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Recently, some claims that "overcapacity has hit the world market" in China's emerging fields have been repeatedly exaggerated by some countries in the United States and the West in an attempt to influence the global view of China's economy.
However, the fact is that in the environment of a globalized market economy, the supply and demand of products is a process of dynamic equilibrium. Take new energy products as an example, in the medium and long term, the demand for new energy products in various countries will remain strong, and the new energy products in the global market are not "surplus", but are still in short supply.
Industry insiders said that in some emerging industries such as solar photovoltaic panels, where technology updates and iterations are fast, it is a normal short-term phenomenon for the overall capacity utilization rate to occasionally be low, but it will soon be eliminated with factors such as the leveling of information and the decision-making of market participants. For example, the advanced production capacity of a few years ago may become obsolete and surplus after a few years, but at the same time, the products produced by the most advanced production capacity are often in short supply.
Jia Shaoqian, Chairman of Hisense Group: The balance between supply and demand is dynamic. It may be 1.2:1 in a period and 0.8:1 in a period. But from the perspective of the long-term trend, it is certain to achieve a pattern that will eventually approach 1:1.
Li Dawei, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission: (The United States and the West) confuse the short-term phenomenon of overcapacity in the market economy with the medium- and long-term phenomenon (caused by market failure). Blaming a country for overcapacity as a negative word is, in my opinion, quite a fallacy.
Experts said that far from being "surplus", there is still a shortage of new energy products in the global market. According to the International Energy Agency, the global demand for new energy vehicles will reach 45 million in 2030, more than three times the global production in 2023, while in terms of photovoltaics, the global demand for new installed capacity will reach 820 GW, about four times that of 2022. From the perspective of future global demand potential, not only in China, but also in the world, the supply of such products is insufficient.
Jin Ruiting, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission: The capacity utilization rate of the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and the new energy automobile manufacturing industry, which are closely related to the new energy field, is currently roughly 77% and 75% respectively, which is close to the capacity utilization rate of the mainland manufacturing industry of 75% in the same period, so there is no overcapacity. It can be said that the current advantageous production capacity in the field of new energy is far from meeting the market demand.
Cui Fan, Professor, University of International Business and Economics: It is precisely because we see the huge space for future demand, and at the same time, we see that China's industrial chain is developing very rapidly. Therefore, for the purpose of curbing China's competitiveness in this regard, such arguments have been put forward.
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Editor: Zhang Jingye