Corn is still falling, and what is even more outrageous is that the individual quotations in North China and Shandong have fallen below 1.1 yuan/jin, and the lowest is close to 1 yuan/jin.
There is no other reason for the decline, it is just that the volume is constantly rising.
For example, the amount of Shandong is not going down, originally two days ago to the number of trucks dropped from more than 1,000 to less than 1,000, down to more than 600 when it rose again, and jumped to more than 900, so the decline is not a new thing.
This also shows a problem, that is, the mentality of the corn market is really bad, there are not a few people who panic to produce grain, and the enthusiasm for finding a car to transport grain is very high.
And the auction of the grain reserves in China also confirms this.
Almost all the corn sold at auction was unauctioned, but the transaction rate of bidding purchases was frequently high, indicating that the market's buying and selling mentality has been unbalanced, and they are actively selling grain by selling more and buying less.
Yesterday we just mentioned that if corn falls like this again, it cannot be ruled out that the official will have to take further action, and in fact, the crazy decline of corn has attracted the attention of the official, and has already taken action, just waiting for the effect to ferment.
This also means that the "bottom" of corn is already obvious.
The first is the bottom of the policy.
As we all know, this year's policy shines in the Northeast, and the successive increases in reserves have held up the Northeast corn, but it is impossible to manage only the Northeast, regardless of North China, but the problems faced by North China are more complicated, so the effect should be slower.
Just like at the beginning of the year, when the Northeast just started to increase reserves, the corn market did not react immediately, and even fell, until the increase in reserves continued to ferment, and the defeat of Northeast corn was reversed.
Therefore, the same is true for North China and Shandong.
The second is the bottom of the market.
Although corn is still in the downward channel, we have analyzed that from the perspective of the market, the purchase and sale are nearing the end, and the market surplus grain has bottomed out, which is good for corn.
Because as the food source shifts to the trading entity, the trading entity has greater resilience to pressure, so the market turbulence will also decrease.
Therefore, the current turmoil is more due to mood and mentality fluctuations, but from the perspective of various market entities, it is no longer supported that corn continues to fall sharply.
Therefore, we believe that although corn is still falling, it is already at a juncture of change, and it may be about to usher in a change.
First, the number of holidays has been reduced.
Approaching the May Day holiday, although the impact of the holiday on corn is far less than that of the pig market, but the corn that has fallen for so long has shown fatigue, and it is expected that with the arrival of the holiday, there will be a temporary respite.
The relevant logistics information also shows that the phenomenon of finding cars and delivering goods at the grassroots level has begun to ease in recent days.
But the post-holiday is still unknown, so it is only a phased market.
The second is weather changes.
Approaching May Day, the weather is going to be powerful again, especially the recent rainy weather in many places in Hebei, and even snowfall in some areas, which is rare, which will also have a certain impact on the amount of corn.
In Shandong, the weather has not changed much recently, but in the last few days of the May Day holiday, it has also begun to usher in rain.
We'll see.
In terms of trend, sentiment will not always be at a high level, and the day when Shandong will return to weather resistance is not far off.
But even with these variables, this does not mean that the corn market will be better in May, as the pressure on the corn market will remain high in May.
First, imports are still not low.
Although the relevant restrictions on corn in the bonded area have been carried out before, and the pressure on imported corn has been reduced, the price of imported corn is very low, and the comprehensive cost is only more than 2,000 yuan/ton, which is still a threat to the domestic market.
Secondly, in addition to imported corn, imported sorghum is expected to arrive in Hong Kong in the second quarter, which will also further put pressure on the domestic corn market.
Second, demand is still difficult to revive.
The recent heavy rains in the south have had a certain impact on the pig market, but at the same time increased the risk, at least in the short term, pig prices have not yet been fully reversed, and it is expected that demand will remain difficult for a period of time.
Third, the focus of the market has shifted.
After entering May, the wheat harvest is about to begin, and the market's focus has also shifted to wheat, and the focus on corn has weakened.
Therefore, the decline of corn in May may ease, but it is still basically in a state of grinding, and it is still difficult to rise.
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!