Omikeron is hitting Britain, Northern Europe, the United States and every corner of the world at an unprecedented rate.
"Aumechon now accounts for 44% of new infections in London and in the next 48 hours it will be the main strain in the capital." British Health Minister Sajid Javid warned on Dec. 13.
On this day, British Prime Minister Johnson said in a televised address to the country, "There is no doubt that the wave of Aumikron is coming." On the same day, the United Kingdom announced the world's first death of an infected person in Omi kerong. Previously, the UK had raised the COVID-19 alert from level three to level four, second only to the highest alert level.
The british ministry of health issued an early warning that due to the arrival of Omi Kerong, by the end of December this year, the cumulative number of new infections in the United Kingdom may exceed 1 million. On 27 November, the UK just reported its first case of Opichron.
In South Africa, one of the earliest countries to report Omicron, President Ramaphosa tested positive on the 13th. In just one month, the average daily new case in South Africa jumped from 200 to 300 to 20,000. The test positivity rate is over 30% – which means there are still a large number of untested infected people in the community.
It was also on this day that the Chinese mainland detected the Omicron mutant strain for the first time, which aroused people's vigilance and concern. Up to now, the existence of Aumechjong has been discovered in nearly 80 countries and regions around the world. And its effects are just beginning to show. "We fear that many people perceive Theokron's symptoms as mild and greatly underestimate its threat." WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned.
www.thepaper.cn has tracked the trajectory of Ami kerong's development in South Africa in depth over the past two weeks. After interviewing immunologists, virologists, clinicians and epidemiologists from the World Health Organization, South Africa and the United Kingdom, key information about Opichron has been combed through so far.
Although uncertainties remain, preliminary research evidence from scientists suggests that Omilon will pose a serious threat globally. For countries that have not yet experienced a mass epidemic in Omicron, it is time to sound the alarm.
Evidence to date suggests that The Opmikeron spreads faster than other variants. Even if it is shown that Omilon causes more mild diseases, its super spread may overwhelm the health care systems of all countries again. In addition, Aomi Kerong also brings us great concerns about the failure of existing immunity.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the Opichron outbreak has emerged across the country. There is reason to believe that Omiljung is likely to lead to a new wave of pandemic outbreaks around the world and become the dominant strain of COVID-19 in many countries around the world for some time to come.
In the coming weeks, two competing forces– the protection provided by the booster needle – will contend with Amikeron's ability to evade existing immunity. However, vaccines alone are not enough, and the choices of people in different countries will together determine the direction of the epidemic this winter and 2022.
Omikron first revealed his true face
On 9 November 2021, a new variant strain (B.1.1.529) was detected for the first time in South Africa from a sample of COVID-19 cases. Two weeks later, the strain became the absolute dominant variant of COVID-19 cases in South Africa, triggering the outbreak of the fourth wave of the outbreak in South Africa. On November 26, two days after receiving the report from South Africa, the World Health Organization listed it as a highest-level "variant of concern" (VOC) and named it after the Greek letter Ο (Omicron). As of December 15, Omikeron has been seen on all continents except Antarctica.
In its latest technical assessment released on 12 December, WHO noted that the overall threat posed by Omikeron depends mainly on three key issues: (1) the extent to which the variant spreads; (2) How well the immunity generated by vaccines and previous infections prevent infection, transmission, clinical diseases and deaths of new strains; (3) How "toxic" (severe mortality) is Omikejung compared to other variants; all public health policies should be based on the answers to the above questions.
Based on the limited evidence available, Omilon appears to have a more transmission advantage than Delta, and in south Africa and the United Kingdom, the first countries to discover Omilon, Omilon replaced the original dominant Delta variant in a short period of time and triggered a new outbreak.
At the same time, data on the severity of the clinical disease in Aumechjong remain limited. While some early findings in South Africa suggest that it may not be as severe as Delta, and that most of the cases reported in Europe so far are mild or asymptomatic, it is unclear whether this means that Omilon is inherently less "toxic" or that its true peak of patients has yet to come.
What's more, the World Health Organization and several experts warned in interviews with The Paper that as Amiqueron produces a large number of cases – even if the symptoms of most people become milder – the total number of hospitalizations will remain enormous, and may still crush the health care systems of many countries.
To date, data on the extent to which Opichron can evade the immune protection of existing vaccines remains limited, and most studies have not been peer-reviewed by the scientific community. But most preliminary evidence suggests that, even if severe illness is prevented, existing vaccines are significantly less effective at preventing infection and transmission in Ami kerong.
There is also some preliminary evidence that the incidence of re-infection in people who have recovered from COVID-19 has also increased. However, the accuracy of PCR and antigen-based rapid diagnostic tests currently used for routine testing appears to be unaffected. Treatment measures for COVID-19 patients also remain effective.
The mutation point of the Omicron compared to the Delta variant
Amikeron's "Blitzkrieg"
What does It mean that Omikeron's super-communicative power means? Some hints may be discerned from the experiences of South Africa and the United Kingdom, the two countries that first erupted.
The earliest case of Aumi kerong in South Africa was first reported on 8 November 2021 in Gauteng, South Africa. By the end of November, it had spread across Gauteng province, and according to data collected as of 7 December, cases had grown exponentially over a four-week period, doubling for just 3.38 days.
In the week ending 4 December 2021, weekly cases and 204% increased hospitalizations in Gauteng, the "epicenter" of the outbreak in South Africa. As of 9 December, the results of case genetic sequencing show that the Omiljung variant has accounted for 70% of all cases. The test positivity rate is close to 30% – which means that there are a large number of undetected infected people in the community, and the outbreak will continue to expand further in the future.
Fortunately, although there has been a significant increase in the number of confirmed cases and hospitalizations, there are not many severely ill patients. Dr Thierno Balde, who coordinates the World Health Organization's RESPONSE to COVID-19 in Africa, told The Paper that the current situation is still very low compared to the last wave of the outbreak caused by Delta in South Africa. "Currently in South Africa, only 7.5% of intensive care unit (ICU) beds are used."
Outside of South Africa, the UK sample may be more noteworthy.
On 27 November, the uk reported its first case of Opichron. On 10 December, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) predicted that in the next 2 to 4 weeks, Omilon will account for the majority of COVID-19 cases in the country. Current testing and statistics can no longer reflect the true spread of the virus, and according to their model, if the current trend remains the same, the number of new infections in the UK will exceed 1 million by the end of this month.
Ukh Ministry of Health researchers looked at the spread in the homes of 121 patients infected with the Olmiqueron variant and concluded that Omilkeron was about 3 times more likely to be transmitted to a family member than Delta. The close contacts in the Omikejong case are about 2 times more likely to be infected than the Delta close contacts.
British scientists estimate that the Rt value of Omi kerong (that is, the number of people who can be infected per infected person) is about 3.7 (3.3-4.2); the number of new infections can be doubled every 3 days.
This value is much higher than Delta. Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, explains that this high transmissibility is related to the fact that Omicron itself is more infectious, coupled with the ability to evade immunity gained through vaccination or natural infection.
Professor John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a member of the UK government's Scientific Advisory Panel on Emergencies, said in an interview with The Guardian that Omiljung is likely to spread even faster in the UK than in South Africa. If you calculate the current 1,000 new cases of Aumicron in the UK every day, the Christmas holiday in two weeks may have 64,000 new cases a day. "Whatever countermeasures we take now, it is unlikely to be overreacting." He said.
British Prime Minister Johnson personally went to a vaccination site to urge the public to vaccinate
Olmikeron mild? - Is it good news?
Fareed Abdullah, director of the AIDS and Tuberculosis Research Office of the South African Medical Research Council, told The Paper that when he walked into the COVID-19 ward during this wave, the scene in front of him was very different from what he had experienced in previous waves, when the ward was filled with the sound of oxygen machines.
"At the moment, we still can't say whether the disease caused by the Aumechjong variant is less serious, and now that it is still early after the first appearance of the Omiljung, there may be a lag in the rise in the number of severe cases and deaths." But so far, despite a significant increase in new cases in South Africa, the number of COVID-19 deaths in South Africa has not risen. He said.
Some early evidence suggests that the disease caused by Omi kerong may be milder than other forms of the virus – which is also seen by some as perhaps "good news". But some experts warn that it's too early to draw conclusions, that more cases need to be followed and that they will be followed for longer – there is no definitive evidence of a reduction in "toxicity" in Omiljung, and one possible explanation for the general mildness of the disease in South Africa is that vaccinations and past infections are protecting people from serious diseases.
According to early data provided by Abdullah for national hospital surveillance in South Africa, among patients who have been discharged, the fourth wave of patients admitted to the hospital has a lower proportion of patients who have developed severe symptoms compared to similar time periods in the second and third waves. (Severe refers to any patient who develops acute respiratory distress syndrome, receives oxygen, breathes, is treated in advanced care or ICU, or dies.) At the same time, the length of hospitalization has been greatly reduced.
But most patients in South Africa are young. The average age of the South African population is 27 years, which is much less likely to develop serious diseases than older people. In contrast, the average age in the UK is 40 years.
Even if the disease caused by Aumechjong is milder, we will still face a complex situation. Scientists point out that the damage caused by the virus is the product of a combination of its "toxicity" and ability to spread — a small decline in the former combined with a sharp rise in the latter may be more damaging than the opposite. (Compared to the more deadly SARS or MERS viruses, the coronavirus pandemic itself is a prime example of this.) ）
U.S. CDC Director Valensky said: If The Omicron is more easily transmitted, it will eventually lead to more people getting sick, even if only a small number of hospitalizations, it will be a huge number, causing a fatal crisis.
The super-contagious nature of Omilon may mean that most people will gain some degree of immunity while facing a low-risk serious disease, but it will have the greatest impact on vulnerable groups – the elderly, the immunocompromised, the unvaccinated. At a time when 55% of the world's population is not yet vaccinated, this puts many more people at risk.
A laboratory technician in South Africa prepares to sequence a sample of the Omiljung variant
Omicron's biggest concern
In addition to the super transmittal force and pathogenicity, another of the biggest concerns of Aomi Kerong is the escape of the body's existing immunity.
When Omi kerong emerged in South Africa, less than 30 percent of the country's population was vaccinated. Low vaccination rates make it difficult to determine the protection of existing vaccines against Opmikharong. In recent weeks, scientists in different countries have come to the same basic conclusion in the first experiments: the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has significantly reduced levels of neutralizing antibodies to the Omiljung variant compared to the original virus. But people who received booster injections produced higher levels of antibodies that could help fight Omexon.
Early epidemiological studies have reached similar conclusions. In the UK, researchers found that after six months of vaccination, two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were almost unable to defend against the infection of Omiclon. The two doses of Pfizer/BioNTech are only 34% effective in infection prevention. However, preliminary data show that a third dose of the vaccine can provide considerable resistance. The protection of Omikeron can be increased to about 70% to 75%.
A report recently released by the US CDC said that most of the Cases of Omikejong found in the United States so far are fully vaccinated, and one-third of them have received booster injections. A study published by the University of Hong Kong on the 14th showed that most people who received two doses of Pfizer/BioNTech or Coshing vaccine did not produce enough serum antibodies to the Omiljung strain. The public is advised to receive a third dose of the vaccine as soon as possible while waiting for a more matching next-generation vaccine.
A number of experts told the surging news that for China, the top priority is to start the study of the effectiveness of inactivated vaccines on the Aomi Kerong variant as soon as possible. Judging from the available data on the performance of various vaccines in front of Omicron around the world, the situation is not optimistic.
On the 14th, the Global Times reporter learned that the test results of the China Food and Drug Control Institute (China Academy of Inspection) showed that after receiving 2 doses of inactivated vaccine, the 1 dose of adenovirus vector new crown vaccine (inhalation dosage form) was sequentially strengthened, and the neutralizing antibody titer of the pseudovirus against the Omikejong variant strain was only slightly lower than that of the prototype strain, and the neutralizing antibody titer was 10 times higher than that of the three-shot inactivated vaccine. Some insiders believe that as more and more studies prove the safety and efficacy of sequential vaccination of vaccines, this vaccination strategy may accelerate under the influence of the Omikeron variant.
Anne Von Gottberg, vice chair of the World Health Organization's Technical Advisory Group on the Evolution of the Coronavirus and head of respiratory diseases at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in South Africa, also told The Paper that preliminary data and analysis obtained from South Africa show that It seems that Omikron can re-infect people who have been infected with other strains of the new crown virus. This is something that has not been seen in previous waves of outbreaks. This ability to evade natural infection immunity could lead to the recurrence of new outbreaks in countries and regions that were once infected on a large scale.
In the coming weeks, more research on Omikeron will determine how this winter and the world will enter 2022.
If enough people are vaccinated with booster vaccines, while attention is being paid to strengthening public protection measures, and Ami kerong's ability to evade immunization is not strong, there is hope of controlling hospitalizations. Strict social controls, including lockdowns, in the new year are still avoidable.
However, if it is found that It is easy for Omi kerong to escape the existing immunity, and the overall protection provided by the strengthening needle is not satisfactory, then the world will face a very severe winter, and large-scale control measures will be inevitable.
According to a study by scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, in the first optimistic scenario, the UK expects around 300,000 hospitalisations and 47,000 deaths by April 2022.
By contrast, the most pessimistic scenario – Aumikjong's high immune escape rate and low effectiveness of boosting injections – would result in nearly 500,000 hospitalizations and 74,800 deaths, double the peak in January 2021. If the government adopts stricter restrictions, including lockdown measures, at the last minute, it will bring greater panic.
Scientists need more time to fully understand the characteristics of Ami kerong and how to deal with it. What's truly uncertain is how much harm Amiqueron will do to the most vulnerable people — including the elderly, immunocompromised people, people with pre-existing diseases, and people who aren't vaccinated.
Despite the uncertainty, getting vaccinated and boosted injections as soon as possible is the consensus of many scientists at the moment. Even so, however, the enormous impact and pressure of Aumechjong in the short term in the future may be difficult to avoid.
We can only hope for the best results while preparing for the worst.