A few days ago, I visited Zhihu and saw such a topic:
This problem appeared in my mind half a year ago when BYD's DM-i order broke out, but what I think is not the relationship between "suppressed" and "suppressed", but in the context of the success of the DM-i series, can other independent brands with similar technologies achieve similar achievements in the hybrid market, and thus realize the counterattack on the joint venture camp from another path, and even reshape the entire market pattern?
Obviously, the subject is from BYD's point of view, and I am dm-i thought of the development of the entire autonomous camp and the entire market, there are fundamental differences in positions, but the answer pursued is implicit:
If the new hybrid vehicles of Geely, Changan, Great Wall and other brands can shine, then the growth of BYD's DM-i series is bound to be affected;
On the other hand, if the DM-i series, which has such a rapid momentum, can really be suppressed, it means that the sales of other brands must have reached a considerable scale. Considering the high price of these hybrid vehicles, the fuel vehicles that are basically in line with or even surpass the same level of joint venture brands, the independent camp has naturally achieved a counterattack on the joint venture camp.
With such a reasoning, then simply simplify the problem and follow the question that is known: Can Geely, Changan, and Great Wall, which have recently made hybrid models, inhibit the growth of BYD's DM-i series?
What does it take to "block" DM-i?
In addition to BYD, in the past year, it has released new hybrid technologies, models or strategies of its own brands, including but not limited to the Great Wall's "Lemon", Chery's "Kunpeng", Changan's iDD and Geely's "Thor". Gac Trumpchi also unveiled a strategy for full hybridization at last month's Guangzhou Auto Show after borrowing Toyota's THS hybrid system on the new GS8.
At the technical level, the hybrid systems of these brands have their own characteristics, and they are not much different from BYD's DM-i technology. For example, the Great Wall Lemon Hybrid has two gears in the transmission mechanism, chery Kunpeng Hybrid uses a 3-speed dual-clutch transmission, Geely's Thor Hybrid relies on double planetary gears for three gears, and Chang'an's Blue Whale iDD system uses a three-clutch structure (essentially based on a traditional 6DCT dual-clutch transmission).
Specific technical differences are not elaborated here, and if you want to talk through, each system needs a long article to analyze. It is clear that they basically have fuel consumption and power levels comparable to BYD DM-i technology, but the implementation method and detail experience are slightly different, at least between BYD, Great Wall, Geely, and Chery, there is no generation difference in their hybrid technology (the tandem structure used by Changan Blue Whale iDD is more traditional, and the actual performance remains to be seen).
As long as you can cross the sea, everyone doesn't care whether you fly over, swim over, or build a bridge to walk over. In the field of hybridization, a number of independent brands have been like BYD, with technology and products that can match or even surpass the two fields of hybrid, and the rest that needs to be truly PK is the comprehensive product strength and cost performance.
Among the new generation of hybrid models that have been listed or have been pre-priced, including Weipai's Latte HEV, Macchiato HEV, PHEV, Haval's H6S HEV and Red Rabbit HEV, and Geely's Hoshigoku L Hi· The X version, Changan's UNI-K iDD PHEV version has held a test drive activity, but has not yet entered the pre-sale stage, and the Chery Tiggo 8 PLUS Kunpeng e+ PHEV version, which was unveiled as early as the middle of the year, has been postponed many times, and the "limited pre-sale" has recently been carried out, but the price range has not been announced.
So there are not many competitors that can be compared at present, considering that BYD DM-i are all PHEV plug-in hybrids, the only direct opponents are WEY's Macchiato DHT PHEV, and currently only HEV versions of latte DHT and Hoshigoku L Hi · X, there is an indirect competitive relationship.
How much of a threat is a direct/indirect competitor to DM-10 that has been listed?
Let's talk about the Great Wall first.
Wei's Macchiato, the first model under the Great Wall to carry a DHT lemon hybrid, launched a HEV version at the end of September this year, but its performance after the listing was mediocre, with only 640 vehicles in November. The MACCHITO PHEV version, which was launched in mid-November, only had 146 vehicles in the past half month.
Specifically look at the model: Macchiato PHEV launched two configurations, pure electrical endurance is 110 kilometers, the guidance price is 166,800 and 177,800, the similar level of BYD Song PLUS DM-i, the price range is 14.68-19.98 million, but if you only look at the corresponding 110 km endurance two-wheel drive version, its price range is 15.98-16.98 million, and the difference between the MACCHIDO PHEV is within 8,000 yuan.
Considering the relatively high brand positioning (after all, the corresponding BYD should be Haval, and WEY is the high-end brand of the Great Wall that is higher than Haval), Macchiato PHEV proves that WEY can break the wrist with BYD's DM-i in terms of price, but BYD can pull the price down to less than 150,000 through the version of lower pure electric endurance, Qin PLUS DM-i is even as low as 110,000 range, and whether the Great Wall will pull the price of the PHEV version into this range in the future. It will have a decisive impact on subsequent sales volumes.
In addition to Macchiato, Great Wall's HEV hybrid models that have already been listed include latte DHT (159,800-17.98 million) and Haval Chitu DHT (138,800). If the brand positioning of Macchiato and Latte is slightly higher than THAT, Haval Red Rabbit should be BYD's competitors.
However, the pricing of the Red Rabbit HEV is basically equivalent to the same configuration, but the size of the Song Pro DM-i is comparable, and does not mention the advantages of new energy licenses and pure electric endurance, dm-i series in the enjoyment of purchase tax-free subsidies, the terminal price is still one level lower than the Red Rabbit HEV, it is expected to be difficult to have an impact on the DM-i series.
The H6S DHT hybrid version listed at the end of October, the price of the two configurations is 154,900 and 164,900, its size level is basically the same as the Song PLUS DM-i, there is no large battery pack, charging function, new energy license and purchase tax-free blessing, the price of H6S DHT is still nearly 10,000 yuan more expensive than the 51 km endurance version of the Song PLUS DM-i equivalent configuration. If the H6 series launches a PHEV version in the future, the price will undoubtedly be higher, and it will be more difficult to shake the status of DM-i.
As for Geely's Thor Hybrid, the current first model Star-Yue L HEV version has entered the pre-sale state, with a pre-price of 173,700, considering the excellent mechanical quality and overall quality, although the body of this car is still smaller than BYD's positioning of the mid-size SUV Tang DM-i, but the two can essentially be regarded as the corresponding competitors.
Tang DM-i price range of 18.98-21.68 million, taking into account the advantages of free purchase tax, its pure electric endurance of 52 kilometers of the entry-level version, bare car price is basically comparable to the Star More L HEV, but considering the functional configuration, the Star More L HEV version corresponds to the 199,800 Tang DM-i.
That is to say, if you don't care whether you can charge it, the first model of the Geely Raytheon hybrid system, the Hoshikoshi L HEV version, has achieved a lower price threshold compared to the same level of DM-i competitors.
Of course, Geely's Thor Hybrid also includes the PHEV version, whether it can reach or surpass BYD DM-i in terms of cost performance depends on the price difference after increasing the battery pack, and to what extent it can be controlled.
Referring to the Great Wall's products, weY Macchiato PHEV's pure electric endurance 110 km PHEV version, compared to the same configuration of the HEV version is 11% more expensive, according to this ratio speculation, the future PHEV version of Xingyue L, the price will be about 195,000 yuan, just the same as the same endurance, configuration level of Tang DM-i.
It can be inferred that Geely's future hybrid products, PHEV version is likely to match the price of BYD DM-i, and its HEV version even if it lacks purchase tax subsidies, it still hopes to have a lower price threshold than the same level DM-i models.
Of course, this alone does not mean that Geely can shake the status of BYD, but the currently thriving DM-i series still faces a risk that cannot be ignored:
The advantages of DM-i plug-in mode are not safe
In addition to fuel saving, can be on the green card, can be pure electric endurance, enjoy the purchase tax subsidy is also the core advantage of the DM-i series, but the state's support policy for PHEV plug-in hybrid is not stable, it has been rumored that Shanghai will no longer give new energy licenses to PHEV models in 2023, and with the rapid increase in sales scale, the state's purchase tax subsidies for PHEV models may also be cancelled.
While not sure when this will happen, these policies are almost certain to happen in the long run.
Unlike geely, Chery, and Great Wall hybrid systems that are compatible with HEV and PHEV, the structure of BYD's DM-i system is the simplest, and the cost is easier to control, but the overall dependence on the battery is higher, and it is more difficult to be compatible with the HEV version in the follow-up. Even if the HEV version is launched based on this set of technologies, power, fuel consumption and even the overall NVH performance may be discounted.
In this case, the advantages of the DM-i series are weakened, while the price advantages of other HEV hybrid models are highlighted, and the competitive situation in the hybrid market may undergo new changes.
In addition, BYD's focus other than pure electric vehicles has been fully concentrated on the DM-i series, which is because its own pure fuel model sales are very small, and after the DM-i sales explosion, the pure fuel lineup can even be directly abandoned.
Similar to Geely, Changan, Great Wall, Chery and other brands, the focus of sales is still on fuel models, so when launching hybrid models, these brands must also avoid the impact on their own fuel models, so the pricing of the hybrid version will naturally not be very aggressive.
Once the position of these brands in the pure fuel market is threatened by BYD DM-i, they will undoubtedly gradually increase in the field of hybridization, and gradually enter the state of inner roll, and what kind of pattern the hybrid market will be, it is difficult to say now.
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