4.5 million people resigned last November! What is driving the "great wave of resignation" in the United States?

The phenomenon of the "great wave of resignation" in the United States is still continuing. According to US media reports on the 4th, in November last year, the number of voluntary resignations in the United States reached a record 4.5 million. Vacancies remained near-record levels, suggesting that the U.S. job market remained tight late last year. Some analysts said that the epidemic and inflation are still the main reasons driving the wave of resignation, and the rise in a large number of jobs and wages has also made more Americans decide to resign. However, the new coronavirus mutation that has swept the United States is likely to bring new resistance to the labor market.

"The Great Wave of Resignation"

The U.S. Department of Labor said on the 4th that the total number of resignations in the United States in November last year broke another record, reaching 4.5 million. The resignation rate was 3 percent, up from 2.8 percent the previous month, returning to its highest level in September.

Specifically, the accommodation and foodservice services sector saw the largest increase in resignations, with more than one million resignations in November. The number of resignations from the transport, warehousing and utilities sectors has also increased significantly. The number of resignations in the health care and social assistance sector has soared as the number of cases has increased.

CNBC said the phenomenon was known in the United States as a "great wave of resignations."

At present, the number of job vacancies in the United States has far exceeded the number of job seekers, resulting in increased mobility in the U.S. labor market.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, there were 10.6 million job openings in the U.S. at the end of November last year, down slightly from 11 million in October last year. However, according to the U.S. government's non-farm payrolls report released that month, the total number of unemployed and job-seeking people in the month was only 6.88 million.

However, the number of recruits increased slightly in November to a total of 6.7 million, and the number of layoffs and layoffs in the month was also relatively stable. This shows that companies have made at least some progress in filling job vacancies.

According to Bloomberg, the US Department of Labor will also release the December employment report on the 7th local time.

Multiple factors

Outside analysts believe that there are multiple reasons for the labor shortage in the United States.

CNBC quoted Robert Frick, an economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, as saying that the "great wave of resignations" showed no signs of abating and that "people's burnout and fear of the epidemic still exist." But at the same time, many Americans are confident of resigning because of the large number of job openings and rising wages. ”

The epidemic is still an important factor affecting people's resignation.

Nick Bunker, director of economic investigation at the Real Employment Lab, an international labor market monitoring agency, said the resignations were still concentrated in low-wage industries directly affected by the epidemic.

The high job turnover rate in the healthcare industry also reflects the pressure of the epidemic. In November, the industry's resignation rate reached 3 percent, the highest level since 2000. Experts point out that the resignation of health care workers will increase the pressure on the healthcare system.

Economists, on the other hand, also point out that many low-wage workers are being attracted to other high-paying jobs.

According to Liz Wilke, chief economist at Gusto Employment Services, much of the turnover occurs in lower-paying industries, where people jump to new jobs for higher wages, greater flexibility or better job opportunities.

Concerns about inflation are also driving a wave of resignations. According to The New York Times, government data shows that price increases have outpaced wage increases in recent months. Last November, the consumer price index rose 6.8 percent, soaring to its highest level in nearly 40 years. But in the same month, the average American hourly wage rose by only 4.8 percent.

Daniel Zhao, a senior economist at the career website Glassdoor, believes that in a time of fierce competition from employers, rapid wage increases, and high inflation, if you don't change jobs, you are likely to be left behind by the market.

Some analysts also pointed out that more Americans are trying to transform into entrepreneurship, unable to find anyone to take care of children during the epidemic, and the increase in the retired population, which has also contributed to the "big wave of resignation".

The "great wave of resignations" may continue

In the face of another record number of resignations, the outside world can't help but wonder: Will the "big wave of resignations" continue until 2022?

Some experts have pointed out that the US retail industry, hotel industry, leisure industry, medical industry, etc. are bearing the impact of the wave of resignation, and some small and medium-sized enterprises may pass on costs to consumers, further promoting inflation.

In this regard, analysts believe that the impact of the Omilton strain has not yet been reflected in the November data. The "Opichron Wave," which has continued since last December, is likely to create new headwinds to the U.S. labor market.

Michael Pearce, senior economist at Capital Capital Macro, said in the report that the surge in infections has put pressure on the high-touch service industry and will have a greater impact on labour supply, as employees will be quarantined once they test positive.

The US "Business Insider" website also believes that the "big wave of resignations" in 2022 may continue. Eight consecutive months of high job rates suggest that labor shortages and the reshaping of the labor market are likely to become permanent features of America's post-vaccine era.

Some experts pointed out that aside the epidemic factor, due to the population problem in the United States, the problem of labor shortage is unlikely to ease soon.

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that most of the 5 million people who have withdrawn from the labor market since the outbreak are over 55 years old and are likely not to return to work. Among them, the number of early retirement and natural retirement is 1.5 million and 1 million, respectively.

Ron Hetrick, senior economist at Emsi Burning Glass Data Analytics, said the current labor shortage is just a microcosm of long-term employment trends that companies must be prepared for.

"With baby boomer retirements surging, millennial labor force participation rates falling, newborn birth rates falling, and immigrants falling, don't expect labor shortages to be fully addressed in the new year." Hertrick said.

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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Title Image Source: Visual China Photo Editor: Shao Jing

Source: Author: Qiu Wenhan