Introduction: Although the industrial layout of "multi-legged" walking has not been abandoned, in the face of the 15 new energy models that are late, time has not stood on toyota's side.
(Text/Pan Yuchen Editor/Lou Bing) As 2021 draws to a close, Toyota Motor, which has just regained the throne of the world's first car company from Volkswagen, has dropped a bombshell on the industry.
On December 14, Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda announced through the press conference that the company expects to invest 35 billion US dollars (about 223 billion yuan) in electric vehicle research and development by 2030, and Toyota will launch 30 pure electric models around the world, providing a comprehensive product lineup in various fields including passenger cars and commercial vehicles. By 2030, the global annual sales of electric models are planned to reach 3.5 million units.
Toyota's plan for its high-end brand Lexus is more bold, and it expects that by 2030, all lexus models will provide pure electric versions, and achieve fully pure electric model sales in major markets such as China, North America, and Europe, with global sales of 1 million vehicles. By 2035, Lexus will fully realize the sale of all-electric models worldwide.
Toyota also announced that it will increase its investment in battery technology, from 1.5 trillion yen announced in September this year to 2 trillion yen (about 112.2 billion yuan).
At the same time, at the press conference, Toyota released 15 pure electric vehicles at one time, covering multiple market segments such as cars, SUVs, off-road and sports cars. Among them, the bZ series is in the core position, Toyota Akio said that toyota bZ series models are based on the pure electric exclusive platform jointly built by Toyota and Subaru, and the first product is the SUV model bZ4X previously released during the Guangzhou Auto Show.
However, most of the models on the stage are still only in the concept stage. In addition, the new car also includes a large number of pure electric vehicles based on the transformation of existing fuel models, making some industry insiders doubt Toyota's determination to "turn around".
Akio Toyoda: Anti-pure electricity is not anti-electric
For the industry, Toyota's conference is somewhat sudden, even a little abrupt. In some people's minds, Toyota has not been cold to electrification.
Just this time last year, Akio Toyoda publicly claimed that electric vehicles were "over-hyped" by some politicians. In September this year, Akio Toyoda opened fire again on full electrification, warning that Japan could not learn from Europe and the United States to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, otherwise it would force Toyota and its affiliated factories to stop, resulting in the loss of 5 million Japanese workers.
He also shouted that the "enemy" of carbon neutrality is carbon dioxide, not the internal combustion engine.
However, in just the past two months, Toyota has suddenly released pure electric models, and even wants to turn the most profitable Lexus into a pure electric brand, which has surprised the outside world.
But in fact, Akio Toyoda is not an opponent of electric technology, but like all companies and businessmen, the main purpose is to pursue profit.
Toyota's layout in the field of electrification is not "early in the morning", but it is definitely not too late. As early as 1992, Toyota Motor established the Electric Vehicle Research and Development Department. Four years later, Toyota introduced an all-electric version based on the best-selling RAV4, earlier than the prius, the first production-produced hybrid oil-electric (HEV) model. The development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCHV) technology is also almost at the same time as that of pure electric vehicles.
In addition, Toyota is also an early player in the development and production of batteries. In the same year that the RAV4 was introduced, Toyota established Prime Earth EV Energy to perfect the nickel-metal hydride battery technology of the time. In the 21st century, Toyota has begun to invest in the research and development of lithium battery and solid-state battery technology.
However, when Toyota entered the field of electric vehicles, the upstream and downstream industrial chains were not mature enough, and the industrial supporting facilities, including energy replenishment, were not perfect. Early batteries were mainly lead-acid and nickel-metal hydride, with low energy density, long charging time and low cruising range. In order to meet the demand for endurance, the capacity of the on-board battery has to be increased accordingly, and the cost of the vehicle is further increased.
Conversely, the Hybrid Prius, which has no endurance anxiety, has gained popularity in the market and remains one of Toyota's best-selling models in North America today. HeV models such as the Prius gave Toyota a taste of sweetness and also allowed Toyota to see a reliable means of transition. Subsequently, with the moat built by THS hybrid technology, Toyota has launched hybrid versions on mainstream models such as corolla, Camry, RAV4 and so on, which constitutes one of Toyota's core competitiveness in the global market.
It can be seen that Toyota's layout of electric technology has taken a "multi-legged walking" approach from the beginning. But driven by financial factors, its product focus is naturally placed on the fuel and hybrid models with higher sales and profits. For the immature pure electric and hydrogen fuel vehicles, Toyota is more likely to use them as a supplementary strategic reserve due to the temporary inability to achieve profitability.
Although in the past 26 years, Toyota's investment in the battery field has reached nearly 1 trillion yen (about 56 billion yuan), and more than 19 million batteries have been produced in total. But when it comes to pure electric vehicles today, Toyota's presence is not as high as its claimed investment.
Bet on the wrong treasure?
However, the so-called plan has not kept up with the changes, with environmental protection and energy conservation and emission reduction becoming a global trend, especially since the 2010s, with the signing of the Paris Agreement, carbon emission control has once again been placed on the agenda of major industrial countries. Fuel vehicles have undoubtedly become an important factor affecting countries to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Many developed countries in Europe and the United States have announced plans to ban the sale of fuel vehicles during this period, and China, as the world's largest automobile market, has also put forward the goal of striving for carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060.
Japan's planning for the dual-carbon target has further stimulated traditional car companies such as Toyota. In April, Japanese Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi announced that Japan would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 46 percent from 26 percent from 26 percent from 2013. This goal also triggered a violent reaction from Akio Toyoda, who repeatedly stressed that relying on internal combustion engines and hybrid technology can also achieve emission reductions, and even threatened to lose a large number of Japanese workers.
Obviously, for a global automotive group like Toyota, pressure from national policies will directly affect the sales of automobiles and the company's profits.
In the field of non-fuel vehicles, Toyota relies more on the moat built by patents to press the treasure on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In 2014, Toyota launched its first hydrogen-fueled mirai, which is mainly sold to the Japanese and North American markets.
However, due to the high manufacturing cost and reserve cost of hydrogen fuel, even under subsidies, the Mirai, positioned as a medium-sized car, is priced at more than RMB 300,000. Hydrogen fuel cells are more called "laughing stock" by Tesla CEO Musk.
In addition, like the early lithium battery vehicles, the construction of energy replenishment channels directly affects the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In 2017, Toyota, together with 11 companies including Nissan and Honda, announced that it plans to build 160 hydrogen refueling stations in Japan by 2020 and popularize 40,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, as of the end of 2020, the number of hydrogen fuel vehicles in the world is only more than 30,000.
In smaller countries such as Japan and South Korea, the promotion of hydrogen fuel vehicles has been resisted, not to mention larger markets such as the United States and Europe. Today, the cumulative sales of Toyota Mirai have just exceeded 10,000, and the outside world's doubts about Toyota's "wrong bet" have begun to grow.
"We live in an era where there are no standard answers, and Toyota wants to offer consumers as many options as possible before the final right route is clear." Until the press conference, Akio Toyoda insisted that the energy situation in different parts of the world is not the same, and carbon neutrality requires "diversified choices".
However, judging from the scale of this conference, in Toyota's new round of planning, pure electric vehicles will be placed in a more advanced position. With the transformation of car companies in major markets such as China, the United States, and Europe into pure electric vehicles, Toyota still bowed its head to reality.
Industrial chain revolution
For Toyota, the transformation of electrification is not only a change in the market share of the car, but also a revolution in the industrial chain.
According to the financial report data, Toyota Motor's sales in fiscal 2020 reached 27.2145 trillion yen (about 1.6 trillion yuan), operating profit was 2.1977 trillion yen (about 129.9 billion yuan), and net profit was 2.2823 trillion yen (about 134.9 billion yuan), an increase of 10.3% year-on-year, ranking first in the world.
Toyota can reach the throne of the world's first car company, relying not only on car sales, but also on decades of deep-rooted cultivation of the industrial chain. Through investment, holding and other means, Toyota controls a number of core enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, including auto parts giants such as Aisin and Denso, which are important members of the Toyota Group system.
Today, with the technical advantages accumulated in the era of fuel vehicles and the penetration of the industrial chain, developed industrial countries have effectively controlled production efficiency and costs, and established a solid foundation for obtaining a large number of profits. However, with the acceleration of the electrification transformation of the global automobile industry, the industrial chain advantages established by Toyota in the era of fuel vehicles have become the object of revolution.
In the eyes of emerging industrial countries with weak fuel vehicle technology, new energy vehicles are the core strategy to promote the overtaking of the local automobile industry. The continuous improvement of the new energy industry chain is undoubtedly a salary draw from the bottom of the cauldron for the traditional automobile giants who rely on fuel vehicles and related industries to make profits.
The rise of Tesla, which has a strong relationship with Toyota, has further sounded the alarm for traditional car companies. As early as 2010, Toyota invested $50 million in Tesla, holding about 2.4% of the shares. Relying on Toyota's relationship, Tesla received the Fremont factory in the United States as a production base and starting capital, while Toyota is pinning its hopes on jointly developing the second-generation RAV4 EV. However, due to the sluggish sales of electric vehicles, the cooperation ultimately did not achieve practical results. Since 2014, Toyota has been selling tesla shares until it completely exited in 2017.
However, with the smooth landing of the gigafactory in China, Tesla has solved the production capacity problem, and car sales and stock prices have soared. Toyota may not have thought that in the future, it will be this little brother who will pull himself down from the world's first market capitalization throne, and now he will triple over himself.
What makes it feel even more stressed is that in the third quarter of this year, Tesla's gross profit margin was close to 30%, nearly 10 percentage points higher than Toyota's, and the bicycle profit reached three times that of Toyota. With the continuous expansion of the electric vehicle market, the substitution effect on traditional fuel vehicles is also emerging. For traditional giants, the crisis brought about by the industrial chain revolution is no longer a paper talk.
Of course, as a mature automobile group, Toyota has also laid out in the upstream industry of new energy in recent years. In the field of battery supply, Toyota and Panasonic jointly established Prime Planet Energy & Solutions Battery Company in 2020 to achieve further control of the industrial chain, and in the same year, Toyota also launched a pure electric e-TNGA architecture.
While new energy vehicles are gradually entering the mainstream stage, intelligence and networking are also defining cars in the new era. In 2018, Toyota announced that it will transform from an automaker into a mobility company, penetrating into the details of the "New Four Modernizations" by investing in autonomous driving startups Such as Momenta and shared mobility companies such as Uber and Didi.
However, the Japanese domestic market and enterprises with limited market size are unable to fully realize the results brought about by these investments, so in the pure electric market, Japanese car companies will eventually rely on the big basket of the three markets of China, the United States and Europe.
In China, time does not belong to Toyota
Tesla's experience goes a step further and tells Toyota that China is the answer to the problem.
China is the world's largest automotive market and the largest new energy vehicle market. On this basis, the Chinese market has cultivated BYD, Weilai, Xiaopeng and other car companies, and more importantly, it also has battery suppliers such as Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, as well as a set of continuously improved new energy vehicle industry chain, and has formed a large-scale industrial cluster in Shanghai, Guangdong, Anhui Hefei and other regions. And all this is not available in the Japanese automotive industry.
Toyota's awareness of the importance of the Chinese market is also increasing. In recent years, toyota's sales in China have also increased significantly through the continuous introduction of new fuel vehicles. However, in terms of new energy, especially pure electric vehicles, Toyota has always been in the stage of "loud thunder and small raindrops".
According to Toyota's definition, the oil-electric hybrid based on THS technology is also an electrified model. However, in China, only plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicle models are classified as new energy vehicles, enjoying preferential policies such as subsidies, purchase tax reductions, and license plates. Since the implementation of the double points policy, the two joint ventures of FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota have been at the bottom of the list.
In this regard, Toyota has announced that from 2020, it will launch no less than 10 electric vehicles to the Chinese market every year. At the same time, Toyota and BYD signed a strategic agreement, the two sides in 2020 to establish a joint venture of equal shareholding, BYD to provide three electric technology, the production of Toyota brand models.
However, as of now, the joint venture with BYD has not yet been promoted by products, Toyota launched only 2 pure electric models in China, and all based on fuel vehicles remodeled, the mileage is difficult to reach the market average standard, making the outside world doubt Toyota's sincerity; and the only 4 plug-in hybrid models, but also due to high prices, sales are sluggish.
In the future, if Toyota wants to achieve the goal of 3.5 million vehicles per year, the Chinese market will undoubtedly become a pivotal link. Akio Toyoda knows this. As early as before this conference, the toyota bZ series new car built on the pure electric platform has been warmed up in China at the Guangzhou Auto Show.
However, even if Toyota accelerates the domestic production of bZ series models, it will have to wait until after 2022. At that time, the market competition environment facing Toyota Electric Vehicles in China will undoubtedly be more dangerous.
In addition, Toyota has created a strong brand premium ability in the field of fuel vehicles, so that when it comes to car purchase price increases, Toyota has become the first brand associated with Chinese consumers. However, in the era of electrification, Toyota, which has no clear results, is difficult to reproduce the glory of fuel vehicles.
Even Volkswagen, which has been in the Chinese market for the longest time, has stumbled in its electrification transformation process. As early as 2018, Volkswagen launched a pure electric MEB platform, and in 2020, it will introduce a pure electric vehicle production plant in China. However, the cumulative sales of the 5 models of the Volkswagen ID. series in China have just exceeded 10,000, which is still not as good as the new force of head car manufacturing that has only been established for 5 years. Toyota, which landed much later than Volkswagen, has been difficult to achieve more advantages than product power.
At this conference, Akio Toyoda also admitted that the decision on what kind of car to choose is not Toyota, but in the local market and consumers. In view of the fact that new energy vehicles are still in the stage of rapid development, whether pure electric vehicles are the so-called "final correct route" of Akio Toyoda is still inconclusive. However, in China, in the face of independent brands and Tesla, which have achieved first-mover advantages, as well as head joint venture brands such as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, which have expanded their pure electric layout in China in advance, time seems to belong to Toyota, and the rules of the game that dominate the market are the same.
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