Yesterday we just mentioned that wheat has finally shown signs of stabilizing recently, but the market is still very worried, because it has just stabilized not long ago, and then it has started to fall twice, and the decline is fierce.
So this time the market has become very cautious.
At present, the controversy over wheat mainly focuses on two aspects:
One is the abundant harvest of new wheat.
The point of contention is the weather.
But there's really nothing to fight about, because the weather is God's business, and no one can decide.
At present, a bumper crop of new wheat is expected, but this is in the absence of extreme weather. However, the weather in Hebei has changed quite a lot in the past two days, and some areas of Hebei have ushered in a big cooling, and it is rain and snow, which is very rare, which also increases the interference of the weather again, and casts a layer of fog on the bumper yield of wheat.
It is no wonder that the market is so volatile, because the wheat market is really very fragile, or the supply and demand of wheat are not so terrible, at least not to let wheat fall like this.
The main reason for the current sharp decline in wheat is the centralized auction of policy grain, especially the later auction, which is almost crazy, which makes the supply surge, and of course the demand cannot be stopped.
However, once the auction stops in the later stage, if the new wheat relay is wrong, then there will be a gap in the market, and the price of wheat will rise.
This is the best example of this point when Henan suffered a bad rain last year.
On the other hand, under the strong bearish sentiment of wheat, flour enterprises have maintained a low inventory state, which is of course worry-free in the context of bumper yields.
However, once the situation changes, the willingness of flour enterprises to replenish the stock will increase immediately, which will also drive up wheat prices.
The second point of contention is over Chen Mai.
Affected by the late maturity period, the new wheat can not be put into use immediately after harvest, and a large amount of old wheat needs to be blended, and the old wheat at this time becomes fragrant, which is also an important opportunity for the market to be bullish on the old wheat.
But recently, Chen Mai has played a new trick, that is, some companies have begun to make appointments to purchase Chen Mai, and the price of the appointment is about 50 yuan/ton higher than the market at that time.
This suddenly made the market incomprehensible, which play is this?
In fact, this is also a move to balance the risk in the context of the uncertain production situation of new wheat and the unpredictable market.
This says two things:
First, Chen Mai is in demand.
This point is also expected by the company, no matter how high or low the price of wheat is listed, it is not important, the important thing is that Chen Mai is needed to support the field at this time.
The second is that Chen Mai can't make up his mind.
The reason for the purchase at a limited price is that the grain source can be locked in advance, and the risk becomes controllable after the price limit. So it's a good way for a business to balance the pros and cons.
Let's go back to the current wheat market.
Recently, wheat has begun to stabilize, and even some have begun to rise, mainly for several reasons:
First, the policy wheat auction has shrunk.
However, there are still doubts about this point, on the one hand, the early auction is too ruthless, and the lower the auction, the higher the unsuccessful auction, and it is not a matter to keep shooting, and the market also needs to slow down.
On the other hand, it is also approaching the May Day holiday, and there are only 3 days of delivery this week, so the reduction is inevitable.
However, it is not known whether it will continue to increase after May Day.
Second, the handover of the new and old has gradually begun.
Time can't be counted, after the May Day holiday, the beginning of May will be almost over, which means that after the holiday, Hubei early-maturing wheat will appear in a week at most.
It's a very tight time.
Fresh wheat is also facing a convergence problem, and at present, the new and old handover coincides around 1.3 yuan/catty, and the space for wheat to fall again has become limited. Even if it goes down, it is more likely to be around 1.3 yuan.
Third, weather disturbances have increased significantly.
Although the new wheat harvest is expected to be larger, but one thing drops one thing, Hebei has changed the weather, so that the wheat "crisis" is immediately put on the agenda, after all, no one can predict the weather.
Therefore, whether in terms of emotion or market conditions, wheat has begun to stop, and it is expected that the turbulence will become smaller after the holiday, until the new wheat is officially harvested, and it will be a new plot.
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!