Recently, the question of "where did the new crown virus go" has been widely discussed.
Can we eliminate the coronavirus?
Let's take a look at the various characteristics of the new coronavirus to answer this question.
1. The new crown virus is very unspecific.
Animals in nature can become long-term storage hosts for the new coronavirus.
Schematic diagram of the structure of the new coronavirus
The new coronavirus infects animal cells by binding to the ACE2 receptor on the surface of animal mucosal cells through the S protein on the virus shell, so as long as there is ACE2 receptor on the surface of animal mucosal cells, it can be infected by the new coronavirus.
Current research suggests that bats, cats, dogs, tigers, martens, pangolins, snakes, camels, rabbits, ferrets, hamsters, macaques and some other mammals are susceptible to the new coronavirus.
A study by American scientists showed that there is infection and epidemic of the new crown virus on white-lipped deer in North America.
That is to say, at present, there are natural foci of the new crown virus all over the world, and many animals can be infected with the new crown virus, as long as the conditions are right, wild animals in these places may re-infect the new crown virus to humans.
This feature makes it difficult for us to completely eliminate the new crown virus, even if we can completely prevent the new crown virus from spreading in humans, but we cannot prevent the virus from continuing to exist in wild animals.
That is to say, at present, it is almost impossible to completely eliminate the source of infection of the new crown virus on the earth.
2. The new coronavirus is an RNA virus.
It is very fickle.
Photo by electron microscopy of the new coronavirus, downloaded from the Rocky Mountain Laboratory of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The red round one is the new coronavirus
This will lead to the vaccine not being 100% effective, resulting in people who have been infected with the new crown virus and will be infected with the new crown virus after encountering different variants.
The rate of recombination between RNA and RNA of coronaviruses is very high, and it is precisely because of this high rate of recombination that the new coronavirus mutates.
After recombination, the RNA sequence changes, so the amino acid sequence encoded by the nucleic acid also changes, and the protein composed of amino acids changes accordingly, making it antigenic.
The result of the change in antigenicity is that the original vaccine will fail and the immunity will fail.
Before you can come up with a vaccine, the virus has changed!
The variability of the coronavirus makes it difficult to figure out. Many virus types have been found, such as α, β, delta, lambda, Omicron and other types.
Therefore, the current new crown virus vaccine can not completely prevent the infection of the new crown virus, but can only reduce the infection rate and reduce severe infection.
3. The epidemic situation around the world is rising one after another, and the peak of the epidemic in each region or country is not synchronized.
Therefore, the new crown virus will continue to appear in different populations, as long as the population is large enough and long enough, there will be variants.
With the flow of people in the world economy and culture, these variants are brought to all parts of the world, breaking through the immune barriers promoted by vaccination or infection of people everywhere, causing waves of infections.
The mutation of the virus does not necessarily move in the direction of reduced virulence.
Sometimes, the virulence of the variant decreases, and sometimes the virulence of the variant increases.
Scientific studies have shown that influenza viruses with similar characteristics have existed for at least 400 years, and the 1919 world flu outbreak killed 50 million people, but the influenza virus increased its virulence during the mutation process.
By the end of 1921, people who were resistant to the flu virus survived, and as a result, the flu epidemic eased to some extent.
Next, influenza became a local epidemic.
However, there will always be a worldwide influenza pandemic from time to time.
I think the future of the new coronavirus will continue to evolve like the flu.
The genes of those who are highly resistant to the new coronavirus are passed down from generation to generation. The genes of those who cannot resist the virus infection may not be passed on to their offspring.
The virus chooses people, and people are also choosing viruses, natural selection, survival of the fittest.
The people who can read this article are the fittest survivors of the first wave of the new coronavirus epidemic, and most people no longer need to fear the next N wave of the epidemic.
If the peak of the first wave of the epidemic is compared to Mount Everest, then the epidemic in the next few years will be at most the altitude of Mount Tai, or even lower.
After a long time, maybe five years, maybe ten years, maybe decades, maybe hundreds of years, the new coronavirus could become one of the fifth coronaviruses to cause seasonal colds.
At present, there are four coronaviruses that can cause seasonal colds in humans, and we have reason to believe that these four coronaviruses that cause seasonal colds, when they first arrive in the world and infect humans, should also be as strong as the new coronavirus.
It's just that in ancient times, the medical department was developed, and people did not know about the existence of this virus.
How many years have these four coronaviruses existed? Although there is no clear research result, it is at least more than 100 years old!
In short, I believe that the new coronavirus cannot be eliminated, and if it is long enough, it will eventually become the fifth coronavirus to cause seasonal colds.
At that time, ordinary people were infected with the new crown virus, just like the current common cold (seasonal cold), runny nose and fever, just live for two or three days.
At that time, the impact of the new crown virus on our lives was very small.