| Wall Street betting on the "second half" of Tesla? Traditional cars and EV stocks fly together

Overnight, Ford shares soared 11.67 percent to close at $24.31, a 20-year high. Catching up in the field of electric vehicles is helping the stock price of this traditional car company to catch up later.

Last year, Ford's stock price rose about 140 percent, surpassing Tesla, General Motors and a host of electric vehicle startups to become the most eye-catching automaker in 2021. As of Tuesday's close, the company's market capitalization soared to $97.149 billion, about to break the 100 billion mark and surpass General Motors and electric vehicle maker Rivian.

Ford announced on Tuesday that it plans to double the annual production capacity of the F-150 Lightning, an all-electric pickup truck, to 150,000 units by mid-2023. The company plans to start receiving orders on Jan. 6. In early December last year, Because the number of electric pickup trucks exceeded expectations, Ford had to temporarily suspend pre-ordering. Previously, the company had received about 200,000 non-binding bookings.

Wall Street bets on EV new story Who will be the "second half" Tesla?

Daniel Ives, managing director of Wedbush Securities, said in an interview with First Financial Reporter, "As Tesla's market capitalization exceeds trillions of dollars, investors are increasingly interested in new innovative electric vehicle stories. ”

While Tesla's dominance of the global electric vehicle market will remain unshakable in the coming years, Wall Street is betting on all the other winners in the industry.

The first financial reporter found that in the case of considerable revenue, the market value of Rivian and Lucid listed last year has reached 91.283 billion US dollars and 64.883 billion US dollars, respectively.

Nick Cola, co-founder of DataTrek Research, explains: "Investors buying Rivian's stock is actually an option investment, an option that Rivian can fulfill its mass production commitments. ”

Keller believes that behind the soaring valuation of electric vehicle stocks, it reflects the imbalance between investors' investment demand and market supply. "Investors are looking for any possible investment opportunities in autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles, however there is a lack of sufficient investment targets in the market. That's why Tesla and Rivian are hotly sought after and valuations are soaring. He explained.

Ives expects the green wave of electrification and intelligence of cars to drive a $5 trillion market cake over the next 10 years, with Tesla accounting for 2.5 trillion of that share. Who can seize the remaining 50% of the market opportunity? According to Ives, "electric vehicle stock prices reflect performance and profit growth potential for the coming years."

Patrick Steinemann, co-head of Global Mobility Group Investment Banking at Bank of America, expects that the influx of investment funds from batteries to rechargeable cars in the automotive electrification industry chain will push companies in the industry to continue to spin off their businesses and seek to go public.

The bank expects industry-wide IPO financing to reach about $100 billion between 2021 and 2023.

In fact, the biggest IPO of 2021 stemmed from this. Last year, electric truck maker Rivian raised $13.7 billion when it went public in the United States.

Ford and GM are catching up and outperforming Tesla last year

At the same time, driven by this wave, Wall Street is also revaluing traditional car companies such as Ford, General Motors and Volkswagen.

In fact, in the past 12 months, Ford's stock price has increased by 185.33%. Over the same period, Tesla shares rose 57.53%, General Motors shares rose 62.28%, and Rivian's cumulative increase since the IPO was 29.99%.

Ford expects the company's electric vehicle capacity to increase to 600,000 units per year by 2024. In addition, with the continuous production of battery plants and assembly plants in Tennessee and Kentucky, production capacity is expected to be further increased after 2025.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said: "For Ford, this is indeed a breakthrough year, and the most important year in the company's strategy since the financial crisis. ”

Stephen Guilfoyle, a former veteran trader on the New York Stock Exchange, believes that the hot pre-order of the Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup shows that "the industry as a whole is lagging behind Tesla in terms of electric vehicle and battery technology development." In terms of interpreting american consumers, the entire industry lags behind Ford. ”

Kumar Galhotra, Ford's president of the Americas and International Markets, predicted in an interview that electric vehicles will account for 10 percent of the U.S. market.

According to industry research firm LMC Automotive, electric vehicles account for 2.7% of total U.S. auto sales in 2021, up from 1.8% in 2020.

"The key question now is how quickly we will ramp up production capacity to meet market demand," Galhotra said. ”

In addition, at tomorrow's Consumer Electronics Show (CES), GM CEO Mary Barra will unveil a new Chevrolet Silverado E electric pickup truck, which is expected to be available in the next 12 to 18 months.

Ives is bullish on GM's stock price performance and gives an overweight rating, with a target pricing of $85 for the next 12 months. "The (valuation) re-rating driven by electric vehicles is underway," he noted. If the company's vision for electric vehicles takes shape over the next 12 to 18 months, the stock price is expected to rise to $100. ”

Overnight, GM shares were trading at $65.74.

Will the mass production commitment of EV stocks "skip votes"?

Investors are betting that more EV makers are on track to achieve true mass production in 2022.

Admittedly, before achieving this goal, automakers need to deal with supply chain terminals, labor shortages, inflationary pressures, increasing competition, and potentially rising capital costs.

Rivian's earnings data shows that the company sold 11 cars in the third quarter of 2021 and generated $1 million in revenue. The latest quarterly loss was $1.23 billion. The company also expects that the production target for 2021 will be "about a few hundred units less" than the previously set of 1200 units.

Electric vehicle startups Nikola and Lordstown have both postponed production plans.

Challenged by supply chain issues such as issues, Lordstown postponed commercial production from the second quarter of this year to the third quarter. The company announced last September that it would sell its Ohio facility to Foxconn to meet high capital requirements.

Last year, Toyota replaced GM to top the list of the nation's best-selling automakers, becoming the first foreign car brand to top the U.S. market in nearly 120 years and the first time GM has lost its championship since 1931.

Data released Tuesday showed that Toyota motor vehicles sold 2.332 million units in the United States in 2021, up 10% from the previous year, due to the shortage of semiconductor chips, while General Motors was 2.218 million units, down 13% from the previous year. Since the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disrupted production of key components, Toyota has reserved more parts and chips in stock.

In contrast, Tesla's supply chain has been much less affected by chip shortages, given the ability to switch to more accessible chips.

In 2021, Tesla delivered 936,172 new vehicles throughout the year. Elon Musk said he hopes to increase Tesla's car sales to 20 million vehicles per year by 2030. To achieve this growth goal, Tesla will start production of the Model Y at its new plant in Austin, Texas, this year, and its Gigafactory in Brandenburg, Germany, is nearing completion.

As of Tuesday's close, Tesla shares were trading at $1,149.59 and the company's market capitalization was $1.15 trillion.