As part of his upcoming visit to China, Putin will travel to Harbin to attend the opening ceremony of the 8th China-Russia Expo and the 3rd China-Russia Forum on Local Cooperation. It can be said that such an itinerary is enough to show that strengthening bilateral cooperation between China and Russia should be one of the important topics that the Chinese and Russian leaders will discuss. #军史观察团#
In fact, on the day that the Chinese side announced Putin's visit to China, the Croatian side also used seven tones, pointing out that during the visit, the Chinese and Russian leaders will determine the direction of "further development of cooperation" and discuss issues of the most practical significance.
It can also be seen from Putin's recent appointment of economic experts as Russia's defense minister that economic display is the next focus of Russia's development. Based on the trade volume of more than $240 billion between China and Russia that hit a new high last year, Putin's promotion of strengthening economic and trade cooperation between Russia and China is undoubtedly of more practical significance.
According to the data, the trade volume between China and Russia in the first four months of this year increased by nearly 5% year-on-year, and China's imports to Russia increased by more than 10%. Although exports to Russia have declined, Sino-Russian cooperation in many fields has maintained a strong momentum.
Taking China's electric vehicle exports as an example, the top two electric vehicle sales in Russia in April this year were all Chinese brands. Compared with the United States and Europe in the past period of time competing for China's electric vehicles, the opening of the Russian market to Chinese automobiles undoubtedly reflects the pragmatic side of cooperation between the two sides.
In addition, there are many large-scale cooperation projects between China and Russia that are expected to be further promoted. The China-Russia-Kazakhstan gas pipeline project has even signed a road map, and as long as the price and other details are negotiated, the construction of the project is just around the corner.
Russia has repeatedly signaled to China that it wants to expand gas supplies to China. We speculate that this new channel is likely to be mentioned during Putin's visit to China.
Given that the United States has recently threatened to take action against China's financial industry in order to block normal trade cooperation between China and Russia, Putin may also push forward with the possibility of establishing a new settlement mechanism based on a framework such as the BRICS.
In addition to talking about cooperation, some hot issues should also be unavoidable. On the Ukraine issue, both China and Russia have their own established positions, and it is unlikely that the Russian side will test China on this issue. However, judging by the known information, the Russian side is in favor of French President Emmanuel Macron's previous proposal for a global ceasefire during the Olympics. During the previous visit to France by the highest level of the Chinese side, the Chinese and French leaders also agreed on this proposal. If China can play a role in this, Putin should not refuse.
At the same time, a meeting on Ukraine in Switzerland will be held in June. Although the Russian side has made it clear that it will not attend, this matter is not without a turn for the better.
At present, Russia and Ukraine are fighting fiercely in Donetsk and other places in eastern Ukraine. Recently, the Russian army suddenly launched a tentative offensive on Kharkiv, which is quite a new front. We can't say for sure that this is a precursor to a larger Russian offensive in the summer, but there are only two possibilities: first, Russia wants to break the stalemate with Ukraine, and second, Russia wants to force Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table.
Based on this mentality, if China had mediated it, Russia would not necessarily reconsider participating in the meeting on Ukraine in Switzerland.
It is not difficult to see that there is a lot of room for China and Russia to discuss whether it is Sino-Russian cooperation or hot issues, including the Ukraine issue. In this regard, the Kremlin even released the wind in advance, and in addition to signing a joint statement during Putin's visit to China, the leaders of China and Russia will also sign a number of bilateral documents.
Obviously, the United States is naturally not happy to see some substantive results that China and Russia will achieve.
At present, the United States does not seem to be as big as imagined for Putin's visit to China. In addition to the U.S. being cautious about imposing new tariffs on Chinese products, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also reiterated that she does not want to decouple from China before Putin's visit to China. This is in stark contrast to Blinken's harsh words at the end of his previous visit to China to take measures to prevent Sino-Russian cooperation.
This is not to say that the United States will not react, and if Yellen's topic is linked to Putin's visit to China, I am afraid it will be more threatening. If China and Russia further develop cooperation, the United States is likely to increase sanctions against China.
However, it can also be seen from Putin's firm first visit to China that Sino-Russian cooperation will not be affected by these murmurs or threats from the United States at all. If the US does take measures, China and Russia will only get closer to defend their common interests.