost represented changes in the virulence of the Omicron and Delta mutant strains.
Overall, Omicron-infected people were less severe than those infected with Delta. But about 1 percent of children under 5 years of age who are infected with Omicron require hospitalization and 0.3 percent require mechanical ventilation, which remains a concern.
Uk cases quickly retreated to the Opmi-Kjung outbreak or have peaked?
Although the conclusion of the "flu" of the new crown pneumonia has not yet been fully drawn, many studies around the world have proved that its infection intensity is decreasing.
On December 4 last year, Academician Zhong Nanshan pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter at the second Greater Bay Area (Shenzhen) Vaccine Summit that the new crown epidemic should be normalized, with reference to the situation of influenza, in the future, when the new crown case fatality rate drops to 0.1%, the replication index that is, R0 can reach 1.0-1.5.
Recently, the Aerosol Research Center of the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom also released a research report pointing out that the new crown virus lost 90% of its ability to infect the human body within 20 minutes after entering the air, and most of the infectivity was lost in the first 5 minutes.
Studies show that when the relative humidity of the air is below 50% (similar to the relatively dry air in most offices), the new crown virus loses about half of its infectivity within 5 seconds, and then declines more slowly and steadily, losing another 19% in the next 5 minutes. At 90% humidity (roughly equivalent to steam or shower rooms), the decline in the infectivity of the new coronavirus is even slower, with 52% of the particles still contagious after 5 minutes and only 10% of the virus particles after 20 minutes being contagious.
The research team once again highlighted the key characteristics of the short-distance transmission of the new crown virus, namely that physical distancing and wearing a mask may be the most effective means of preventing infection, and ventilation, while still valuable, may be less effective.
Meanwhile, UK-related research shows that the Omiljung outbreak has peaked in the UK, with cases beginning to decrease across all age groups and in almost all parts of the country.
On Jan. 13, Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London and chief scientist at the ZOE COVID-19 Symptom Study APP, said the data suggested the UK's Wave of Omilon had peaked, with hospitalisations, deaths and early data on the severity of Omilon "looking optimistic".
For the first time this winter, he said, COVID-19 infections are "more common than colds and flu, and symptoms between the two are difficult to distinguish." According to data from the ZOE study, 52.5 percent of people with new cold-like symptoms are likely to be infected with COVID-19, up from 51.3 percent last week.
The UK currently has an average of 183364 new cases per day, a significant 12% drop from 208471 reported last week.
Among those who received at least two doses of the vaccine, there are currently 83,699 new cases per day, an 11 percent decrease from the 93,540 cases reported last week.
The study found that cases are declining in all parts of the country except the northeast, and even in the northeast, the rate of growth in cases has slowed and should soon begin to decline.