In the office of the editor-in-chief of the Chicago Tribune, there is always a photograph of a man with glasses holding up a newspaper and laughing, and the front page of the newspaper reads: "Dewey defeats Truman."
The newspaper laughing in the photo is none other than Truman, the Democratic candidate who had just won the 1948 election.
Before the election, almost all forecasters came to the same conclusion about the outcome of the election: Republican candidate Dewey would have an overwhelming victory over the current president, the Democratic candidate Truman.
The editors of the Chicago Tribune also believe that Dewey's victory in the election has been nailed down, so they decided not to wait for the election results to write a report, directly wrote a report on Dewey's election in advance, but the result was unexpected by everyone, Truman achieved a headwind reversal in the election, defeated Dewey, and won re-election.
The Chicago Tribune, which had written Dewey's victory in advance, had become a laughing stock, and now, more than half a century later, the editors of the Current Chicago Tribune may be able to laugh at the embarrassing situation they experienced in their predecessors, but the faces of the editors-in-chief of that year must have been very ugly.
Of course, the faces of the editors of the Chicago Tribune should not be the most ugly, and the face of Chiang Kai-shek, the president of the Kuomintang at that time, must have been ugly and ugly.
The day Truman won the election was November 2, 1948, and there were two things that upset Chiang Kai-shek that day, one was Chinese the liberation of Shenyang by the People's Liberation Army, and the other was that Dewey, the Republican candidate whom he had pinned high hopes on, actually lost the election to the unpopular Democratic candidate Truman.
Before the election, Chiang Kai-shek bet on Dewey and even secretly paid Him a sum of electoral funds, which some people joked about was the only time in history that China interfered in the internal affairs of the United States.
It is not what a mature politician should do to show support for one side before the results come out, especially if the other side is the United States that Chiang Kai-shek wants to rely on, and the reason why Chiang Kai-shek did this was related to the situation at that time on the one hand, and on the other hand, because of Chiang Kai-shek's personality.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="9" > "ruthless" Truman</h1>
Today, Truman is usually in the top ten on the list of the most popular U.S. presidents by various agencies, but before the 1948 election, Truman did not have such a high rating.
Truman was not welcomed, partly because his predecessor was too dazzling, the famous President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was elected president during the Great Depression, and then with drastic reforms to pull the United States out of the quagmire of economic crisis, led the United States to win World War II, and let the United States gradually replace Britain's world hegemony.
Due to the outbreak of World War II during his term, Roosevelt was the only president in U.S. history to serve four consecutive terms.
Roosevelt's fourth term of office began in 1945, and his running mate was Truman, who became vice president after Roosevelt's victory.
Unexpectedly, President Roosevelt, who had previously shown considerable vitality in the campaign, died suddenly of cerebral hemorrhage on April 12, 1945, and Truman, who had just been vice president for 82 days, had to ascend to the us presidency.
You know, at this time, the cooperation between Truman and the Roosevelt government had just begun, and many decisions of the Roosevelt administration were not known to Truman, including the famous Manhattan Project.
Another reason for Truman's unpopularity is that he is far inferior to Roosevelt in terms of origin, image, temperament, or ability to speak, and Truman is not like a president.
But the people who don't want to see Truman overlook the fact that Truman, this guy from a civilian background who went all the way to vice president, is a ruthless man.
Truman was not as dignified and gentle as Roosevelt, but on the contrary, he had a rough fierceness in him.
Truman was born into a small family of farmers in Missouri, spent the first dozen years of his life on a farm, and the turning point in his life came from World War I.
In 1917, U.S. President Wilson declared war on Germany, the United States officially joined the First World War, at that time Truman wanted to join the army, but he was a serious myopia, theoretically can not pass the enlistment physical examination, but Truman memorized the entire eye chart the day before, so as to successfully pass the physical examination.
During World War I, Truman went to France to command a group of artillerymen, and during this combat experience in France, Truman did not actually have any magic in the war, but there was one thing: no matter what kind of attack he faced from the enemy, Truman could organize a counterattack.
Truman served in the military
Truman's formal political career was in 1922, when he was elected to the Jackson County Courthouse in Missouri on behalf of the Democrats, lost his re-election bid in 1924, and ran again in 1926.
In 1934, Truman became a senator, in 1940 was re-elected, during World War II, Truman was responsible for managing the chaos, waste and fraud in the military, he developed a "common sense throttling measure" for the U.S. military, according to statistics, Truman's active work allowed the United States to save about $11 billion in World War II, which earned Truman a reputation.
In 1944, President Roosevelt was preparing to seek re-election again, but his running mate, Vice President Henry Wallace, was too liberal, and President Roosevelt decided to change his running mate, and Truman, who had supported Roosevelt's New Deal from the time he became a senator, became the right candidate.
No one expected that President Roosevelt's fourth term was only 82 days, and Truman was not ready to succeed him, Truman once said: "It feels like the moon, the stars and all the planets are going to fall on me." ”
Truman's life turned in World War I, the president of the United States at that time was the Democrat Woodrow Wilson, Truman in dealing with international issues is also biased toward Wilsonism, under Truman's United States further abandoned isolationism, actively involved in international affairs, the Marshall Plan to aid Europe is from his handwriting.
However, these policies of Truman began to annoy many people in the United States, liberalism, isolationism rose in the United States, the Democratic Party then lost the 1946 congressional election, many of the truman government's decisions were rejected by Congress, which made Truman look ugly, and this ugly look further deepened an impression: Truman is incompetent, Truman is not suitable for president, the next election, Truman will lose.
When the time came to 1948, many people decided that the Democratic Party had been in power for four consecutive terms, and it was time for the Republican Party to return to the White House, and in this general election, the Republican Party sent the governor of New York, Thomas Dewey.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="37" > public opinion, voice, and funding</h1>
Dewey, unlike Truman, was born into high society, had a doctorate (Truman was one of the few U.S. presidents without a college degree), and at first glance was an elite and decisive and capable person, and Dewey gained a reputation for fighting crime with thunderous means.
In fact, the 1948 showdown with Truman was not Dewey's first presidential campaign; in the 1940 election, Dewey had already represented the Republican Party in his bid for the presidency, but because his opponent Roosevelt was too powerful, Dewey did not succeed.
But more people believe that Dewey's loss to Roosevelt was mainly affected by the war, and in wartime, the Americans did not want to change the president, and that defeat did not mean that Dewey had any problems with his ability.
Now 4 years later, the situation has changed dramatically, competing with Dewey has become a hasty successor to Truman, many people in the United States are tired of the Democratic Party, Congress is also controlled by Republicans, and now, it seems that only one foot away from the door, Dewey can enter the White House and completely end the era of the Democratic Party.
The situation on Truman's side was very bad, some time before the election, Truman was actually kicked out of the list of Democratic candidates, because of Truman's poor speech ability and image, the Democratic Party once wanted to send Eisenhower, who gained considerable prestige in World War II, to participate in the election, but Eisenhower made it clear that he would not participate in the presidential election (but Eisenhower reneged on his promise 4 years later, he participated in the presidential election, but only represented the Republican Party).
Truman went through such a bumpy road to become a candidate, but Truman's troubles are more than that, compared to his well-funded opponent Dewey, Truman's campaign funds are stretched thin.
Due to the abundance of funds, Dewey could often give long speeches on the radio, while Truman's speeches were limited in length, and Truman himself was not good at speaking, and his tone did not change at all when he read the speech, without any agitation.
Dewey had plenty of money to advertise in the newspapers, which Truman could not reach, and Truman finally decided to abandon the expensive, long-winded campaign speeches over the radio and instead opted for a special way: to take the train to each city and speak directly to the local voters.
In stark contrast to Truman's shabbiness and Dewey's magnanimity, you might ask: Where did Dewey's money come from?
Dewey's campaign funds came mostly from the Eastern United States consortium, and Republican policies favored low taxes and small government, which was more favorable to the wealthy class.
However, a small part of Dewey's campaign funds came from the mysterious East, which was provided by the Chiang Kai-shek clique, which some people jokingly claimed: This is the only time in history that the mysterious forces of the East have interfered in the internal affairs of the United States.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="51" > Chiang Kai-shek: Forever allied with the strong</h1>
Chiang Kai-shek was born into a family of salt merchants in Zhejiang, a well-to-do family, but it was far from being rich and noble.
Jiang went to Japan to study military affairs, participated in the anti-Qing and anti-Yuan revolutions, and once idly associated with gang members in Shanghai, and even did business and stocks.
After the death of Mr. Zhongshan, in theory, Chiang's identity is far from being the heir, but through a series of operations, he allowed himself to undergo a series of reversals in his identity in just a few months, becoming the supreme ruler of the Kuomintang.
This series of operations is mainly divided into two parts: first, with the influence of Soviet advisers, to obtain the highest military leadership, and second, to marry Song Meiling and unite with the four major families.
The first thing is more complicated, I will not go into detail here, but here I will mainly talk about Chiang Kai-shek's marriage and the formation of the four major family groups.
The person who proposed the marriage between Chiang Kai-shek and Soong Mei-ling was Song Yiling, the eldest sister of the Soong family, who had a clear purpose, combined the wealth, fame, and social status of the Soong family with the military resources in Chiang Kai-shek's hands, and further helped Chiang Kai-shek obtain political resources.
At this time, although Chiang Kai-shek temporarily gained the support of the army, his foundation was still shallow, and Chiang Kai-shek was eager to unite with the Song family.
Marrying Soong Mei-ling means that the wealth and social resources of the Soong family can be obtained, the wealth resources of the Kong family (the eldest sister of the Soong family, Song Xialing, is the wife of the hugely rich Kong Xiangxi), coupled with the close relationship between Chiang Kai-shek and the Chen family (the revolutionary Chen Qimei has the grace of knowing Chiang Kai-shek, and Chen Lifu's chen Guofu brothers and Chiang Kai-shek are also close friends), Chiang Kai-shek has won the full support of the chaebols in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and sat firmly on the throne of the Leader of the Kuomintang.
This is Chiang Kai-shek's life creed: always ally with the strong.
At home, Chiang Kai-shek chose to ally with the group of people with the most social resources (the Jiangsu and Zhejiang chaebols led by the four major families), and of course in international affairs, he also chose to ally with the strongest country, which is undoubtedly the United States.
During the War of Resistance Against Japan, as the United States declared war on Japan, Chiang Kai-shek cooperated deeply with the US military, and US warplanes took off and landed at Chinese airports; of course, the Kuomintang army also received a considerable amount of AMERICAN aid.
Some of the many U.S. aid to the Kuomintang came from President Truman, but the inefficiency and corruption of the various Departments of the Kuomintang made Truman disappointed with Chiang Kai-shek.
Truman was particularly unhappy about the corruption of U.S. aid by Nationalist officials, and later wrote in his memoirs: "They [referring to the kuomintang top brass] should all go to jail." ”
Chiang Kai-shek's relationship with Truman was gradually deteriorating, and just as the U.S. election approached, all polling agencies predicted that Dewey would win a major victory over Truman.
Chiang Kai-shek just happened to push the boat along the water, took the initiative to show goodwill to Dewey, who had not yet become president, and even provided Dewey with a campaign fund.
Chiang Kai-shek took the initiative to show favor to Dewey, although there are reasons for his feud with Truman, but the main reason is that Dewey's voice is higher, and union with the strong is Chiang Kai-shek's eternal code of conduct, and this code has also brought him unlimited benefits, but what Chiang Kai-shek never expected was that this time, he actually miscalculated, and he and the people who had high hopes for him were defeated by the so-called "weak".
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="69" > Truman's headwind flip</h1>
Before the election, most Americans focused on the image and temperament and speech ability of Truman, who came from the bottom, but ignored the fierceness of the bottom people that Came with Truman.
This time, "Farmer" Truman is going to compete with the elite Dewey in the way of a farmer.
Due to financial problems, Truman's radio speech time is not as long as Dewey's, in fact, Truman is not good at broadcasting speech, even if the length is the same, if through the way of radio speech, Truman is not Dewey's opponent.
So Truman chose to change the game, and he was going to have a "train" campaign. From September to November 1948, Truman embarked on an unprecedented "general election expedition."
He took the train from the East Coast to the West Coast and from the West Coast back to the East Coast, stopping in each city, no matter how big or small, and when the train arrived, he got off the train and gave a speech to the local people.
In fact, it is incomplete to say that Truman's talent is poor, and Truman's eloquence is indeed not very good when he reads the prepared speech, but if Truman is allowed to improvise, Truman's eloquence is quite good.
Truman, who stayed at each voter point, explained his philosophy of governance to the voters in a very easy-going tone, and he spoke in a very casual way, when introducing his wife and daughter, Truman pointed to his wife and said, "This is my boss," and then pointed to his daughter and said: "This is my boss's boss.", similar words made the voters laugh and invisibly pulled into the relationship between themselves and the voters.
Truman sometimes even said something more vulgar, and Dewey and the mainstream elite looked down on him, but many voters liked Truman's way of speaking.
After completing the "election expedition", although the pollsters' predictions still showed that Dewey would defeat Truman, many of the people who followed Truman in the train speech began to believe that Truman could defeat Dewey, because they saw whereVer Truman went, and they were welcomed by the voters with an almost fanatical welcome.
Before the election results were announced, the mainstream elite, including Dewey himself, still believed that Dewey was bound to win, and the Republican Party began to discuss dewey's administrative measures after his election, and Dewey also said to his wife in a showy tone: "Soon, you will live with the president of the United States." ”
The result of the election surprised everyone, Truman won 303 electoral votes, Dewey only won 189, and Truman won a big victory over Dewey to win re-election, which is the opposite of the previous poll results.
When the results came out, the Republican elite was stunned, and Dewey's wife joked: "You say I'm going to live with the president of the United States right away, so now I'm going to find Truman, or will I let Truman come to me?" ”
Truman said sarcastically to the organizations that believed Dewey would win: "When you are ready to bury a Democrat, please first make sure he is dead." ”
The main reason why the poll results made such a big mistake was that the questionnaire at that time was rarely distributed to rural voters, so the poll was distorted, and Truman's train speech allowed him to gain widespread support from farmers in the Midwest, and Truman also relied on this to win a number of key swing states.
Perhaps Truman did not know that years later, another guy who was not favored by the mainstream elite and whose campaign money was far less than his opponents, also won the US election in a similar way by winning the Midwest swing state, except that he was from the Republican Party, his name was Trump, and he was also a rude guy.
Truman's election dashed chiang kai-shek's hopes of increasing support for himself after Dewey's election, and the Kmt's defeat on the mainland was irreversible.
Chiang's failure is similar to dewey's reasons, which he pinned high hopes on, and is overly superstitious about the power of the elite.
They all believe that as long as they have the support of the elite and the resources in the hands of the elite, they can do everything, and they all arrogantly believe that the strength at the bottom is not enough to hang their teeth.
But the failures of Chiang Kai-shek and Dewey have proved a truth: the strength at the bottom is not weak, on the contrary, it is a tenacious force, a stable force, a lasting force.
The reason why the power at the bottom appears weak is only because it is too scattered, and once someone gathers it, this power will be destroyed and invincible.