"Innovation on wheels" knocks on the door of new technologies China's intelligent cars have experienced from manufacturing to creation

Reporter Gong Mengze

In 2021, China will not only become the largest contributor to global economic growth, but also hope to win the world's largest automobile consumer market.

According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile sales are expected to exceed 26 million in 2021, of which the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 3.4 million.

"The automotive industry is struggling to overcome the impact of many unfavorable factors such as tight power supply and high raw material prices, especially the supply situation of vehicle-grade chips has improved in the fourth quarter, and automobile production and sales have shown a recovery trend." Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that the overall situation of automobile production and sales this year is good.

"The growth rate of the auto market this year has exceeded expectations, but it is in line with the logic of development, which is the result of technological progress, product enrichment and policy power." Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, told the Securities Daily reporter that since the beginning of this year, the sales volume and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have increased rapidly month by month, and the market has entered a stage of explosive growth.

At the same time, the new energy vehicle market has also encountered a series of challenges, including the sustainable development of battery technology, industry and material resources, the interaction between fast charging and fast replacement and the car network, and the problem of green and smart energy. In the next 5 to 10 years, the new energy automobile industry may undergo multiple rounds of major reshuffles, and it is still worth waiting and seeing who will die.

The window of the intelligent electric vehicle industry has arrived

Capital technology products are intensively exploded

On December 1, as the head car companies of the new domestic car manufacturing forces, they posted their report cards, and the delivery of new cars in November increased by more than 100% year-on-year. On the other side of the ocean, Musk cashed out more than $10 billion in a month, whether it is a beautiful performance or a myth of wealth creation, it clearly points out the development direction of the "new era of car manufacturing".

The vast new energy vehicle market and the market value of listed car companies have attracted countless capitals to bend their waists. According to the theory of innovation diffusion, when the market share of innovative products exceeds a certain proportion, with the continuous improvement of the maturity of new technologies, the continuous decline of supply chain costs, the continuous cultivation of consumption habits and the continuous growth of the surrounding ecology, innovative products will enter a period of rapid growth.

In 2021, the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 400,000 for the first time. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars is close to 20%, and the best time window to enter the intelligent electric vehicle industry has arrived.

In this context, a new round of intelligent electric vehicles "hot" is making a comeback. Since the beginning of this year, Xiaomi, Baidu, OPPO, Apple, 360, Maverick Electric and many other players outside the circle have come forward and crossed over shoulders. In the eyes of investors in the capital market, whether it is the traditional automobile industry or the ICT (information and communication technology) industry represented by smart phones, the future imagination space has narrowed, and cross-border lane change to the field of intelligent electric vehicles has become the most urgent choice for capital.

"Under the dual carbon target, new energy vehicles have become the ultimate goal of the development of the automotive industry." Zhang Hong, secretary general of the New Energy Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that after China's proposed carbon neutrality deadline, the development of intelligent new energy vehicles has become the only choice.

In the past two years, the in-depth changes in the fields of automobile research and development, supply chain, manufacturing, and after-sales service brought about by electrification are rapidly flattening the above thresholds. At the Hon Hai Technology Day held in October this year, Hon Hai Group founder Terry Gou drove an electric car to the scene and said with emotion: "This is the best birthday gift I have received since I was 71 years old."

For Foxconn, the new car release is also the best gift received on the road of transformation. The rise of the professional foundry model represented by Foxconn has changed the asset-heavy attributes of the traditional automobile industry, allowing Apple's asset-light and high-profit model in the field of smart phones to be copied in the automotive industry. At the same time, driven by the tide of intelligence and networking, the current automobile is being given a new form - software-defined, data-driven, remote iteration, user operation, etc., which is well coupled with the natural long board of ICT enterprises.

Although capital is very optimistic, the timing is also coincidental, the technical talent is complete, and the users are also very popular, but cross-border investors want to succeed in the field of smart electric vehicles, there are many challenges. For example, at least 24 months in advance for the first model to define the product, and to develop a plan for the next 1 to 2 products, etc.

The entry of more and more outstanding enterprises has prompted the intelligent electric vehicle industry to accelerate fission, and has also created more opportunities for cross-border investors. How can we innovate and change to bring better products and experiences? How to redefine the manufacturing, sales, service and profit model of the automotive industry and open up a new path in user operation? Both the industry and consumers are looking forward to cross-border investors to deliver a satisfactory answer.

"Lack of core" breaks the inertia of supplier selection

Local chip companies are embracing significant opportunities

If you use a word to make a footnote for the auto industry in 2021, "missing core" is undoubtedly the most appropriate.

Affected by the epidemic, since the end of last year, the shortage of chips has led to tight supply and demand in the automotive industry. This year's successive earthquakes in northeastern Japan, the cold wave in the south-central United States, and the fire of global chip manufacturer Renesas Electronics have all made automotive chip production capacity worse.

The "roller coaster" delivery situation of Weilai Automobile in recent months is a true portrayal of the development of the automotive industry this year. Affected by the chip shortage, Weilai Automobile first survived the continuous downturn in July and August this year, and the delivery volume in September rushed to 10,628 units. However, October deliveries fell 65.5% month-on-month; November deliveries surged 105.6% year-on-year, setting a new monthly delivery high. Li Bin, founder and CEO of Weilai Automobile, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that the company has the ability to produce 10,000 electric vehicles per month in the first quarter of this year, but due to the global chip shortage and battery supply restrictions, the delivery volume is frozen.

"On the one hand, it is the 'blowout' of the intelligent new energy vehicle market, on the other hand, the pressure on the supply chain and other aspects is everywhere, and in the end, the hard-won sales volume has continuously exceeded 10,000." If you are not in it, it is difficult to understand the taste. In the face of the test of chip supply, Li Pengcheng, vice president of Xiaopeng Automobile and general manager of brand public relations, also said with emotion.

Auto suppliers have always had great selection inertia, and if a company can successfully enter the list of auto suppliers, it will usually receive a steady stream of orders. The premise of becoming a world-renowned supplier of car companies is to pass the component certification of AEC institutions.

AEC is the abbreviation of the Automotive Electronics Commission of the United States, led by Chrysler, Ford and General Motors, the three largest north American car companies. Under the background of weak research and development foundation, it is extremely difficult for Chinese automotive chip companies to obtain the recognition of world-renowned car companies. In the absence of industrial chain support, blind research and development of vehicle rules chips is difficult for Chinese car companies to achieve economic benefits, therefore, for a long time, domestic chip companies develop and produce basic products with low technical added value, it is difficult to rank among the suppliers of international automobile manufacturers, and lack of opportunities for continuous iteration.

The lack of core storm has unexpectedly given Chinese chip companies the opportunity to catch up with international advanced chip companies. "The use of a new power system for new energy vehicles has narrowed the gap between global players, and everyone has almost returned to the same running line." Zhang Xiaoguang, an analyst in the automotive industry, said that electrification is only the first step for new energy vehicles. Lack of core is not a problem that can be solved in a short period of time, in the case of growing demand, it is bound to need new production capacity to solve, which provides us with new development opportunities.

In September last year, led by the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and jointly composed of more than 70 enterprises and institutions, the "China Automotive Chip Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance" was formally established, which shows the importance that the state attaches to the development of automotive chips.

Qiu Yujing, CEO of Xinchi Technology, told the Securities Daily reporter that after experiencing the lack of core turmoil, auto companies and Tier1 have paid unprecedented attention to the safety and resilience of the supply chain and began to pay more attention to Chinese enterprises. China's local chip companies have outstanding advantages in decision-making, rapid response and local support, not only have a more accurate insight into the needs of Chinese customers, but also can output customized products that are more in line with the needs and habits of use from the perspective of customers, and the advantages of differentiated development are highlighted.

The carbon trading market has reached the trillion level

New energy vehicle companies incarnate to sell "carbon" weng

The national carbon market officially opened this year, and a trillion-yuan market blueprint was slowly unfolded. Low-carbon industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics have been given unlimited imagination space by the market. The industry generally believes that it will take time for the road transport industry to be included in the carbon trading market, but the double credit policy of the automotive industry has taken the rudimentary shape of carbon trading marketization.

More and more traditional car companies are actively deploying in the field of new energy vehicles, laying the foundation for generating more positive points for new energy vehicles. The transformation of traditional car companies and new car-making forces have become the biggest winners in obtaining positive points for new energy vehicles.

On July 15 this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the State Administration of Market Regulation and other four ministries and commissions announced the average fuel consumption of Chinese passenger car enterprises and the credits of new energy vehicles in 2020. According to the data, among the 138 passenger car companies, there are 11 car companies with more than 100,000 points of "double integral", including new energy vehicle companies such as Tesla and BYD; there are 71 negative points companies, accounting for 60%, becoming a large "buy point" household under the "double points" policy.

"In the fourth quarter of last year, the gross profit of carbon credit sales was 120 million yuan, contributing 1.8% to gross profit margin." Qu Yu, chairman of Shanghai Weilai Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., told the Securities Daily reporter. According to Li Bin, last year, Weilai generated 200,000 positive points, and more income can be obtained by selling points.

The "Securities Daily" reporter learned that although the scale of points for new car-making forces is small, it is all pure income, which is very impressive for new car-making enterprises in the loss stage. The research report of Industrial Securities shows that the current transaction price of new energy points has risen from the initial 300 yuan / min to 500 yuan / min to 2500 yuan / min to 3000 yuan / min, and even exceeded 6000 yuan / min in 2022. Even according to the unit price of 3,000 yuan / minute, Tesla's 860,300 new energy credits in 2020 are worth as much as 2.58 billion yuan; BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling have points worth up to 2.262 billion yuan and 1.32 billion yuan respectively; If the four new car-making forces such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weima and Ideal sell all the points, they can get 600 million yuan, 330 million yuan, 300 million yuan and 210 million yuan respectively.

As of December this year, SAIC-GM-Wuling has locked in the 2021 new energy vehicle sales champion in advance, while Tesla and BYD's sales performance is far ahead of other car companies. This means that the above 3 car companies have locked in hundreds of thousands of points and interests that can be traded at any time and continue to rise in advance.

While the points transaction brings huge income to the new car-making forces, it also brings greater operating pressure to negative points car companies. "With the continuous rise in the price of new energy vehicle credits, the six major car enterprise groups have generally increased their losses. Taking Changan Group as an example, last year, due to the double point gap, the bicycle profit reduction was about 4,000 yuan. Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, said in an interview at the beginning of the year.

"The European Union already imposes a carbon tax on high-emission car products and requires carbon footprint declarations for car batteries." In Zhang Xiaoguang's view, the pain is inevitable, but in order to achieve high-quality economic development and to be free from new trade rules in the future, car companies must strictly adhere to low-carbon or even zero-carbon manufacturing requirements.