Every year, GameIndustry invites analysts and other industry insiders to review their predictions for last year and make new predictions for the new year. In this year's forecast, more than one analyst believes that as the supply chain gradually returns to normal, the inventory of PS5 and Xbox Series will slowly increase. At the same time, some analysts predict that Sony will comprehensively reform and promote its own subscription service this year.
About next-generation console inventory and "Switch Pro" models
Analyst Piers Harding-Rolls has a high hit rate at this stage every year, and his predictions last year about the continued growth in console hardware sales, the NS becoming the best-selling model with 24 million sales, and the launch of the new NS in 2021 are almost all correct.
In his view, as the sales speed of NS declines, the year-on-year performance of the console market in 2022 will be quite stable. Even so, he and another analyst, Mat Piscatella, both agree that NS will still be the best-selling console this year. However, Piers Harding-Rolls predicts that Nintendo will launch the next generation of consoles by the end of 2024, so we will not see the long-rumored "Switch Pro".
At the same time, both believe that the current sales of PS5 and Xbox Series consoles are still limited by supply, but their supply will slowly increase in the next year (although it is still difficult to meet demand). Piers Harding-Rolls speculates that the PS5 will sell more than the Xbox Series worldwide, reaching 28 million.
About subscription-based services and game extensions
Piers Harding-Rolls believes Sony will overhaul the PS+ service in 2022 to address microsoft's XGP service. He said that maybe we won't see the first-party debut of SIE titles free in a short period of time, but more and more third-party games will adopt this strategy, and the time for first-party games to be released will be shortened. Microsoft will launch a lower-priced mobile cloud game subscription service on top of the existing XGP development strategy and trend.
In addition, he predicts that the business of film and television, music, and commodities derived from game IP will be expanded, and more game adaptations will appear this year.
Analyst Dr. Serkan Toto predicts that there will be fewer game announcements in 2022, as companies with the experience of the previous two years will be able to better measure the impact of the pandemic on work progress and will be more cautious when announcing game release dates. However, Mat Piscatella believes that given the complexity of the current market, the announcement of the determination of the release date will be reduced, and the announcement of changing the release time will increase.
In addition, Dr. Serkan Toto mentioned that as far as he knows, Mario Racing 9 is already in active development, and perhaps Nintendo will release a trailer for this game this year. And given that Microsoft has been working hard to expand Xbox's influence in Japan, such as announcing a partnership with Sega late last year, he believes that there will be more similar announcements in 2022 - according to previous rumors, he believes that Kojima Studio will be a likely investment object.
VR, metaverse, and NFT
In terms of VR, Piers Harding-Rolls had previously predicted that the PSVR2 would be released at the end of 2022, which he believed was still possible, but it may be delayed due to supply constraints. He also predicts that quest 2 will maintain strong sales momentum, and perhaps a Quest 3 announcement will be made by the end of 2022, but this may also be hampered by supply chain conditions.
Multiple analysts agree that while consumers have not shown any enthusiasm, all companies are currently evaluating the commercial potential of new markets such as blockchain, virtual currencies, NFTs, etc., and it is clear that many companies will try accordingly in 2022. However, the value and sustainability of in-game NFTs are difficult to guarantee, many products will inevitably perform poorly, and the relevant regulations will become more stringent, so the field will fall silent after a short period of popularity.
Piers Harding-Rolls speculates that the NTF will be less popular in the second half of 2022, while analyst Stephanie Llamas believes that the associated hype and speculation will run throughout 2022. In addition, she believes that the metaverse will not come anytime soon in 2022, but the number of products advertised around this concept will increase significantly, and eventually we can at least reach a consensus on the definition of the "metacosm" itself.