[Uncle Rui opening focus]
Today's national pig market continues to maintain a volatile downward trend;
Although after experiencing the previous wave of sharp rises, pig farmers are full of confidence in the pig market, but we must also fully understand the current pig production capacity situation, what part of the pig cycle we are in.
In general, it is still in the middle of a downward cycle, although the pig price has risen sharply, but in the end it is a weak state that cannot be changed, which can be clearly seen from some data.
1. From the data of pig inventory;
According to relevant data, as of the end of the third quarter, the number of pigs in the country was 437.64 million heads, although it was slightly lower than the previous quarter, but it was still at a high level, an increase of 18.2% over the same period last year;
2. From the data of the number of columns;
Throughout the first three quarters, the number of pigs out of the pen was 491.93 million heads, an increase of 35.9% over the same period last year, it can be seen that in the case of the increase in the pig inventory, the number of pigs out of the pen has also increased significantly.
3. From the perspective of the number of sows that can breed;
By the end of the third quarter, the number of fertile sows was 44.59 million, down 2.3% from the previous quarter, but still up 16.7% over the same period last year, and has fully returned to normal levels.
So overall, there are really more pigs now!
But with the big rise, in recent days, once again opened the state of accelerated decline, pig farmers are a bit blindfolded, the peak season is not strong, pig prices are really going to fall sharply? Let's talk about this today!
[Latest Average Price in Today's Hog Market]
According to the latest data, the latest average price of the national pig market today is 15.54 yuan / kg, down 0.14 yuan / kg compared with yesterday;
[Today's Pig Market Update]
From the perspective of the terminal market, with the arrival of the dismal sales situation of the winter solstice festival, the market's confidence in the pig market is somewhat insufficient, the situation of poor purchase and sales has intensified again, and it is obvious that the enthusiasm of traders to receive goods has been reduced a lot, the transaction volume of white strips has continued to decline, and the price of white strips in the wholesale market has also been slightly reduced.
From the perspective of slaughtering enterprises, after the success of price reduction, slaughtering enterprises are also bolder, and they are unscrupulously price-cutting, after all, the situation at the consumer end is not optimistic, the price can no longer be suppressed, and the degree of loss will be heavier, so slaughtering enterprises in some areas even have a second price reduction, and the price pressure is becoming more and more fierce.
[Pig prices have accelerated their decline, pig farmers have been blindfolded, do they really want to turn their faces and fall sharply?] ］
Let's go back to the opening topic, as the pig price has opened an accelerated plunge, the pig farmer is indeed a bit of a blindfold, is this pig price really going to fall sharply?
From my personal point of view, the current rapid decline in pig prices, slaughtering enterprises unscrupulously undercut prices, many pigs weigh too much, there is indeed a possibility of concentrated selling and causing a sharp fall in the face.
Because now after a period of pressure barning, the pig weight has obviously increased a lot, but the consumer side of the pickled bacon situation has come to an end, there is no new round of pickling, which makes the market for the consumption of large fat pigs less hot, while the resident consumption is also no improvement, too much weight to give the slaughtering enterprises the opportunity to kill fat.
And after this period of continuous decline, pig farmers' confidence in the market has become insufficient, and there is a centralized sell-off.
But there is also good news, according to the latest information, a round of cold air attack, temperature reduction, there is also a situation of higher consumption, but it can only slow down the pace of pig prices, not so fierce.
