In addition to the established fact that subsidies have declined, limited by the price increase of raw materials and the shortage of chips, new energy vehicle companies are facing the pressure of rising costs on the one hand, and on the other hand, the output is inevitably declining due to the shortage of chips. In this case, car companies have increased prices to pass on costs. However, can the new energy vehicles that have become more expensive still sell well?
Produced by Radar Finance, | Li Yihui edited | the deep sea
At the beginning of the new year, the news of price increases came from various new energy vehicle companies.
The direct reason behind this is that the new energy country will make up for the decline in 2022. On the last day of the year, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022", which clarified that from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% from 2021.
Tesla said that due to the decline of China's new energy subsidies, the rear-wheel drive version of the Model 3 and Model Y models was raised by 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively.
In addition to the established fact that subsidies have declined, limited by the price increase of raw materials and the shortage of chips, new energy vehicle companies are facing the pressure of rising costs on the one hand, and on the other hand, the output is inevitably declining due to the shortage of chips.
In this case, car companies have increased prices to pass on costs. However, can the new energy vehicles that have become more expensive still sell well?
Subsidy decline has become the fuse for price increases
On the last day of 2021, the expected subsidy policy for new energy vehicles was officially implemented.
On December 31, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022, pointing out that in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021.
Specifically, in 2021, pure trams with a range of 300 (inclusive) to 400km can enjoy a subsidy of 13,000 yuan; after a 30% decline in 2022, a subsidy of 9,100 yuan; in 2021, pure trams with a range greater than 400km and a price of less than 300,000 yuan can enjoy a subsidy of 18,000 yuan; in 2022, a subsidy of 12,600 yuan will be given after a 30% decline.
Hybrid models with pure electric endurance NEDC working conditions greater than 50km, or WLTC working conditions greater than or equal to 43km, and the price is less than 300,000 yuan, enjoy a subsidy of 6800 yuan in 2021; subsidies of 4760 yuan after 30% decline in 2022.
The new subsidy standard will be implemented from January 1, 2022. In addition, the notice clarifies that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
It is understood that new energy vehicles, as a strategic emerging industry determined by the state, have begun to enjoy central financial subsidies since 2009. According to the Beijing News, preliminary statistics show that by the end of 2021, the Ministry of Finance has announced the liquidation and review of 19 batches of subsidy funds for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, with a cumulative amount of more than 140 billion yuan.
What is the impact of subsidies on new energy vehicle companies?
Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry, told Radar Finance that after the subsidy declines, the cost of new energy vehicle companies increases, and individual car companies pass on costs through price increases. But at present, in addition to Tesla's shortage of supply, other domestic car companies, because basically homogenization is more serious, so car companies do not have the strength to increase prices.
See wisdom research believes that due to the technical level of the power battery itself in recent years has been greatly improved, while the sales of new energy vehicles have also been greatly improved, although the subsidy range has dropped by 30%, but the number of models and electric vehicles that can meet the subsidy standards will be more, and car companies can appropriately make up for the loss of subsidies through the increase in sales.
At the same time, the subsidy policy is only for pure electric passenger cars priced below 300,000 yuan, and the higher-end products above the price are not affected by the decline of policy subsidies.
But for consumers, it is an indisputable fact that the price of buying electric vehicles in 2022 is higher. Judging from the reactions of various car companies, there has been a price increase.
On the day of the release of the policy, Tesla announced on its official website that the domestic Model 3 rear-wheel drive version rose from 255,700 yuan to 265,700 yuan, an increase in price of 10,000 yuan; the starting price of the domestic Model Y rear-wheel drive version was raised from 280,800 yuan to 301,800 yuan, an increase of about 21,100 yuan.
According to the 2022 subsidy policy, the price of the Model Y rear-wheel drive version after the price increase exceeds 300,000 yuan, and it no longer enjoys subsidies for new energy vehicles. At present, tesla in the sale of models, only the Model 3 rear-wheel drive version can enjoy new energy vehicle subsidies.
Different from car companies that directly increase prices, the new forces have proposed a limited-time price insurance strategy. NIO announced that users who paid the deposit before December 31, 2021 (inclusive) and successfully picked up the car before March 31, 2022, can enjoy subsidies in accordance with the 2021 national subsidy standards, and the difference will be borne by NIO.
Xiaopeng Automobile said that users who paid the deposit from January 1 to 10, 2022 can enjoy the same subsidy policy as in 2021, and the subsidy difference will be borne by Xiaopeng Automobile.
Extreme Krypton Automobile, which has had many rights protection incidents, because of the decline in subsidies and the official "New Year discount", has begun to "argue" with the owners of the determined car.
A statement from the owner of Extreme Kr read, "We are the prospective owners for 2021." After the introduction of the new policy released by Extreme Krypton Automobile on January 1, we found that the price set on January 1, 2022 was cheaper than the price in 2021 under the condition of equal selection. ”
At present, the joint appeal of car owners is that owners who want to refund the deposit should be refunded within the time limit; for car owners who are willing to buy a car, WE version and YOU version owners should keep the rights and interests of 2021 unchanged while also enjoying the rights and interests of the New Year in 2022.
"From the current information, Tesla has had many price increase records before, GAC and Volkswagen's previous new car pricing is relatively low, and now the price increase of more than 4,000-5,000 yuan is not high, and it is still competitive in the market after the price increase." In Zhang Xiang's view, the price increase of car companies is not a common phenomenon, but an individual phenomenon.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the subsidy fell by 30%, whether it is the amount of subsidized bicycles or the total amount, it is in a relatively low state, and car companies are facing the challenges of the post-subsidy era, and they will inevitably adjust their prices.
Chip shortage, raw material prices have become a driving force
In fact, the decline in subsidies is only one of the reasons for the increase in the price of electric vehicles, and the more direct reason may be that the production cost of new energy vehicles is increasing.
Taking Tesla, which has more frequent price changes, as an example, since 2021, the brand has raised prices many times, and the cumulative price increase has exceeded 20%.
In the past year, the upstream raw materials of new energy have been in a state of "crazy rise". Business agency data show that in 2021, the prices of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and magnesium rose by 432%, 317% and 214% respectively, which was the largest increase in 2021.
On January 4, data released by Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation showed that the highest quotation of lithium carbonate on the day exceeded 300,000 yuan / ton, up 10,000 yuan / ton from the previous day's quotation. The prices of other lithium battery industry chain products also continued to rise in an all-round way, electrolytic cobalt rose by 6,000 yuan / ton, and lithium iron phosphate rose by 4,000 yuan / ton.
According to Longzhong Information Monitoring, in January 2022, the demand for downstream replenishment before the Spring Festival is still strong, but there are still more maintenance and production reduction plans at the production end of lithium carbonate, and it is expected that the mismatch between supply and demand will continue to support lithium carbonate prices to hit a new high.
The price increase effect is transmitted layer by layer through lithium material factories, power battery factories and then to complete car companies. As for the reasons for the price increase, as of the end of 2020, the global proven lithium resources are about 86 million tons, with limited reserves; at the same time, the surge in demand for new energy vehicles has also surprised battery manufacturers.
At present, the major battery suppliers, in addition to the price of the Ningde era has not changed, almost all have increased the price of power batteries or plan to increase the price. Guotai Junan Securities estimates that the price of lithium battery raw materials per ton increases by 100,000 yuan, and the cost of parts for car companies will increase by about 4,000 yuan / vehicle.
In addition, the shortage of chips has led to limited production of car companies, which also indirectly affects the price of terminal vehicles.
In 2020, due to the repeated epidemics and supply chain disorders and other factors, the lack of cores spread from the PC industry to mobile phones, automobiles and other industries. According to the latest data from Auto Forecast Solutions (AFS), as of December 5, 2021, the cumulative production reduction in the Chinese auto market has reached 1.982 million units due to chip shortages, and the cumulative production of the global auto market has been reduced by 10.122 million units.
Because of the shortage of chips, many car companies around the world have more or less reduced production, or even stopped production measures. In early 2020, Subaru was the first to announce that the Japanese factory was completely shut down due to the interruption of semiconductor chip supply; Ford was forced to close a factory in Germany because of chip shortages.
Domestic car-making new forces, Ideal Car first launched the "first delivery and then replenishment" policy, Xiaopeng Automobile is also because of the shortage of millimeter-wave radar, for the first batch of Xiaopeng P5 owners to place orders to promote "futures", that is, "first delivery and then supplement radar" program.
Volkswagen's head of U.S. operations predicted in December that the global chip shortage would continue into the third quarter of 2022. China Automobile Center also expects that by the third quarter of 2022, the supply of chips will be greatly alleviated.
At present, car companies have realized the transfer of such costs through adjustment. Industry insiders said that under the lack of cores last year, the automobile production capacity and inventory of many companies have decreased, but due to the increase in automobile pricing, and many companies give priority to the production of high-margin cars, the profits of most car companies are still very impressive.
Zhang Xiang also pointed out that now that chip manufacturers have expanded production capacity, the pressure of lack of core will be alleviated, but the resulting supply is in short supply, and this supply and demand contradiction will be adjusted through price increases.
Recently, there is more news that the premium of new energy vehicle insurance has soared. In this regard, Cui Dongshu pointed out that the phenomenon that the premium of new energy vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles of the same level is mainly due to the accumulation of insurance historical data of new energy vehicles. He encouraged car companies to set up their own insurance types, and the state should also support reasonable subsidies for insurance costs, and new energy vehicles cannot be afforded and unaffordable.
Looking forward to 2022, among the many uncertainties facing the new energy automobile industry, it is not all "bad" news. Realizing revenue through the sale of carbon emission credits is becoming the main means for new energy vehicle companies to fill the deficit.
According to ideal automobile's third quarterly report, the company's revenue in the third quarter was 200 million yuan from the sale of 70,000 new energy credits, accounting for 51% of "other sales and service revenue". The filling of 200 million yuan also made the ideal loss narrow rapidly, becoming the least loss in "Wei Xiaoli".
In 2020, Tesla earned $1.58 billion through the sale of carbon credits, compared to Tesla's net profit for the year of $721 million. This means that Tesla's profitability is mainly sold by points.
After becoming expensive, can it still sell well?
Statistics show that the new energy vehicle market in 2021 can be described by the word "piping hot".
Data disclosed by the leader Tesla shows that the delivery volume for the whole year of 2021 reached 936,200 vehicles, an increase of 87.2% compared with 2020, exceeding market expectations. ACCORDING TOD's announcement data, the sales of new energy passenger cars in 2021 reached 593,700 units, an increase of 231.6% year-on-year.
Among the new car-making forces, Xiaopeng Automobile's total annual delivery reached 98,200 units, an increase of more than 263% year-on-year; NIO's annual delivery reached 91,400 units, ranking second among the new forces; the total sales of ideal cars reached 90,500 units, an increase of 177.4% year-on-year; Nezha, Weima and Zero Run delivered 69,700, 44,200 and 43,100 units respectively.
Even the Huawei hybrid model M5, which was just released on December 23 last year, has revealed that there are currently more than 7,000 units of orders in the country.
But 2021 has come to an end, and in 2022, under the expectation of increasingly strong price increases, can the more expensive new energy vehicles still sell well?
"After the price increase, the sales of new energy vehicles may be affected." Zhang Xiang believes that because the so-called "hardcore" consumers of new energy are still the kind of new energy vehicles living in first- and second-tier cities, they limit the number of licenses, that is, they want to buy new energy vehicles that cannot be listed. Therefore, after the price increase, the sales volume of new energy vehicles still has a great impact.
Cui Dongshu analyzed that in the short term, car companies are facing the pressure of subsidy decline, but with the continuous advancement of technology, new energy vehicle companies want to remain competitive, and in the long run, prices will decline.