The intimidation of the United States cannot deter the determination of Japanese and American companies and German companies to develop in China
Takashi Hashimoto
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Seventy years ago, after Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech, the Cold War between East and West had taken shape. Why launch the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union were originally allies in World War II, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once had a secret plan, after the Allies defeated Germany, the Western bloc led by the United States fought a decisive battle with the Soviet Union, using the Advantages of the United States in military equipment and materials to completely solve the problem. However, the war between the United States and the Soviet Union did not occur, because in World War II, European countries also suffered an unprecedented blow, except for the United States, the rest of the countries have no ability to fight again, and Europe needs to rebuild. The same is true of the Soviet Union, after the Great Purge, the Great Patriotic War, the national strength was greatly weakened, so the two sides gave up the "hot war", replaced the confrontation with the "Cold War", and competed between countries. So the so-called "competition" proposed by President Biden is the Cold War.
The most important symbol of the Cold War was the Berlin Wall, a self-enclosing measure taken by Khrushchev to prevent the Western bloc from poaching East Germany' manpower. The Eastern Bloc is no longer open to the West and establishes its own economic circle, which is the Economic Mutual Aid Association, while the Western countries have also established economic circles under the instructions of the United States, and economic development needs people, and the movement of people must be based on economic conditions. From the 1950s, the Soviet Union's economy gradually lagged behind the West, and in the 80s, the United States took the lead in provoking the "Star Wars" cosmic competition, and finally the military competition collapsed without economic support, and the United States completely won the victory of the competition, that is, the victory of the Cold War, replacing the Influence of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe.
The United States was able to defeat the Soviet Union, the most important thing was to defeat the Soviet Union economically, and in the late Cold War, the Soviet Union was short of materials and the dissatisfaction of the people shook the foundation of society. At that time, Gorbachev wanted to ease relations with China and cooperate with China to ease economic contradictions. But time has not allowed him to do so. Eventually, the Soviet Union disintegrated and completely withdrew from the stage of history. Since the 1980s, China has always adhered to openness and actively promoted economic development, and after joining the World Trade Organization around 2000, its economy has developed by leaps and bounds. By 2020, GDP is already close to 70% of the United States, more than japan. The United States found that the competition with the Soviet Union in the past was only military competition, and the emergence of China, not only military competition, but also economic competition, so from the beginning of former President Trump, it was believed that to defeat China is to prevent China's economic development, to prevent China's economic development, it is necessary to decouple from China and cut off economic ties with China, so that China's military and economic influence can be eliminated, which is the theoretical basis of the "decoupling theory".
The United States in various fields, all-round encirclement of China, the purpose is to those in China foreign enterprises encounter difficulties, force these enterprises to leave China, the Japanese media since April last year continue to report the news of Japanese companies to transfer production bases, former Japanese Prime Minister Abe called on Japanese companies to leave China and return to Japan to produce. However, in the past year (June 4, 2021), the proportion of imports from China has risen from Japan's imports, and the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has surveyed companies, and if Japanese companies expand production in the future, which country will Japanese companies go to? Choose China or first.
Many of my friends used the example of Tesla in the United States to tell the author that American companies should decouple from China and American companies should leave. Because Tesla paid off the loan 3 years in advance, but froze the original plan to expand reproduction, it is said that this is because of the reason for the US-China relationship. The author believes that the Tesla freeze has nothing to do with "decoupling", but has doubts about expanding reproduction, because the most important reason for Tesla's investment in China that year was the US-China trade war, and if Tesla produced cars in the United States, it would have to pay 25% more tax in China. At present, the competition for electric vehicles is fierce, has 300,000 production, and then expand 300,000, meet everyone to seriously think, but the Tesla car produced in China is the lowest cost, the best-selling Tesla car, so when it comes to "decoupling", unless Musk does not want to build a car, it should not be withdrawn. In the same way, Apple mobile phone is also like this, Foxconn has moved the IPAD MacBook factory to Vietnam and India, this news has aroused great concern in Japan, in fact, Foxconn has long wanted to do so in order to reduce costs, but Southeast Asia, the problem of low efficiency of Indian factories, has forced Foxconn to suspend the loading and transfer, and even transferred back to China, transferred out to make money, can not make money, the efficiency is still slow, can only come back.
In 2020, the Abe regime, with the support of the Trump regime, took the lead in shouting encouragement for "decoupling" and demanded that Japanese companies return to Japan, and Japan was even willing to provide subsidies. At that time, Prime Minister Abe mentioned that Due to the closure of China due to the epidemic, auto parts cannot be exported, affecting Japanese automobile production, which has a negative impact on the supply of Japanese parts, encouraging Japanese companies to return to Japan or go to Southeast Asian countries, and Japan is preparing about 2.2 billion US dollars for financial support.
More than a year has passed, what is The strategy of Japan's parts supply chain? At present, the proportion of Goods imported by Japan from overseas comes from China. In 2017 before the US-China trade friction, China accounted for about 25% of Japan's imports, and the proportion of China in Japan's imports has hardly changed since 2018. In March 2020, this proportion dropped to about 15% due to the impact of the epidemic, which is the moment when the former prime minister of Abe asked Japanese companies to "decouple" from China. After November 2020, about 30% of Japan's imports come from China. Among them, Japan has repeatedly stressed that the number of auto parts from China should be reduced. (2020, 1, 5. June decreased)
The idea of "decoupling" from China was there before former President Trump launched the U.S.-China trade war, on the grounds that Chinese wages were rising, the advantages of U.S. and Japanese manufacturers in Producing in China were decreasing, and leaving China to go to a country with low labor costs became a choice of production costs rather than an ideological choice. A year ago, I mentioned that the "decoupling" of former Prime Minister Abe would not bear fruit, for the following reasons:
1) Productivity is not only the cost, but also the savings of production, the industrial system is complete, can ensure normal supply, so far can replace China's countries do not
2) The importance of the Chinese market has not changed
In 2020, among the world's major powers, China is the first to resume production, the earliest to control the epidemic, and has achieved positive growth, and China has been growing positively for 20 consecutive years, which is the best proof of the world economic power. At least in the next 5 years, the possibility of China's economy maintaining medium-high growth has always existed. Even if the United States and China are fiercely opposed, the Chinese market is an important market that major companies around the world expect.
The Japan External Trade Organization, the U.S.-China Chamber of Commerce, and others conducted investigations in China, and even though the United States continued to impose various additional tariff measures on China, the desire of U.S. and Japanese companies to expand trade in China did not diminish. 40% of enterprises want to expand the current business scope, 19% want to maintain the current business situation, if the investment is preferred, China is close to 50%, Vietnam 40%, the United States 40%. Of the countries that are likely to do business in the next three years, China is surpassing India and ranking first. The author also found that in addition to the United States, Japanese companies, German companies also hold the same view, of which 97% of the companies replied that there is no plan to withdraw from China. The remaining 3% of enterprises answered, of which 2% said that there was no retreat plan, but had considered it, and 1% of enterprises believed that the rising labor cost was the reason for having to retreat.
If you rank the top 10 administrative regions of Japan, the United States and China, the GDP is as follows: California, Texas, New York, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Florida, Shandong, Tokyo, Illinois, Zhejiang, and three of the original Four Tigers, Xiangjiang, Taiwan, and Singapore are all Chinese. China's modern industrialization has surpassed Japan, so Japan should not choose the side, but put the egg on both sides is in Japan's greatest interest. However, there is such a thing in japan's disease, and Abe and others believe that the United States will definitely win, so they can't wait to show it. Why this is the case, including former Prime Minister Abe, but also President Biden, do not understand China. Recently, the Asahi Shimbun reporter visited the Guangzhou Auto Show, and has been described as shocked by the development of China's electric vehicles (carbon-neutral technology), and it is difficult for Japan to imagine things happening in China, thinking that it is not possible to see it with your own eyes and not to experience it personally without knowing China's "power".
From this, it can be seen that the United States still wants to return to the Cold War and use ideology to block China's external ties. But the United States forgot that the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union was the Soviet Union's passive confrontation and the construction of a high wall to resist the United States. And now in the face of China's economic shock, the United States passively to meet the battle, with tariff barriers to deal with, this is the difference between active and passive, the Cold War of the United States not only can not deter enterprises in China's production, and this trend is getting bigger and bigger, the result is that the United States needs to re-choose a new strategy, otherwise the failure is even more tragic.
Former name: Japanese reporters in China investigate the real strength of shocked China