The wolf is coming
Written by | Yan Xiaoliu
There is some bad news about the mutant strain, Aomi Kerong.
The variant has "entered" Tianjin and Guangzhou, China. On December 13, Tianjin detected for the first time in Chinese mainland a case of Omilon infection, a European entry closed-loop control personnel, currently isolated and treated in a designated hospital, without cough, fever and other symptoms.
The next day, Guangzhou also reported the detection of 1 case of Infection of the Aomi Kerong variant. The infected person entered the country on 27 November and tested negative for several nucleic acids during the period of centralized isolation. On December 11, after the isolation was lifted, he returned to Guangzhou by plane (CA1837) and was transferred to his home for home isolation in a closed loop. The next day, the local community health service center routinely collected nucleic acid samples and reported positive in the early morning of the 13th. At present, it has been diagnosed as an ordinary type of new crown pneumonia.
Guangzhou has now divided 1 sealing and control area, 1 control area and 1 prevention area. Citizens in control areas and key places should not leave the spike unless necessary.
Combined with the World Health Organization (WHO) update, including China, at least 64 countries and regions around the world have found cases of related strain infections.
It had only been 36 days since Omi kerong had been first detected in South Africa. Even as it was first announced, many countries had closed their borders to high-risk countries and territories.
This spreads much faster than the mutant delta. According to the Wall Street Journal, since it first appeared in India in October 2020, to June 19 this year, Delta has been reported in about 70 countries and regions around the world.
Even more alarming, when South African scientists suggested that "this [Omiljung infection] is a milder disease" and WHO preliminary data also support milder symptoms of infection, British Prime Minister Boris said that at least 1 infected person in the country died.
"This is the first report in the world." According to the British "Daily Mail", it is not clear when the deceased was diagnosed, the age, and whether there was an underlying disease.
The first case of Infection with Omikejong was detected in the Uk on 27 November. As of the 13th local time, the British official has reported a total of 4713 cases of related infections. "This is comparable to the spread rate of the original strain in early 2020. At that time, we had no immunity. The BBC reported.
"Some say Omikeron is a milder version of the virus. We should abandon this narrative. It is spreading at an accelerated rate in the population. Boris said.
Photo caption: A woman is vaccinated against COVID-19 in Soweto, South Africa. /AP
The UK raised the alert level and forced some places to wear masks
"For countries and regions with high levels of immunization – whether they have been vaccinated on a large scale or have been severely infected in the past – the speed of transmission in Omikron is very fast." The BBC reported.
The United Kingdom and South Africa are examples.
South Africa experienced the first wave of the epidemic peak in July 2020, with more than 13,000 new confirmed cases in a single day. In late November 2020, the mutant Delta strain ended locally, and the new outbreak, which fell to an average of more than 1,000 cases per day, began to rebound.
By October to mid-November this year, there were less than 300 new cases per day. South African officials say the outbreak brought by Delta is over.
However, after the discovery of Omikejong, South Africa entered a fourth wave of the epidemic. On December 12, data from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases of South Africa showed that the number of new confirmed cases in South Africa in a single day was 37,875, setting a record for the highest single-day increase since the outbreak of the epidemic.
In the first week of December, Gauteng, South Africa's smallest but most densely populated province, reported a 403 percent increase in new cases, with More than 90 percent of Aumicron-related infections, according to South African health officials.
Britain also witnessed the rapid spread of Theochron. Currently, infections with related variants account for about 40% of new cases in London, UK, and around 20% in England.
The Health Security Agency said that due to the impact of Omicron, the number of confirmed cases in the UK doubled on average in 2.5 days. Compared to Delta, Omilon showed a significant growth advantage, with significantly higher data on household transmission rates and secondary infection rates (the chances of a case infecting another person).
"We speculate that the number of cases of infection in Omikejon in the UK may have reached 200,000. Due to the lack of self-testing kits, a large number of cases are not detected in time. British Health Secretary Javid said that in the next 2-4 weeks, Opickron will replace Delta as the most important epidemic strain in the UK, and the number of new infections may exceed one million.
As infections have risen, hospitalizations in the UK have increased slightly, and data on deaths have not changed. On the 12th, British Health Minister Javid said that at least 10 people were hospitalized for infection with Omiclon. They ranged in age from 18 to 85 and most were vaccinated with two doses.
Photo caption: As of December 13 and 7 local time, the UK's last seven days of infections (left) and hospitalizations (right) curves are on the rise, up 6.2% and 14% respectively. /Daily Mail
At present, the UK has adjusted the COVID-19 alert level from the third level to the fourth level. The highest level is level 5.
Since the 13th, the United Kingdom, which has been "lying flat against the epidemic" for nearly half a year, has once again shrunk its epidemic prevention strategy: resuming the implementation of the guidelines for remote work from home; the compulsory wearing of masks has been expanded from public transportation and shops to public places such as theaters and movie theaters; it is necessary to hold a vaccine pass to enter and exit places with high traffic.
The Guardian pointed out that the above decision means that the UK's national health service system is under great pressure.
All are mild diseases, don't be afraid?
The WHO notes in its update that the diagnostic accuracy of routinely used PCR and antigen-based rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDT) does not appear to be affected at this time. We can still detect people infected with Omikerong quickly and in a timely manner.
The briefing also said that the overall threat posed by Omiqueron depends on three key factors: the spread of transmission, the immune evasivity of vaccines and previous infections, and the pathogenicity compared to other variants.
Judging from the research and real-world data, its spread power cannot be underestimated. The European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has warned that Omikeron could become the leading epidemic strain in Europe as soon as January-March 2022.
The sudden increase in epidemic data means that a large number of patients will enter the hospital and receive treatment at the same time. Michael Tildesley, a professor at the University of Warwick's School of Life Sciences, said that at that time, the United Kingdom may repeat the scene in January this year, and a large number of patients have died due to lack of timely treatment.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine model predicts that in the most optimistic scenario, where the virus's immune escape capacity is weak and vaccine enhancers are effective, there will be 24,700 new deaths in England from December 1 this year to the end of April next year.
In the worst case scenario, 492,000 people will be admitted to hospitals in England for COVID-19, with a death toll of 74,800. At that time, measures such as wearing masks, social distancing, and vaccinations will not be enough to prevent a medical run. This prediction paper has not been peer-reviewed.
Paul Hunt, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, disagreed with the prediction. He told the Guardian that the model had a key assumption that the symptoms caused by the Omiljung infection were consistent with Delta. But the South African case showed milder symptoms of the Ami kerong infection. Therefore, based on false assumptions, it can lead to high forecast data.
Faried Abdullah, publisher of South Africa's first Opichron clinical data report, said local patients currently need less medical intervention. The report analyzes 42 COVID-19 patients admitted to Steve Biko General Hospital in Gauteng Province, South Africa, between 14 November and 29 November, of whom 29 did not require oxygen and did not have any respiratory symptoms. Of the 13 patients who needed oxygen, 4 were motivated by the need to treat other diseases.
Abdullah said the best measure of disease severity is hospitalization mortality. During the study, the average length of stay at Steve Biko General Hospital was reduced from 8 days to 2.8 days. There were 9 COVID-19 deaths, accounting for about 6% of hospital admissions during the same period. In the past 18 months, the hospital's mortality rate has been 17%. "The trend will become clearer in the coming weeks." Abdullah said.
Gerald Gass, president of the German Hospital Association, once told Bild that changes in severe and fatal data are generally two to three weeks after the changes in confirmed data.
The United Kingdom and South Africa are standing at this point in time.
"Even if most people are completely fine, it doesn't mean that everyone is okay. There is still great uncertainty in all the data. The BBC said.
Photo caption: On December 13, local time, hundreds of people lined up outside St Thomas' Hospital in London, England, waiting for the new crown vaccine booster. /i-Images
Two doses of the vaccine have been found to be "unstoppable"
Omi kerong may weaken the effectiveness of existing vaccines. The existing research data makes people laugh.
The Lianhe Zaobao quoted a joint study by the University of Hong Kong and the University of Chinese School of Medicine in China as saying that compared with the original strain, the neutralization capacity of a brand of mRNA vaccine after adequate vaccination of a certain brand of mRNA vaccine was reduced by 97%.
On December 10, local time, the British Health Security Agency released a preliminary investigation report on the preventive effect of vaccines on Omicron, which was mixed.
The survey traced 581 infections with the Ami kerong variant and 56,439 delta infections. The results showed that after completing the full amount of a certain brand of adenovirus vaccine, the protective effect against symptomatic infection of Aomi Kerong was almost zero. After the completion of sufficient vaccination of a brand of mRNA vaccine, the relevant effectiveness is about 35%.
If the booster needle is given, the situation may be different. After the mix of 2 doses of adenovirus vaccine + 1 dose of mRNA vaccine was strengthened, the effectiveness of preventing symptomatic infection of Omi kerong was increased to 71%, and if two doses of mRNA vaccine were given, another dose of mRNA enhancement was increased to 76%.
The UK Health Security Agency cautioned that the number of samples involved in this survey was too small to reflect the overall picture. In particular, the small sample size of adenovirus vaccination and the fact that the vaccinated person is older or has more underlying medical conditions can affect the results.
At present, the United Kingdom has announced the implementation of a full staff strengthening plan for adults over the age of 18. This was 2 months earlier than originally planned. At the same time, the UK has also shortened the interval between vaccinations from 5 months to 3 months.
But the barrier of a 3-dose vaccine is not impenetrable. The Danish National Institute of Serum released a report on the 12th that the country is currently confirmed to have 2471 people infected with Omi kerong, of which 234 people have been vaccinated with reinforcing needles.
For the future spread of Omicron, at the life science sub-forum of the 2021 Greater Bay Area Science Forum held on December 12, Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, shared his views online: "We can imagine several scenarios in the future of Omicron transmission: the best situation is that its virulence is weak and only spreads in South Africa. It is acceptable that it is strongly transmitted and virulent, but the vaccine enhancement is effective against it. The most serious situation is that it is strongly transmitted, more virulent, and the vaccine is strengthened to target it ineffectively. Then we need to re-examine the vaccine strategy and tighten prevention and control. ”
Science blogger @Zhuang Shilihe posted: "For epidemic control, vaccination and strict NPI (non-drug intervention) are very important. According to the existing understanding of Omicron and the neutralization results of other vaccines, the protective power of two-shot inactivation is likely to decline sharply (including the prevention of infection and the prevention of severe disease), and the results of three injections are urgently needed... If the existing three-shot inactivation still does not provide effective protection, and the exclusive vaccine may take several months from development to real mass vaccination, then this winter, we may need to control the spread of Aumicron through stricter NPI measures. ”
Source:
1.Omicron is spreading fast. That's alarming even if it's mild. CNN
2.NHS raises alert to HIGHEST level as UK Omicron cases jump 50% in 24 hours to almost 5,000 and Boris confirms first death with mutant strain — but overall daily Covid infections rise just 6% to 54,661 as booster drive descends into chaos on first day. Daily Mail
3.Denmark and Norway Predict Drastic Spike in Omicron Cases. The New York Times
4.Several Hundred Danes Infected With Omicron Strain Despite Being Jabbed Three Times. Sputniknews
5. Weibo @ Zhuang Shilihe
Source: Medical community
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