The circulation association said, "It is expected that the transaction volume of used cars in the country will exceed 17 million in 2021, and the growth rate will exceed 20%. Although the prices of new cars and used cars have increased during the "severe lack of cores", their sales are in a state of contraction due to the limited production capacity of new cars, so that the second-hand car market ushers in a volume and price increase. Looking forward to 2022, the circulation association has given a high expectation: it is expected that the national second-hand car trading volume will exceed 20 million.
"It is estimated that the national car sales in 2021 will be about 25.8 million units, which will be basically the same as in 2020, of which passenger car sales will be about 21 million units, which is expected to increase slightly by 5% compared with 2020; In terms of used cars, the annual trading volume is expected to exceed 17 million units. "The above is the overall judgment of the China Automobile Dealers Association on the auto market in 2021.
In 2021, China's automotive industry is full of achievements. This year, China's car ownership exceeded the 300 million mark, the latest data from the Ministry of Public Security shows that China's motor vehicle ownership has reached 393 million (cars exceeded 300 million), is the world's largest car ownership of the country;
This year, the national second-hand car "inter-provincial general office" is fully implemented, and it is expected that the second-hand car transaction volume will exceed 17 million units, and the growth rate will exceed 20%;
This year, the number of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 8 million. In terms of passenger cars, data from the Federation of Passenger Vehicles shows that from January to November, China's new energy passenger car sales were 2.514 million units, an increase of 178.3% year-on-year. The annual penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 15%, compared with 5.8% in 2020. The "Provisions on the Responsibility for Repair and Replacement of Household Automobile Products" also includes new energy vehicles in the scope of the three guarantees on the basis of the original, and the exclusive car insurance for new energy at the end of the year is also officially launched...
Of course, this year we also experienced difficulties such as chip shortages and repeated epidemics. In the new car market, the problem of "lack of core" began to affect market supply in the second quarter, and new car sales gradually declined. The third quarter became the "darkest hour", car manufacturers cut production sharply, and the delivery cycle of new cars was lengthened, resulting in consumers turning to the second-hand car market. Fortunately, the situation of "lack of core" began to ease from the fourth quarter, and the supply of automobiles tended to be stable. However, research institute Deloitte recently released a report that the chip shortage will continue in 2022 and will not be alleviated until the beginning of 2023.
Source: China Automobile Dealers Association
In terms of the used car market alone, the shortage of chips is good news to some extent. Although the prices of new cars and used cars have increased during the "severe lack of cores", their sales are in a state of contraction due to the limited production capacity of new cars, so that used cars will usher in a volume and price increase in 2021. According to the data, as of November 2021, the cumulative transaction volume of used cars nationwide was 15.9669 million units, an increase of 26.38% year-on-year, far exceeding the growth rate of new cars, of which the transaction volume of sedan models was the largest, at 9.6211 million units, an increase of 27.46% year-on-year; SUV models grew the fastest, up 48.18% y/y to 1,776,200 units.
For a long time, the share of cars in the used car trading volume has always been much higher than that of SUVs, but the retention rate of SUVs has been more advantageous in the near future, and the monthly data has also increased month-on-month, especially in medium and large SUVs. Although the retention rate of medium and large cars is very high, it is mainly a premium component of luxury brands, and mainstream independent brands and joint venture brands are rarely involved.
In December, the second-hand car market continued the trend of price increases, among luxury brands, the highest three-year aging retention rate is still Porsche, and its retention rate has reached 100.1%; It was followed by Lexus, with a retention rate of 91.2%.
Among the mainstream joint venture brands, Toyota and Honda have a high retention rate of 86.9% and 82.0% respectively, but Toyota has declined for two consecutive months.
Among the independent brands, the top retention rates are Wuling, Lynk & Co and Trumpchi. According to the analysis of the circulation association, the increase in the retention rate of Trumpchi mainly comes from new models such as Trumpchi M8 and GS8. In addition, the Roewe retention rate has risen for many consecutive months.
Of course, the high retention rate does not mean that consumers must lose less when changing cars, especially for models that need decoration and mark-ups, which should be viewed dialectically. However, the increase in the retention rate at least shows that its products are stronger and more sought-after in the market. In December last year, the retention rate of the top three independent brands has been no different from that of mitsubishi, Mazda, Nissan, Volkswagen and other joint venture brands, which to a certain extent shows that the upward road of independent brands is getting wider and wider.
Looking forward to 2022, the circulation association has given a high expectation: it is expected that the national second-hand car trading volume will exceed 20 million. The circulation association also said that chained and branded second-hand car dealers are more able to resist the risk of market changes, which has become a trend in the development of the second-hand car industry. (China Economic Network reporter Chen Mengyu)