Regarding the Biden administration's plan to impose new tariffs on China, although the US side is very loud and wants to impose tariffs on Chinese products by three or four times at every turn, it is certain that this will have an impact on China, but it should only be on a small scale. #军史观察团#
Take China's electric vehicles, which are targeted by the Biden administration, as an example, China's exports to the United States last year were more than 300 million US dollars. It may not sound like it is less, but compared with the $7.4 billion that the EU exported to the United States that year, it is indeed not that much. Is the U.S. market important for China? That's yes, but for China's EV exports, the answer is obvious.
In the past nine years, China's production and sales of electric vehicles have ranked first in the world. Especially last year, this proportion was more than 60%, the global sales crown changed hands, and BYD became famous. The United States can say that there is competition between China and the United States for electric vehicles, but it is unrealistic to say that the Chinese electric vehicle industry will be suppressed by imposing tariffs.
The reason why China's electric vehicles are exported to the United States is small, in the final analysis, is that the United States has long given Chinese electric vehicles a tariff fortress. European cars entering the United States are subject to a 2.5% tariff, but Chinese cars are subject to a 27.5% tariff. The gap is so obvious that whether Biden raises tariffs to 102.5% or not, Americans are only likely to give priority to European cars due to cost considerations.
If the United States only gives a heavy hand to China's electric vehicles, it will not have much impact on China and the United States.
What really has an impact on both China and the United States is actually the production equipment and other products of solar panel components. The reason is simple, China's position in the global clean energy supply chain is irreplaceable, and American photovoltaic products are inseparable from these Chinese products. Interestingly, due to the opposition of relevant US companies, it is said that the Biden administration has decided to exempt these products.
This makes the US media think that the Biden administration's move is more symbolic, because the Biden administration's target happened to avoid Chinese products that are not in high demand from American consumers.
Biden's purpose in using tariff hype at this time should be the same as Trump's recent threat to impose tariffs on all Chinese products if he is elected, all in order to create a topic to attract votes in the US election. The difference is that the Biden administration is still actively engaged in dialogue with China, so it is not as aggressive as Trump has shown, and it can be regarded as leaving a way out for itself.
However, China did say that it would take measures to respond to the US tariff hype. For some of Biden's aides, they are very bottomless. For example, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has recently tried many times to implement relevant measures without affecting the overall situation of Sino-US relations.
Yellen has tried to explain that our target is "narrow" and that there is no need for China to react strongly. At the same time, she repeated the same old tune, indicating that the United States has thought about decoupling from China, and China should not "retaliate".
At first glance, the Biden administration's targeting of Chinese products seems to be the result of weighing the pros and cons, but it is unrealistic for the United States to suppress Chinese products on the one hand and not want China to take measures to respond on the other. Just because it doesn't have much impact on China doesn't mean the United States is doing it right.
As long as the United States takes action, there will certainly be a reaction from the Chinese side. But we speculate that perhaps there won't be much of a reaction. China's climate envoy is still visiting the United States, and communication between China and the United States at all levels has not been interrupted, and the two sides are trying to create conditions for continued cooperation in areas where they can cooperate.
As far as the United States imposes new tariffs on China, the United States will lose the most from China's electric vehicles and other high-quality products, and it is likely that the largest losses will be American companies and people. In 2023, Ford Motor is expected to lose more than $60,000 for every electric car sold. The U.S. refusal to cooperate with China for a win-win situation will only ensure U.S. jobs in the short term, but in the medium and long term, it will only make U.S. industrial transformation more distant.
Yellen fears that China will "retaliate," but there is no need for it. A few days ago, in response to a relevant question, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the US imposition of tariffs on China violates WTO rules. China can ask the WTO to intervene and directly expose the double standards of the United States.
Rather than grasping the so-called problem of overcapacity, the United States should face up to its own shortcomings. Even Yellen has previously admitted that the United States has only given a large number of subsidies to related industries, and in this case, American products are not comparable to Chinese products.
In short, whether it is China's highest-level visit to Europe or the recent visit of the South Korean foreign minister to China, these countries have all talked about their desire to strengthen cooperation with China. If the United States pushes China away again and again, in the end, the United States will lose the most.