(Report Producer/Author: Western Securities, Li Yanli)
1. What is a virtual person/virtual idol?
Virtual Human is a virtual human that is produced through technological means such as modeling, motion capture or AI, and is presented through a display device. The value created by virtual people is mainly to break through the physical space limitations and provide more immersion, participation and interaction.
There are many ways to classify virtual people: the first is classified according to technology, virtual people can be divided into algorithm-driven (AI real-time or face pinching, etc.) and real people-driven types (motion capture); the second is classified according to visual dimensions, virtual people can be divided into 2D types and 3D types; the third is classified according to the structure, virtual people can be divided into digital types (users online viewing) and holographic types (user live naked-eye viewing); the fourth according to the business model classification, virtual people can be divided into IP types (KOL type, song and dance type, brand type, entertainment The company launched the idol type, the star twin type) and the non-IP type (functional, academic and identity type).
The term virtual idol was born in Japan in the 1980s, and in the early days, it was biased towards the second dimension, mainly referring to virtual singers, such as Hatsune Mirai, and the virtual idol group A-SOUL launched by Lehua Entertainment. With the iteration of technology, the future virtual idol is closer to the concept of digital people. The history of virtual idol development is as follows:
1980s (in its infancy): Virtual characters are introduced into the real world, with virtual idols ranging from 0 to 1
Virtual idols can be traced back to Japan, and the virtual idol-making techniques of this period were mainly drawn by hand. Representative virtual dolls include: Japanese virtual singer Akimi Hayashi and British virtual actor Max Headroom.
Early 21st Century (Exploration Period): Virtual idols enter the film and television entertainment industry and enter the exploration period
In the early 21st century, virtual idols were further developed as CG technology and motion facial capture technology gradually replaced traditional hand-drawn painting. Representative virtual idols of this period include: Hatsune Mirai, Lo Tianyi, Lord of the Rings Gollum and Rise of the Apes Caesar. Due to the fact that the CG technology and motion facial capture technology in this period were not mature enough, and the presentation form was relatively rough, the virtual idol market was small and had not yet been widely accepted by the public.
2016-2019 (primary stage): Technological breakthroughs, virtual idol application further strengthened
After 2016, with the development of technologies such as artificial intelligence, modeling, rendering, and motion facial capture, the application of virtual idols has been further strengthened. The people-driven virtual idol Trip Love opened a new form of virtual anchors with goods in the live broadcast room, and then a large number of virtual anchors (Vtubers) appeared. Bilibili "Virtual Dimensional Plan" UP lord Xiaoxi and Xiao Tao also became representative virtual idols of the period. Companies such as Bilibili, Sogou, Baidu and BKizuna AI have laid out virtual human tracks.
2020-present (growth period): capital increased layout, rapid development of the industry
Since 2020, with the increase of capital layout and the increasing maturity of technology, the application mode of virtual idols has shown a refined, intelligent and diversified development trend. For example: virtual internet celebrity KOL, celebrity avatar virtual idol, virtual brand spokesperson and movie virtual idol, etc. Virtual influencer KOL's cooperation with fashion, beauty and other brands has attracted the attention of the masses and generated better commercial value, such as: Brazilian-Spanish mixed race girl Miquela Sousa, China's AYAYI and Ling Ling. Virtual brand ambassadors promote brands, such as Colonel Sanders of KFC and Hua Xizi's virtual brand ambassadors. The development of cinematic virtual idols has contributed to the development of the film and television industry, such as the red-haired ghosts, black-armored samurai, and red-armored samurai in "Assassination of a Novelist". With the increase in the popularity of the meta-universe, the head Internet company uses virtual people as a cutting point to layout, such as: Tencent, Ali, ByteDance, Xiaohongshu, Douyin and NetEase.
The application of virtual people's technology involves two processes: making virtual people and using virtual people by users. Making a virtual person is divided into two steps, the first step is to make a static virtual person, and the second step is to make the virtual person come alive. Making a static virtual person involves modeling and rendering technology, and there are two ways to make the virtual person come alive, one is to make a real-person-driven virtual person through motion face capture technology, and the other is to make an algorithm-driven virtual person through AI technology, speech synthesis technology and CG technology. Finally, in order to allow users to get a stronger sense of immersion, participation and interaction in the use of virtual people, XR/VR/AR and hologram technology should be used in the user's use of links.
Second, what is the market space and competition pattern of virtual people?
Chinese virtual people/virtual idols are in the growth stage, and the market size has maintained rapid growth. As virtual people are increasingly used in various scenarios in life, and based on people's curiosity about trendy affairs, people are gradually beginning to accept virtual people, and the virtual people/virtual idol industry is expected to develop rapidly. According to Ai Media Consulting, the core market size of China's virtual idols in 2020 is 3.46 billion yuan, with an increase of 69.3%. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the size of China's virtual analog nucleus market will reach 62.2/120.8/20.52 billion yuan, respectively, with a growth rate of 79.6%/94.3%/69.8% respectively. In 2020, the market size driven by Chinese idols was 64.56 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 70.3%. It is estimated that the market size driven by Chinese idols in 2021-2023 will be 107.49/1866.1/333.47 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 66.5%/73.6%/78.7% respectively.
The main players in the virtual person can be analyzed from their industrial chain. The virtual human industry chain can be divided into the basic layer, the platform layer and the application layer. The main user of the base layer and the platform layer is 2B, while the main user of the application layer is 2C.
The base layer is the tool layer, and the software and hardware are used as the cornerstones of the development of virtual people. For example, VR/AR and other 3D display devices bring a sense of immersion and realism to users who use virtual people, and modeling software can model the human body and clothing of virtual digital people in three dimensions. Representative companies in the basic layer are Meta, Intronics, EPSON, Nvidia, Unity and Epic Gmaes.
The platform layer is the provider of virtual human solutions. The platform layer uses technology such as modeling, rendering, and motion capture to bring virtual people to life, and well-known companies include Vicon, Tencent, Baidu, Sogou, SenseTime, Chuangfan Technology, and iFLYTEK.
The application layer adds a "soul" to the virtual person, creates and operates the virtual human set, and ultimately applies it to a variety of scenarios. Leading companies in the application layer include BlueFocus, Mango Super Media and Sub-Culture.
At the level of the competitive landscape, the virtual person industry is still in the early stage of development, and there is no absolute leader. Well-known enterprises in the market include Tianya Henian, Zhongke Shenzhi, Mofa Technology and Chuangyi Technology.
Tenya Henian is a Chinese VOCALOID avatar operator. The company created the Vsinger brand with virtual singers as the core, and developed a number of virtual people, including Luo Tianyi, Yan He, Le Zheng Aya, Le Zheng Dragon Tooth, Zheng Yu Mo ke and Mo Qingxian. By introducing Yamaha's VOCALOID vocal singing synthesis technology, Tenya Henian allows users to select songs and vsinger virtual singers' voices to compose and adapt lyrics. On July 12, 2012, Tianya Henian launched the first Chinese VOCALOID sound bank software with Chinese characteristics and the virtual person Luo Tianyi; in 2017, the first Vsinger live concert was held by all vsinger members; on February 24, 2019, Luo Tianyi and pianist Lang Lang held a holographic concert; on April 17, 2020, Luo Tianyi walked into Li Jiaqi's live broadcast room; and from July 9 to July 11, 2021, Luo Tianyi and Vsinger Other members participated in bilibili World (Shanghai).
Zhongke Shenzhi provides solutions for AI digital people, VR large-space applications, mixed reality shooting and real-time animation training rooms, focusing on full-stack real-time animation and virtual live broadcast technology. Zhongke Shenzhi provides multi-person large-scale spatial positioning technology, and its self-developed products include virtual live broadcast system, optical motion capture system and virtual camera system. Application scenarios for these technologies include virtual live broadcasting, virtual idols, mixed reality shooting, large-space VR experiences, animation training rooms, and virtual production. The company provides services for head IP such as Yizen Little Monk and Silent Sauce and leading companies such as CCTV, China UnionPay and Panasonic.
Mofa Technology focuses on creating an AI-driven engine for the virtual world. The company launched a full-stack end-to-end AI performance animation solution, and through its self-developed AI performance animation technology, hyper-realistic character intelligent modeling and binding technology, intelligent animation and speech synthesis technology and intelligent interaction, it has carried out a wide layout in the field of virtual world content production, virtual IP creation and virtual intelligent helpers, and has successfully created virtual internet celebrity Ling Ling, virtual person Ada, etc.
Chuangyi Technology focuses on digital content culture. The company employs hundreds of people and forms three departments, including the pre-planning department, the post-middle office (editing, three-dimensional, synthesis department) and the executive department, of which the number of content creation teams in the middle office accounts for two-thirds of the company, and the virtual IP of the first meta-universe of the whole network - Liu Yexi was created by the company. (Source: Future Think Tank)
In addition to startups, giants are also actively deploying in terms of virtual people, such as Ali Damo Academy and NetEase.
Alibaba Damo Academy has a machine intelligence laboratory (vision laboratory, language technology laboratory), data computing laboratory (intelligent computing laboratory) and XR laboratory, etc., and continues to pay attention to VR, AR, XR and other hardware platform technologies, moving towards the meta-universe. Among them, XR Lab's main research directions are three-dimensional modeling of objects and people, high-realism rendering, natural human-computer interaction, large-scale scene mapping and positioning, and robot grasping and manipulation. At the application level, the industrial-grade naked-eye 3D technology being developed by Ali Damo Academy is applied to the virtual person industry chain, which can realize the real-time synchronization between the online and offline live broadcast of the virtual anchor, so that the feedback of the virtual anchor is more timely and authentic, so as to improve the interaction effect. Ali Damo Academy also develops AI human intelligence technology, which can realize the interaction of thousands of people, when applied to the virtual person industry chain, can achieve the same virtual person to different people one-on-one artificial intelligence interaction.
NetEase's NetEase Qizhi and NetEase Fuxi Lab are both working towards virtual people, and NetEase has increased the layout of virtual people by investing in other companies. NetEase Smart Enterprise provides technologies covering real-time transmission of audio and video, speech recognition/synthesis, and face comparison, and is applied to a variety of scene experiences such as games, online meetings, scenario-based social, virtual concerts, and children's education. NetEase Fuxi Lab launched the virtual person SDK "Youling" and the immersive activity system "Yaotai". According to Game Grapes, of the 22 investments that NetEase has made so far in 2020, 5 of them are investments in virtual person-related industries, including Xiaoice, IMVU, Second World Culture and Shiyue Xingcheng, and the main projects are virtual people "Xiaoice", VR social game "IMVU", virtual human animation works and virtual human technology providers.
In terms of overseas giants, NVIDIA launched 3 virtual people at the GTC 2021 conference, namely "Mini Toy Version Huang Renxun" Toy-Me, "Eggshell Man" image virtual person and virtual person applied to conference software. Toy-Me can answer questions about climate change, astronomy, and biological proteins.
Epic Games makes metahuman in a simpler, easier way for Unreal Engine. MetaHuman Creator (MHC) is an application program for creating and designing virtual people, different from the general face pinching tool, it can skip the data collection steps required by the general program, directly use the hairstyle and face in the library to make a virtual person, and the preset data of the material library is from the real and reasonable face, so MHC can simplify the process of creating virtual people, and ensure the quality. MHC uses cloud hosting services, so the demand for computer power and storage is not high at the level of high resolution and rendering, which is conducive to alleviating the hardware requirements of creators.
Third, the business model of the virtual person?
From the application level, virtual people can be applied to film and television, media, games, finance, cultural tourism, education, medical and retail and other fields, and its specific scenes include virtual Internet celebrities, virtual concerts, virtual spokespersons for brand promotion, virtual idols, film and television shooting, star avatars virtual idols, live streaming, virtual conferences, virtual exhibitions, the company's main business assistance, academic research and virtual tour guides.
There are several ways to monetize a virtual person:
Live streaming tipping or bringing goods: Virtual anchors get live streaming fees and virtual gift tips through live broadcasting, and the commercial value is gradually highlighted, and the advantage of virtual anchors is that they can continue to broadcast live for 24h.
Most virtual anchors are still difficult to make a profit, but the live broadcast reward income of the head virtual anchor can be compared with the head real anchor. At the 12th anniversary of Station B, CEO Chen Rui mentioned that in the past year, more than 32,000 virtual anchors have started broadcasting on Station B, an increase of 40% year-on-year, and virtual anchors have become the fastest growing category in the field of live broadcasting of Station B. According to Morning Finance, as of August 18, 2021, of the 3472 virtual anchors that Station B has relative attention to, 1827 people have a revenue of 0 yuan in the month, and most of the virtual anchors are still difficult to make a profit. However, the live broadcast reward income of the head virtual anchor can reach the level of the head real anchor live broadcast. According to the data of Baiguan Technology, the number of virtual anchors of Station B has increased significantly since March 2020, and the tip revenue has increased by 183% year-on-year. In the top 50 of the B station game anchor strength ranking (based on the comprehensive score of active audience, attention subscription and gift value) for nearly seven days on December 23, 2021, 11 virtual anchors were shortlisted, Azi was very cute since childhood and What Jiaran ate today entered the TOP10, with gifts of 964,700 and 109,000 yuan respectively.
The number of fans of the head virtual anchor can reach the head real anchor. Two virtual people, Yousa and Hanser, were selected as the top 100 UP masters of Station B in 2020, ranking 51st and 57th respectively. Station B in August 2021 the number of virtual anchor fans in the top ten 9 virtual anchor fans more than one million, from the number of fans, up to the number of top 100 UP main fans. In May 2020, virtual idol Luo Tianyi conducted a cross-border live broadcast with goods, with the highest number of viewers in one hour reaching 2.7 million people, and nearly 2 million people tipping interaction. According to Titanium Media, Luo Tianyi's pit fee on Taobao is about 900,000, which is more than luo Yonghao, the most expensive live anchor among the head anchors in the same period (the pit fee in Douyin is about 600,000). The single "Shiny Dancer" by the virtual girl group A-SOUL captain Bella was launched on the B station less than 24 hours, receiving 25.8w plays, 1.5w comments, and climbed to the fifth place on the B station music hit charts.
Commercial performances: Virtual idols can earn income through virtual concerts and music singles. Virtual concerts are divided into online and offline, offline to collect advertiser sponsorship and sell tickets for monetization, online can be collected through online live broadcast ticket fees and live broadcast tip fees. For example, The Galaxy Alice and hololive head virtual idol Shinoko, launched by Japan's Balus, are virtual concerts.
Brand endorsement: Brand virtual endorsement can broaden the company's market by promoting the brand. Celebrity avatars receive IP licensing fees and product endorsement fees. Virtual influencers KOLs can charge a corresponding branding endorsement fee by partnering with skincare, beauty and fashion companies, such as AYAYI with Guerlain and LV.
Starring in film and television variety shows: Virtual people can add color to programs and film and television by participating in the recording of variety shows and starring in film and television works. At present, it is used in variety shows, such as: the digital singer Ling Qiu in the first virtual variety show "2060" on The Star Satellite TV in China, the red armor warrior in "Assassination of a Novelist", Xiao Yang, the virtual host of Mango Super Media, and Xiao Yang, the AI virtual host of Baidu in the "Struggle for Youth - 2021 May Fourth Youth Day Special Program" of China Central Radio and Television Corporation.
Fourth, virtual people in the film and television content industry?
The traditional film and television content production industry chain relies too much on artists/stars, one is that the cost is higher; the second is that the personal conduct is not easy to control and will overturn; the third is that once it becomes famous, it is easy to break away from the company that once cultivated itself and set up a studio.
In terms of the cost of dramas, according to the Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of the Creation and Production of TV Drama Network Dramas issued by the State Administration of Radio and Television on February 20, 2020, the total remuneration of all actors in each TV drama network drama shall not exceed 40% of the total cost of production, of which the remuneration of major actors shall not exceed 70% of the total remuneration. According to the recommendations of the China Television Drama Production Industry Association, the production cost of TV dramas/network dramas in China should be controlled within 4 million yuan per episode. Based on this calculation, the cost of actors in the head episode is as high as 1.6 million / episode, and the total cost of actors in 40 episodes reaches 64 million, which is not a small burden for content producers and procurement platform parties.
Celebrity rollovers can cause huge losses to the company. Celebrity rollover has a negative impact on the image of the endorsement brand, and film and television dramas and variety shows that are filmed well will not be released or need to be remade by changing actors. For example, Tangde Film and Television, which spent 500 million yuan on the investment, was completely banned under the influence of Gao Yunxiang and Fan Bingbing; "Qingyi Xing", which had a total investment of up to 300 million yuan, was affected by Wu Yifan and the release was stalled; "Jade Lover", "Top Secret" and "The Ghost of the New Qiannu" were banned under the influence of Zheng Shuang.
When celebrities become famous, they often break away from the company that cultivated themselves and set up a studio. For example, Yang Mi, Zhao Liying, Lu Han and Zhang Yixing have all set up their own portals after becoming famous.
Virtual people do not have the above problems, compared with the cultivation of real idols, virtual idols have the following advantages: high plasticity. There is no need to "vary from person to person" according to personal conditions, and to shape the person and image according to the big data of target positioning and user preferences. Maneuverable and deterministic. Virtual idols exist based on platforms and teams, and there is no risk of personal morality and the risk of leaving the platform after successful cultivation. No slot risk. Theoretically, it is possible to copy indefinitely, with multiple commercial activities at the same time.
The operation of Disney Animation's IP has been prosperous for a long time and has been precipitated into a platform-level asset. We believe that the future development of virtual people may refer to Disney with IP operations as the core in the world. According to Statista, five of the world's top ten most profitable IPs are expected to come from Disney in 2021, including Winnie the Pooh, $80.3 billion, Mickey Mouse with an estimated revenue of $80.3 billion, Disney Princess and $68.7 billion in Star Wars, and $35.3 billion in Marvel Universe. The IP is given a story and connotation, and it is continuously developed and derived through movies, games, theme parks, cultural and creative products, etc., so that the IP has longer vitality, and the long-term precipitation is a platform asset and contributes to the income.
Fifth, the obstacles of virtual people?
1) Operation. Virtual people basically do not have technical obstacles, and the obstacles are in the operation process of how to "cultivate", establish "popularity", and "monetize". Take the operation of the virtual person Liu Yexi as an example. Liu Yexi, with the "Meta universe" label, posted her first video on Douyin on October 31, 2021, and became a hot search with more than 3 million likes, and the number of fans exceeded 2.3 million three days later. Liu Yexi is the first meta-universe IP of the whole network, and its operation is reflected in the combination of virtual people and related hot topics.
2) Break the dimension. Virtual idols were previously more popular in the second dimension, and they need to expand to the three-dimensional field in the future. We see that Liu Yexi has broken the concept of virtual people, which is no different from the real person image, and the acceptance of ordinary users is high. (Source: Future Think Tank)
In order for people to truly accept the integration of virtual people into real life, the image of virtual people must be visually accepted by people. Therefore, by improving the motion face capture technology, graphic rendering technology, modeling, speech synthesis technology, AI technology and CG technology, the virtual person's appearance should be more refined, and the expressions, tone of voice and movements should be more realistic.
The setting of the virtual person is one of the main reasons why people are easy to accept them, so the setting and operation of the virtual person IP should be distinctive and loved by people. For example, the origin, personality, growth environment, educational background, work background, etc. of the virtual person. Take the B station virtual anchor Xiao Tao as an example, Xiao Tao is a 15-year-old purple-haired double ponytail pink pupil girl, wearing a black and white slave suit, with a variety of personalities, will switch personalities with the speed of the fan on the head. For example: the overhead fan does not rotate at all, the performance is naturally dull; if the overhead fan rotates at low speed, it shows cleverness; if the overhead fan rotates at high speed, it shows the black personality of the abdomen.
In addition to the production and operation of virtual people, the widespread application of virtual people will make people more receptive to virtual people. Now that the application of virtual people is in the initial stage, people have just begun to have a preliminary understanding of virtual people. With the wider application of virtual people in live broadcasting, Internet celebrity KOL, film and television works, brand spokespersons, online conferences and company business, virtual people will be more likely to reach people's lives, and as people will have a deeper understanding of virtual people, they will gradually accept the concept of virtual people in life. For example: with the breath of life - Xiao Yang.
3) FROM THE ROI PERSPECTIVE, THE CULTIVATION OF LIVE IDOLS IS TEMPORARILY MORE ADVANTAGEOUS. The virtual idol industry is not yet mature, and the cost of creating virtual idols of different types, technical routes or "quality" varies greatly. Taking the cost of Liu Yexi, who has recently "gone out of the circle" on the short video platform as an example, from the production process announced by Chuangyi Video, the shooting and post-production are the main cost consumption links, and Liang Zikang, co-founder and CEO of Chuangyi Video, said that although the production cost is "not millions of online transmission", it is indeed very high.
According to Titanium Media, the production cost of a single of virtual idols is mostly about 2 million yuan, and a concert covering 10 performance tracks, including arrangement, high-tech modeling, image design, motion capture, stage program formulation, CG production, etc., costing 20 million yuan. Taking Luo Tianyi as an example, a concert was held at the Mercedes-Benz Center in June 2017, and according to Cao Pu, chairman of Tianya Henian, "the company spent more than 20 million yuan to complete that performance." From the perspective of monetization, the income of Luo Tianyi concerts is mainly based on sponsorship, tickets and peripheral derivatives. The sponsorship revenue of the 2017 concert is expected to cover the cost of the performance, with ticket sales of about 7,000 tickets, and the average price of 500 yuan per ticket is about 3.5 million yuan. Further, holding concerts has a strong brand effect, strengthening the creation of Luo Tianyi's IP, allowing virtual idols to enter the three-dimensional debut, and the significance of its marketing is greater than profit.
Due to the mature operating model and monetization industry chain, the cost of cultivating real idols is relatively low. Take the Korean idol training company SM, for example, SM is one of the best idol training companies in the world, according to 36Kr, which invested about 1 million yuan per person in the entire training process. The first is the selection stage, through the weekend draft, SM youth selection conference and other talent activities, scouting excavation, self-recommendation and other channels to explore 10-22-year-old teenagers, this stage of the pass rate of nearly 1:800.
After entering the training stage, the trainees basically need 3-10 years of training, in the form of weekly examinations, monthly examinations, etc. at the end of the elimination, this stage has a high elimination rate of up to 50%. At this stage, the profit model has become very mature, directly profitable from the C-end of singles, albums, concerts, member value-added, peripheral derivatives, B-end profitable TV variety shows, performance activities, business cooperation, etc.
Back in China, the company's annual expenditure on trainees is expected to be more than 1 million, and large-scale brokerage companies will train more than a dozen trainees at the same time, with an average training time of two and a half years and a total cost of more than 30 million yuan. According to lehua entertainment, the head brokerage company cultivated by internal entertainment idols, it takes at least 40-50 million to make a group.
Although the ROI of virtual idols is lower than that of real idols in the short term, with the advancement of technology and the emergence of scale effects, as well as the rigid demand for virtual people in the meta-universe era, the virtual idol industry is promising, and the boundaries between the two will be more blurred. For example, at the end of 2020, Lehua Entertainment released the virtual idol group "A-SOUL", which is composed of five girls with different appearances and personalities, and within a few months of debut, the number of fans on the whole network exceeded three million. According to the data of Station B, the average number of music works released by A-SOUL in Station B can reach more than 500,000. With the virtual idol business, Lehua Entertainment ushered in the investment of ByteDance.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank]. Future Think Tank - Official website