Through the three quarterly reports of Moutai in Guizhou, we can see that the company's operating income in the first three quarters of 2021 was 74.642 billion yuan, an increase of 11.05% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the mother was 37.266 billion yuan, an increase of 10.17% year-on-year; the single-quarter operating income in the third quarter was 25.555 billion yuan, an increase of 9.86% year-on-year; and the net profit attributable to the mother in the third quarter was 12.612 billion yuan, an increase of 12.35% year-on-year. As of September 30, 2021, the number of shareholders in Guizhou Moutai was 175,300 yuan, and the stock price was 1,830 yuan, while on June 30, 2020, the number of shareholders was 114,300 yuan, and the stock price was 1,669 yuan.
In the June 30 interim report, the total number of institutions holding Guizhou Moutai reached a new high of 2358 in recent years, accounting for 78.69% of the shares, while on September 30, it became 1605, accounting for 77.2% of the shares, a decrease of about 0.18 billion shares. The stock price fell from 2057 yuan to 1830 yuan.
Guizhou Moutai received 41 brokerage research reports in the past month during the three quarterly reports, and most of the ratings given were buy or even strongly recommended, with an average target price of 2314.69 yuan. Compared with today's closing price of 1804.2 yuan, there is a gap of about 510.49 yuan, an increase of about 28%.
Wuliangye third quarter report in the third quarter, Wuliangye performance continued to maintain a steady and progressive trend, the company achieved revenue of 12.97 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 10.61% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother of 4.127 billion yuan, an increase of 11.84%. In the first three quarters of this year, Wuliangye achieved revenue of 49.721 billion yuan, an increase of 17.01% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother was 17.327 billion yuan, an increase of 19.13% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin of sales was as high as 76.12%, an increase of 1.61% year-on-year.
As of September 30, 2021, Wuliangye had 560,300 shareholders and a stock price of 219.4 yuan, while on June 30, 2020, the number of shareholders was 276,000 and the stock price was 171.1 yuan.
In the mid-report on June 30, the total number of institutions holding Wuliangye reached a new high of 1980 in recent years, accounting for 79.06% of the shares, while on September 30, it became 978, accounting for 75.4% of the shares, a decrease of about 150 million shares. The stock price fell from 297.9 yuan to 219.4 yuan.
In the past month, Wuliangye has received 16 securities company research reports, buying 13 companies, with an average target price of 282.32 yuan, compared with the latest price of 206.82 yuan, 75.5 yuan higher, and the target average price increase is close to 38%.
Shanxi Fenjiu reported in the third quarter, achieving operating income of 5.138 billion yuan, an increase of 47.8% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother was 1.335 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2% year-on-year. Gross margin in the third quarter was 76.2%, down 1.02% sequentially, and net profit margin was 26.2%, down 2.9%. In the first three quarters, Shanxi Fenjiu achieved operating income of 17.257 billion yuan, an increase of 66.24% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.879 billion yuan, an increase of 95.13% year-on-year.
As of September 30, 2021, the number of shareholders of Shanxi Fenjiu was 80,400 yuan, and the stock price was 315 yuan; as of June 30, 2020, the number of shareholders was 36,200, and the stock price was 145 yuan.
In the mid-report on June 30, the total number of institutions holding Shanxi Fenjiu reached a new high of 949 in recent years, accounting for 62.28% of the shares, while on September 30, it became 401, accounting for 84.91% of the shares, an increase of about 280 million shares. The stock price fell from 448 yuan to 215.5 yuan. This change is mainly due to the fact that the top ten shareholders have successively increased their holdings in Shanxi Fenjiu on the way down.
In the past month, it has received 14 securities research reports, bought 13 companies, increased holdings of 1, and the average target price is 356.25 yuan, compared with the latest price of 293.32 yuan, 69.55 yuan higher, and the target average price increased by more than 20%.
Luzhou Laojiao reported in the third quarter, achieving revenue of 4.793 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 20.89% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother of 2.049 billion yuan, an increase of 28.48% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the revenue reached 14.110 billion yuan, an increase of 21.65% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 6.276 billion yuan, an increase of 30.32% year-on-year.
As of September 30, 2021, the number of shareholders of Luzhou Laojiao was 195,900 yuan, and the stock price was 221.58 yuan; while on June 30, 2020, the number of shareholders was 218,500 yuan, and the stock price was 235.94 yuan. On July 10, 2020, the number of shareholders announced was 109,600, and the stock price was 121.5 yuan
In the mid-report on June 30, the total number of institutions holding Luzhou Laojiao reached a new high of 1,059 in recent years, accounting for 77.25% of the shares, while on September 30, it became 419, accounting for 73.86% of the shares, a decrease of about 0.5 billion shares. The stock price fell from 235.9 yuan to 211.6 yuan.
Luzhou Laojiao has received 24 securities research reports in the past month, with an average target price of 274.52 yuan. Compared with the latest price of 234.77 yuan, it is 39.75 yuan higher, and the target average price is up more than 14%.
According to the third quarter report of Yanghe Co., Ltd. in 2021, the operating income achieved 6.399 billion yuan during the reporting period, an increase of 16.66% year-on-year; the non-net profit attributable to the mother was 1.682 billion yuan, an increase of 22.95% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the operating income was 21.942 billion yuan, an increase of 16.01% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 7.213 billion yuan, an increase of 0.37% year-on-year.
As of September 30, 2021, Yanghe had 160,000 shareholders and a stock price of 166.08 yuan, while on December 31, 2020, the number of shareholders was 218,500 yuan, with a stock price of 235.94 yuan. On July 10, 2020, the number of shareholders announced was 77,700, and the stock price was 235.99 yuan
In the mid-report on June 30, the total number of institutions holding Yanghe shares reached a new high of 608 in recent years, accounting for 67.63% of the shares, while on September 30, it became 114, accounting for 68.28% of the shares, an increase of about 0.1 billion shares. The stock price fell from 207.2 yuan to 166.1 yuan. This is mainly due to the increase in holdings of the top ten shareholders on the way to the decline in stock prices.
Yanghe shares have received the attention of 24 securities research reports in the past month, and the average target price is 274.52 yuan. Compared with the latest price of 234.77 yuan, it is 39.75 yuan higher, and the target average price is up more than 14%.
Today, November 4, 2021, the market value of the above five major liquor companies is 2266.432 billion yuan in Guizhou Moutai; Wuliangye 802.774 billion; Shanxi Fenjiu 356.487 billion; Luzhou Laojiao 343.760 billion; and Yanghe shares 233.152 billion. The total market value of these five major liquor companies is more than 4,000 billion.
Seeing these data, I still feel very touched in my heart, this is not the time when the market value of these companies is the highest, after a period of adjustment in the previous period, the market value has declined.
According to the annual reports of the five major liquor companies in 2020,
Guizhou Moutai revenue of 94.82 billion, profit of 86.76 billion, gross profit margin of 91%;
Wuliangye's revenue is 57.32 billion yuan, profit is 42.09 billion yuan, and gross profit margin is 80%;
Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue is 11.75 billion yuan, profit is 10 billion yuan, and gross profit margin is 72%;
Luzhou Laojiao has a revenue of 16.45 billion yuan, a profit of 13.79 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 83.04%;
Yanghe has revenue of 20.3 billion yuan, profit of 15.24 billion yuan, and gross profit margin of 74%;
The total revenue of the five companies is 200.64 billion yuan, and the total profit is 167.88 billion yuan, which is such data, which supports the current market value of 4,000 billion yuan.
We all know that the liquor industry is not in line with the direction of the national industry, in this year's IPO, some liquor companies strive to go public, and some strive to go public through the channel, but under the inquiry letter of the regulatory authorities, they eventually led to their withdrawal of the application.
This year's Mid-Autumn Festival National Day double festival, the liquor market situation is not optimistic, and there is no imaginary "golden nine silver ten" appeared, with the decline in consumption expectations, the overall expectations of the liquor market have been discounted a lot.
In 2021, the total turnover of Tianjin Autumn Sugar and Wine Fair was 21.078 billion yuan. I did not find the most specific liquor sales data; however, in 2020, the turnover of Zhengzhou Sugar and Wine Club was 12.4 billion yuan, so today's Tianjin Sugar and Wine Club should be roughly on this order of magnitude. In terms of publicity, it is definitely a bunting flag display, but some people use a relatively depressed to describe this year's sugar and wine party. Even if the 21 billion yuan is all liquor procurement, compared with the 200 billion yuan revenue of the above 5 companies, it is not an event that can affect the company's operations. Therefore, the sales of liquor at the Tianjin Sugar and Wine Fair this year are not optimistic. According to other sources, the liquor purchased by the buyer in the price increase expectation, especially the sauce liquor, has not yet been sold, so the desire to hoard goods this year will certainly not be strong.
The most concerned event of liquor after the National Day is undoubtedly the price reduction of Moutai in Guizhou, and the price reduction is not small. We are not professionals, so we will not consider the specific financial implications here. But what I want to say is that the reason why Guizhou Moutai was able to soar and attract many investors before was because of the price increase expectations of Guizhou Moutai and its own pricing power, so the market gave a higher price-earnings ratio. Even at the close of today, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of Moutai in Guizhou is still 45 times, higher than a considerable number of companies on the ChiNext board and the science and technology innovation board. However, at the same time that the price increase expectation disappeared, Moutai began to reduce sales, which is the biggest threat to the stock price of Moutai in Guizhou. This is where there is a price inflection point that has clearly emerged. The withdrawal of some foreign funds also poses negative news for the future of Moutai.
Among the top five liquor companies by market capitalization, the proportion of the top ten shareholders of Shanxi Fenjiu and Yanghe Shares has increased, which is related to the good performance of these two companies this year, so the stock prices of these two companies are relatively firm. The top ten shareholders continue to buy, and the dividends of these two companies next year are most likely to be very impressive. However, under the circumstances of changes in the general environment of the liquor sector, the future stock price trend of these two companies, I personally believe, will not jump out of the impact of the entire liquor environment.
The situation in which liquor-related companies formed in 2020 and the first half of 2021 echo the rise in the securities market and the liquor physical market and jointly promote development is likely to not appear again.
For companies such as liquor, although the market value has declined, it is still very large. In the foreseeable future, it is basically impossible for these companies to achieve rapid development. Even maintaining the current situation is not an easy task. Therefore, the logic of expecting the company's rapid development to drive the stock price up does not exist.
It is a fact that the gross profit margin of liquor listed companies is very high, and the ability of these companies to make money is also very strong. Thus also attracting a lot of capital, in the securities and physical markets, two-front combat. This situation is inconsistent with our original intention of vigorously developing the Beijing Stock Exchange and looking forward to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises with the help of capital. Once this situation continues to attract the attention of relevant departments, for the entire liquor sector, it is necessary to reposition.
In my previous article, I have made an analogy that Guizhou Moutai will copy the trend of East Ejiao, this judgment is still relatively correct, you can see the trend of the two companies.
Now there is a rebound in East Ejiao, and the intensity is not small, but Guizhou Moutai may not have such a rebound. Therefore, I changed to a company, that is, Sany Heavy Industry.
5 days ago, in the article about Weichai Power, I recorded that Weichai Power received a total of 9 securities companies' research report attention in the three quarters, and when the stock price was about 20 yuan at that time, it gave the average target price of 26.11 yuan to buy or increase its holdings. Now, in the face of breaking the 15 yuan integer mark and closing at 15.19 yuan today, Weichai Power does not know what the guiding significance of such a research report is.
For the above 5 companies with the largest market value of liquor, the company research report and the expected stock price in the third quarter, I also recorded it, and time will prove everything, we will wait and see.
In my own opinion, I will basically not pay attention to the liquor sector in two years. Even if the market value of the above 5 companies is cut to 2,000 billion, I feel that there are still more. I would focus myself on other companies.
I have this point of view, not that these companies are bad. Obviously, these companies are cash cows, super profitable, and all good companies. However, in the securities market, the valuations of these companies have been fully reflected, and even some are overvalued. Now is the time for valuations to return, that is, the valuations given to them are on a downward slope, and these companies are returning to rational valuations. The market value of these companies is relatively large, so the decline in valuation is also a relatively long process. The decline is too fast, and the size of these companies may have an adverse impact on the securities market, which is what everyone does not want to see.
Sany Heavy Industry and Weichai Power are already in the front.
Winter is coming, heavy snow is flying, I wish you all the best in your investment! Good luck!