At the beginning of the month, according to the latest statistics released by VGChartz, the estimated cumulative sales of the Nintendo Switch have reached 100.72 million units, and after the release of the National Bank of China at the beginning of last year, we also mentioned more than once that it is only a matter of time before the NS breaks 100 million, and when the New Year comes, this prediction has become a reality.
Game consoles that have sold more than 100 million yuan in history are:
PS2: 157 million
NDS: 154 million
GB（GBC GBP）：1.19亿
PS4: 106 million
PS1: 103 million
Wii: 102 million
After that:
PS3: 87.4 million
XBOX360: 85.8 million
GBA: 81.53 million
PSP: 80.8 million
It can be clearly seen that it can be divided into three echelons, first of all, PS2 and NDS, leaving off the total sales of 1/3 of the second echelon, and can reach more than 150 million units. The second is GB, PS4, PS1 and Wii, which belong to the second echelon of can break 100 million, of which PS4 is still at the end of its career, because of the optimization of factory processes and the completion of related supply chains before the popularization of PS5, coupled with the adjustment of Sony's business strategy, there is still a certain sales space. However, because of the current global chip supply continues to be tight, the discount of PS4 and PS4 Pro will not be too large, and the long-tail effect of traditional hosts will converge, which can almost be seen as the final sales. Finally, there are some hardware products that have been mixed but still very successful, often stopping at more than 80 million sales.
150 million: The world is not the same
PS2 to the top of the self-needless to say, relying on the new disc technology, so that the game's expressiveness and development difficulty to step out of a step, the contemporaries Nintendo N64 and Sega Saturn were caught in the development of too slow and too little game fatal flaws, playing PS2 almost became the only choice, as a game platform, PS2 at that time almost no defects, is the only power of the king of the game console.
The great success of NDS is different, and the PSP strong blocking in the same period is not a monopoly. The initial NDS shape was fat (lunch box machine), the touch feel was also very bad, and it was defeated in the competition with the PSP, but through the two games of "One Dog" "Ren Tengu" and "One Professor" ("Professor Takata Kawashima, The Joint Research Center for Future Science and Technology of Northeastern University, Supervised the Brain Exercise of Adults DS"), the counterattack on sales was completed, and since then, the gap has been opened.
The secret is to expand the handheld game console from the game otaku's expansion equipment to a family entertainment device, this principle is simple, but Nintendo practice still needs to have a unique entry angle, "Ren Tengu" as an electronic pet, captured the appetite of female groups and housewives, while attacking the opponent PSP is an otaku (OTAKU) toy, then the "mother" will definitely be more inclined to DS when choosing a game console for their children. "Brain Exercise" is to seize the middle-aged uncle and adult men on the commuting road free time, it is said that the developer saw that there are many office workers on the Tokyo subway writing Sudoku exercise book, suddenly want to make a serious puzzle game, the publicity is very strange to use this long title of Professor Takata Kawashima, somewhat similar to the domestic electronic dictionary at that time, giving people a "unclear" impression, also successfully opened the mass market, these office workers and uncles are a group of voice in society If the script of PS2 is to unify the six kingdoms of Qin, DS is to serve the son of heaven to order not to be subordinate.
100 million: The Wall of Famous Machines
Gb handheld machine in the market completely occupies the initiative, the black and white era has a vacuum period of up to two years, without challenging opponents. After NGP and WS entered the black and white handheld, they launched the GBC color upgrade version, and the pricing, performance, and selling points were completely crushed, disrupting the commercial layout of competitors, falling into the embarrassing situation of being in a dilemma, and becoming the first generation of handheld kings. However, due to the fact that the market size has always stayed in adolescents and children's toys, and only developed countries have purchasing power, the sales of pirate machines and copiers in other regions are difficult to count, so they can only be counted as 100 million units.
Finally, there is Nintendo's Wii, the Wii series can see the shadow of the old host before and after in terms of market positioning and functions, such as the switching of the console and the handheld, the home game and the somatosensory controller, and the cheap price, in the competition for the seventh generation, the sudden entry of the Wii will be completely ignorant of sony Microsoft. But the overall sales win does not sum up the entire Wii era, the group of people who buy Wii has been completely controlled by light game enthusiasts, no longer has the NDS "you have me" good ecology, or the SFC era of enthusiast fanaticism.
This has an impact on the game's software share, and the list of popular games on wii, in addition to the old first party, is a pure puzzle game. There's no problem with that, what players like to play, what they have to do on the platform. But the developers will not do puzzle games, their own RPGs, ACT masterpieces have no market on the Wii, Wii's short victory paid a price that still seems to be very huge today - a third-party escape. Therefore, although the soft-hard ratio of Wii is comparable to that of other platform players, it is also an indisputable fact that the platform development is exhausted, which has been reflected in VGChartz's comparative statistics.
At the end of last year, NS sales are about to exceed 100 million, the curve is still maintaining an upward momentum, and even during Christmas, there is a significant rise, whether it can enter the altar of 150 million, the next year (June 60-72) is crucial. Based on our analysis of 150 million clubs and 100 million clubs above, it is not difficult to see the advantages and disadvantages of Switch.
The way to kingship
Is NS the only option? The answer to this question is clearly no, as a console, NS is surrounded by strong enemies, and the next-generation PS5 and XSX can provide a completely crushing gaming experience. The first party of the old ren only has the demeanor of everyone, but does not have the demeanor of a general.
The function of NS can not be said to be "all the games gathered here", only a small number of manufacturers willing to develop cross-platform masterpieces for NS (CDPR "The Witcher 3", CAPCOM "Monster Hunter Rise", MihaYou "Original God"), the exclusive second party (Platinum, Monolith), steam ported independent mini-games. Among them, the former does not have exclusivity, NS may still be a castrated version, the latter is a cross-cutting nature, and the gunman manufacturers themselves are not concerned about the IP operation of the work.
This has become the biggest reason why NS can't reach 150 million. To get rid of this fate, the most direct way is to launch a performance enhanced version of the NS Pro, in the previous article about NS OLED, we talked about the existence of the powerful enhanced version of the NS plan, but due to the current chip market situation, it was eventually downgraded to a screen upgrade. The old Ren is also less likely to backstabbing players, launching new machines in the short term, and the result is, of course, that in the next fiscal year, the NS platform is still not the "only" possibility.
Another point that will be overlooked is that the competitors of NS handhelds are not only consoles, but also mobile games, and the memories of PSV and 3DS being hit by smart phones and failing miserably are vivid.
However, The old Ren has also made efforts within his ability, such as the long-term Nintendo indie game conference, which has been developing individual developers and small teams to port on NS. There will also be some good mobile games to log in to NS, such as "Glory of Kings" and "Pokémon Smash Bros."
The way to hegemony
The operation of NDS squeezing out the PSP in the later period can be seen as the way to dominate, which is the main driving force for NS to enter 150 million. NS has maintained its consistent strengths in the field of "buying hearts and minds", from the limited sprite ball handle of "Peel/Cloth", to the fitness ring that cannot be played without it, to last year's "Assemble! Lao Ren successfully promoted NS as a healthy way of entertainment, distinguishing it from consoles, e-sports games, and mobile casual games.
The problem is that it still has not been able to get out of the shackles of the video game machine, because the handheld has been fighting with hackers since ancient times, the NS system is completely closed, ensuring the least BUG vulnerabilities, the result is that it can not even transmit data with the computer, send data can only rely on the Wifi environment, copy into the data is even more do not think, which also led to the NS function is very single, in addition to playing the game is to see the game mall, listening to songs, watching films, communication is not OK, multimedia functions are almost blank. After the smartphone to take over this full set of solutions, the Switch was naturally blocked in the game device, although there are a variety of games out of the circle, after all, it is still a game console. Of course, because of 100% of the genuine machine and 99.9% of the share of genuine games, the benefits brought by NS to the old ren are much better than the GB machine, and the sales volume of more than 119 million yuan should also be out of the question.