In addition to the bright line of the Philippines, the layout of the United States in the South China Sea has also laid a dark line within Vietnam. However, now this dark line has been dug up by China and Vietnam, and a series of "heavyweights" have been involved.
In the past two years, many high-ranking figures in the US government, including President Biden, Vice President Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, have visited Vietnam one after another, trying to woo them in an attempt to lure the pro-US faction in Vietnam's top leadership into taking the crooked path of "pro-US and Far China" by promoting US-Vietnamese economic and trade investment and supporting Vietnam's replacement of China's industrial chain. However, now this dark line has been dug up by China and Vietnam hand in hand, and it is exposed to the sun. Since the beginning of this year, Vietnam has launched wave after wave of "anti-corruption accountability", and one after another southern real power figures have been liquidated, often given for "private teaching" in economic and trade exchanges with the West.
(Last year, then Vietnam's president, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, abruptly resigned, giving up his seat to the young Vo Van Thanh)
There are reasons why the United States wants to win over Vietnam as an anti-China "ally": First, the self-defense and counterattack war against Vietnam and the long-term conflict on the Sino-Vietnamese border that occurred in the late 70s and mid-80s of the last century made many people in Vietnam resentful and wary of China, unwilling to get too close to China, and even willing to retaliate; Second, Vietnam and China have sovereignty conflicts over some islands and reefs in the South China Sea, and the issue has not been properly resolved, which is precisely what the United States wants to "stir up" in the South China Sea. Third, there is a huge difference between the north and the south of Vietnam, the United States supported a puppet government in South Vietnam during the Vietnam War, and has cultivated a large number of residents full of anti-communist ideology in South Vietnam, and after the defeat of the Vietnam War, the United States sent a large number of "Belt and Road Party" from South Vietnam to the United States, and the descendants of these people are large in number and have a great influence on Vietnam, resulting in a huge number of anti-communist and anti-China "public knowledge" in Vietnamese society, mainly in the southern faction, which is more likely to be manipulated by the United States to incite the anti-China wave.
(In March this year, then Vietnam's president Vo Van Thuong also resigned.)
But the United States still miscalculated. After all, Vietnam is ruled by the Communist Party and shares a common ideology with China. In recent years, the forces cultivated by the United States in Vietnam have tried several unsuccessful "color revolutions" (all of which were small-scale riots and demonstrations), which have made the Vietnamese party and government more vigilant, and they have become aware of the serious social problems facing Vietnam and have begun to solve them. At the same time, Vietnam's economy is developing rapidly under the Belt and Road Initiative advocated by China, which has also made Vietnam deeply realize that only by relying on the big tree of China can it enjoy the shade.
As a result, Vietnam has carried out a drastic anti-corruption campaign in recent years. However, the southern factional forces supported by the United States believe in the "free economy" of the United States and are particularly corrupt, so the southern faction is the main high-ranking official who has fallen from power in Vietnam's political circles. In March last year, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, then Vietnam's president, abruptly resigned, giving up his seat to the young Vo Van Thanh. At the same time, Vietnam's Deputy Prime Minister Pham Binh Minh and Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Thanh, who is in charge of epidemic prevention work, were also asked to resign from their party posts. This year, the earthquake in Vietnamese politics continues:
- At the end of March this year, the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam held a meeting on the same day and agreed to the resignation of Vo Van Thuong as a member of the Political Bureau of the CPV Central Committee and the president of Vietnam. The Fukuyama case may also be related to the case of Vietnam's richest woman, Truong My Lan, who was recently sentenced to death by Vietnam's Supreme Court. In addition to Vo Van Thanh, another Politburo member named Hoang Thi Thi Thi Lan was also expelled from the party at this meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, also for serious violations of discipline and accepting bribes.
- At the end of April this year, Ong Dinh Hue also resigned as a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam and chairman of the National Assembly of Vietnam
- In May this year, the investigating police of the Ministry of Public Security of Vietnam prosecuted and approved the arrest and detention of Mai Tan Dung, the former director of the government office, for "abuse of power in the performance of official duties." From 2016 to 2021, Mai Tan Dung served as director of the government office under then-Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc. He also served as a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam for two terms.
- Recently, Truong Thi Mai, the No. 5 figure of the Communist Party of Vietnam, is currently a member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, permanent secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, and head of the Organization Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, resigned.
(President of the National Assembly of Vietnam Ong Dinh Hue visits China)
On the other hand, just last month, four senior Vietnamese officials, from the chairman of the National Assembly to cabinet ministers, visited China intensively in just 20 days, including Vietnamese National Assembly Chairman Ong Dinh Hue, Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son, Vietnamese Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, and Vietnamese Central Foreign Minister Le Huai Trung. It was a critical period for the political earthquake in Vietnam, and it was clear that both Vietnam and China needed to maintain more frequent high-level communication than usual at this time. The Chinese side is obviously well aware of the small moves made by the United States in Vietnam, so it has actively or passively engaged in many high-level contacts and talks with Vietnam from last year to this year. A logical judgment is that the Chinese side will inform the Vietnamese side of the US intelligence information it has in its possession, help the Vietnamese top leadership maintain the correct development path, and ensure that they will not be led astray by the pro-US faction, let alone undermine Vietnam's development achievements.
(The Chinese and Vietnamese Coast Guard ship formations conducted a joint patrol in the Beibu Gulf at the end of April this year)
As far as the game between China and the United States in the South China Sea is concerned, as long as China can stabilize other ASEAN member states except the Philippines, and most importantly, Vietnam, one of the main parties to the South China Sea dispute, China will not lose its dominance and initiative in the South China Sea.