Shortly after 2022, various car companies can't wait to announce their year-end results for 2021, and Tesla is no exception. As the largest catfish in the global new energy market, Tesla performed well in 2021, even beyond the expectations of the agency. The data shows that Tesla produced 305,840 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021 and delivered 308,600 cars, that is to say, Tesla delivered 936,200 vehicles in 2021, just one step away from the 1 million unit mark, this data increased by 436,000 vehicles compared with 2020, an increase of 87.2%, it can be said that in the new energy market, Tesla is still a ride, far ahead of other opponents. Affected by this, Tesla's stock price soared all the way on January 3, soaring by more than 13% in a single day.
There is no doubt that 2021 will be an extremely successful year for Tesla, but it will also be an extremely difficult year. The epidemic, chip shortages, negative public opinion, large-scale recalls and continuous price increases, Tesla has experienced hardships in this year, but it is not easy to obtain nearly one million production and sales.
For Tesla's 2021 results, Musk, as Tesla's CEO, is obviously satisfied, and shortly after Tesla announced the year-end results, he updated the tweet on the social platform and said, "2022, here we go." "As we all know, 2022 is the traditional Year of the Tiger in China. Does Musk's update tweet at this time mean that 2022 is an extremely important year for Tesla, and if you can't grab it, it may be doomed? As for whether this is the case? Let's take a closer look.
Giant Tesla
Looking back at 2021, the impact of the epidemic and chip shortage on global cars has not weakened at all, after Tesla CEO Musk said that "2021 is a super crazy supply chain shortage year". According to AutoForecast Solutions' latest figures as of December 19, the global automotive market has reduced production by 10.272 million units this year due to chip shortages. It is precisely because of such a harsh living environment that Tesla's annual sales of nearly one million sales report card is more gold-rich.
In detail, Tesla produced a total of 305,840 new cars and delivered 308,600 new cars in Q4 2021, of which 13,109 Model S and Model X models were produced and 11,750 deliveries were made, while the Model 3 and Model Y produced 292,731 units and delivered 296,850 units. Stretched to the full year, Tesla produced a total of 930,422 new cars and delivered 936,172 new cars in 2021, of which 24,390 Model S and Model X models were produced and 24,964 deliveries were made; less than 3% of Tesla's total full-year deliveries. In contrast, the model 3 and model Y models are becoming more and more important, with production of 906,032 units and deliveries of 911,208 units in 2021.
Sequentially, Tesla's fourth-degree production increased by more than 28.5% sequentially; its fourth-quarter deliveries were 28% higher than the record set in the third quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate was as high as 71%, which is the sixth consecutive quarter of Tesla's record deliveries. If you look at the current growth rate, Tesla, which has an annual sales of 1 million, will be achieved in 2022 if there is no accident.
Remember that on March 10, 2020, Tesla ushered in the rolloff of the 1 millionth new car, which was a red Model Y. At that time, I believe that many people were lamenting that Tesla, which had experienced enough unforgettable dark moments and even one step away from bankruptcy, had gradually grown into a giant that could not be ignored in the industry. Now in less than a year, Tesla, the world's largest new energy vehicle company, has raised its annual production and sales to a height of 930,000 vehicles. Such a speed is beyond the reach of opponents.
In contrast, the achievements of "Wei Xiaoli", as the leading new force in China, in 2021 are somewhat insignificant. For example, Xiaopeng Automobile delivered a total of 98,155 vehicles in 2021, an increase of a staggering 263% year-on-year, while WEILAI Automobile delivered 91,429 vehicles, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year; as for the ideal car, its delivery volume in 2021 was 90,491 units. Perhaps they are only one step away from the "mass production threshold" of 100,000 vehicles per year, but the gap with Tesla is frightening.
If in the new energy market, to find a car company that makes Tesla feel threatened, it may only be The Chinese BYD that has completed the transformation. In the sales data released recently, BYD's annual sales in 2021 reached 730093 vehicles, an increase of 75.4% year-on-year. Among them, the annual sales of new energy passenger cars were 593745 units, a year-on-year increase of 231.6%. It can be said that BYD, which has completed the transformation, has gradually approached Tesla in terms of new energy sales. If it can maintain such a growth rate, BYD has no chance to catch up with Tesla.
Although there are opportunities to threaten Tesla in sales, IND still has a long way to go in other aspects, such as revenue and average bicycle price. The data shows that although Tesla's rising prices in recent years have led to a decline in the average price of bicycles, in Q3 2021, Tesla's average bicycle price is still as high as $49,900. In contrast, BYD, which has completed the transformation, has risen in the average price of bicycles compared with previous years, and its average bicycle price has reached 151,700 yuan, which is about 30,000 yuan more expensive than the average price of Great Wall Motors, about 40,000 more expensive than Geely, and about 60,000 more expensive than Changan, becoming the car company with the highest average price of its own brand, but there is still a big gap with Tesla, which is the main reason why BYD wants to develop high-end brands.
In fact, Tesla not only opened a huge gap with its competitors in terms of sales, but also had a presence that other competitors could not match in terms of revenue. According to the financial report, Tesla's revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was $10.389 billion, $11.9 billion and $13.757 billion, respectively, an increase of 74%, 98% and 389% year-on-year. In horizontal comparison, WEILAI's revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 7.982 billion, 8.448 billion and 9.805 billion, respectively, while Xiaopeng's revenue in the first three quarters of fiscal 2021 was 2.951 billion, 3.761 billion and 5.72 billion, respectively, and the ideal was 3.58 billion, 5.04 billion and 7.78 billion, respectively. As for BYD, its revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 40.992 billion yuan, 49.89 billion yuan and 54.307 billion yuan. It can be seen that whether it is "Wei Xiaoli" or BYD, there is still a big gap compared with Tesla.
Not only that, at present, "Wei Xiaoli" is still in the loss, and Tesla has achieved positive profitability for many consecutive quarters. Although BYD has also achieved profitability at present, it is currently in an embarrassing situation of increasing revenue and not increasing profits. Most importantly, Tesla, which is profitable, is getting rid of the carbon credits problem, and the earnings report shows that Tesla Tesla's revenue from the sale of carbon credits in the third quarter was only $279 million. In contrast, BYD has received 1.5 billion yuan in government subsidies in the first three quarters of 2021, and BYD's net profit in the third quarter was only 1.270 billion yuan. It can be seen that once the government subsidies are lost, car companies like BYD that sell nearly 600,000 new energy vehicles per year are still likely to enter losses.
In summary, after years of development, whether in terms of annual sales, revenue or net profit, Tesla has grown into a giant of new energy, which is an unattainable existence for other opponents. With the release of Tesla's annual sales in 2021, some analysts gave the prediction of Tesla sales data in 2022 for the first time. According to relevant agencies, Tesla's sales in 2022 will increase by at least 400,000 vehicles on the basis of 2021, and it is expected that annual sales are expected to exceed 1.4 million.
Due to the general optimism of the market, Tesla's stock price immediately ushered in a surge after the annual sales were announced, and on January 3, Tesla's stock price rose by 13.53%, and the total market value reached $1.2 trillion, an overnight increase of $143.6 billion. As Tesla's stock price soared, Musk's net worth returned to the $300 billion mark, so Musk, who was in a good mood, said on Twitter, "2022, here we go."
The chip shortage has had little impact on Tesla
Tesla in 2021 has done well, but behind the excellent results we have to see that in this crisis of long-term chip shortage, Tesla's performance is the best. In the past 2021, every car company or more will be trapped by chip shortage, for example, Ideal has been in the ideal and Xiaopeng Automobile have been due to chip shortage out of the first delivery and then reload policy, more importantly, Weilai Automobile because of chip shortage and production line adjustment, its sales in October 2021 once plummeted to 3667 units.
As the hegemon of the era of smart cars, Tesla, which delivered 930,000 new cars in 2021, there is no doubt that the difficulties it faces are more than an order of magnitude higher than that of "Wei Xiaoli". The financial report shows that Tesla's global inventory turnover days in the third quarter of 2021 are only 6 days, and it should be known that in the second quarter of the quarter, Tesla's indicator is still 9 days. This figure is well below the industry average. The reduced inventory turnover days mean that Tesla's production capacity is very tight. Due to supply chain shortages, Tesla once offered the trick of delivery and installation in the US market.
However, from the chip shortage crisis in recent years, it has been found that Tesla can stand in the new energy market by relying not only on advanced technology, minimalist design and the advantages of the first mover, but also on its strong response ability and excellent supply chain management system. Qin Lihong, president of Weilai Automobile, once said, "Tesla's development in the past two years is worthy of respect for all users who do business, and the gross profit margin has risen after the price of the entire car has dropped, indicating that its full range of self-research capabilities and the ability to master the supply chain have been displayed, which is a weather vane for the entire industry." ”
For the difficulty of large-scale mass production, Tesla CEO Musk has a deep understanding, he has always stressed that "it is very simple to build a prototype, but it is extremely difficult to achieve large-scale mass production, especially mass production with positive cash flow." The reason why Tesla has been able to stand firm in this chip shortage crisis has a lot to do with the crisis that Tesla has faced several times before.
The reason why Tesla did not cut production on a large scale due to chip shortage in 2021, I think the most important thing is Tesla's strong self-research system. Tesla's ability to keep production lines up and running during this chip shortage crisis is largely due to its strong vertical integration capabilities. In fact, as early as the first quarter of 2021, Tesla began to develop alternative MCU chips and firmware when facing production suspension, and finally solved the problem of MCU chip shortage. Musk has previously said that "in the face of shortages, Tesla was able to quickly rewrite the software and integrate alternative chips into its vehicles."
Bain & Co., based on a 2019 study of the Model 3, found that only a small number of chips are needed on the Model 3 to achieve speaker control and speech and gesture recognition functions. In many other cars, these functions must be controlled independently using more chips.
In addition to a strong self-development system, the reason why Tesla is less affected by the chip shortage is greatly related to its excellent supply chain management. As the oem with the highest degree of vertical integration in the world, Tesla can undoubtedly understand the supply chain situation earlier and use multiple suppliers to ensure supply. Take Tesla's localization as an example, according to the October 2020 report of Ping An Securities, the localization rate of Model 3 parts is close to 70%, and in a recent interview with Tesla Global Vice President Tao Lin said that Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory will achieve an annual production capacity target of 500,000 vehicles by the end of 2021 and has achieved more than 90% of the supply chain localization. It is precisely because of the excellent self-research system and excellent supply chain management that Tesla can be invincible in this chip shortage crisis.
"Tesla of China"?
In 2021, Tesla can achieve such excellent results, in addition to its excellent self-research system and excellent supply chain management, it is inseparable from the contribution of the Chinese market and the Shanghai Gigafactory. According to the data, as of November, the cumulative delivery volume of Tesla's Shanghai factory in 2021 has exceeded the mark of 400,000 vehicles, reaching 413,283 vehicles, an increase of 242% year-on-year. There is no doubt that it is precisely because of the huge contribution of the Chinese market and the Shanghai Gigafactory that Tesla's global production and sales will exceed the 930,000 mark throughout 2021.
In detail, according to the data released by the Association of Automobile Associations, Tesla China's wholesale sales in October and November reached 54,391 and 52,859 vehicles, respectively, of which exports reached 40,666 and 21,127; domestic deliveries of 13,725 new cars and 31,732 vehicles respectively, although the production and sales in December have not yet been announced, but according to the total results announced by Tesla, Tesla China's wholesale sales in December will continue to break through a new high, reaching a staggering 100,000 vehicles. This means that the Shanghai factory will already account for more than half of Tesla's global sales in 2021.
In fact, as early as the beginning of the epidemic, the Chinese market has played an important role in Tesla's global sales. It is understood that in 2020, the Chinese market contributed about one-third of Tesla's global sales, second only to the North American market. With the release of the December data, sales in the Chinese market have surpassed the North American market and become Tesla's largest single market.
In addition to the increasing importance of the market, the Shanghai Gigafactory plays an indispensable role in Tesla's global supply system. According to the data, in May 2021, the Shanghai factory produced more than 34,000 Model 3/Y, in addition to 22,000 units sold to Chinese consumers, more than 11,000 Model 3s were supplied overseas, and in August, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory exported more than 31,379 vehicles. In order to ensure orders in the European and American markets, Tesla even delayed the delivery of domestic orders. At present, Tesla's official website shows that the delivery cycle of Model Y and Model 3 is 12-16 weeks. Although the Berlin Gigafactory is close to production, given the current increasing epidemic in Europe, it is still necessary to put a question mark on when to reach the maximum capacity. There is no doubt that for now, Tesla is not only inseparable from the Chinese market, but also from the supply of China's Shanghai factory.
Not only that, according to the information released by the Shanghai Enterprises and Institutions Environmental Information Disclosure Platform, Tesla is currently conducting an environmental impact assessment of the second phase of the Shanghai Gigafactory Phase I production line optimization project. It is understood that the total investment of the production line optimization project is as high as 1.2 billion yuan, which is expected to be completed in April next year. After completion, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory will become the world's largest new energy vehicle factory, and its annual production capacity will increase from the current 500,000 to more than 1 million.
There is no doubt that with the completion of the expansion factory, Tesla's dependence on the Chinese market and the Shanghai Gigafactory will continue to increase in 2022. Most importantly, with the successive landing of data centers, research and development centers, and design centers, and the exposure of the special models with lower positioning than Model 3, the strategic position of the Chinese market and Shanghai Gigafactory in Tesla's entire territory has risen to an unprecedented height. It can be said that Tesla China today is not a Chinese car company that is better than a Chinese car company.
Summary: For Tesla, it is indeed proud to achieve nearly one million production and sales in the face of the epidemic, chip shortage, negative public opinion and price increase challenges, but this is a thing of the past, and Tesla is facing how to complete the 2022 goal in the next year. In view of Musk's bold words at the 2021 shareholders' meeting, Tesla will face greater difficulties in 2022 in the state of the epidemic and chip shortage will continue.
The most important thing is that with the approaching of the opponent, Tesla's past technology and price advantages are being lost, and once the decision is wrong, it is likely to lose its leading position, especially in the Chinese market, in 2022 Tesla can no longer play with fire, otherwise it is likely to cause fire.