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FSD (Full Self-Drive), "Full Self-Drive". FSD is a fully self-driving solution that Tesla has developed for many years, with the goal of enabling driving without human intervention. Recently, Tesla has driven 1 billion miles with the help of its FSD software, and at the same time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on X that the difficulty of achieving universal self-driving is shocking, and Tesla's cumulative investment in the field of autonomous driving this year will exceed $10 billion.
Regarding the prospect of "full self-driving", Musk posted over the weekend that almost all cars will be self-driving in the future, and people will enter the car like they enter an elevator, and only 1% will be manually driven for entertainment, just like people now raise horses not to drive, but for equestrian sports.
The autonomous driving market is in a stage of rapid development, and with the continuous maturity of technology and the growth of market demand, autonomous driving technology has become a hot area in the automotive industry. Automakers and technology companies are investing heavily in R&D and innovation to meet consumer demand for autonomous vehicles. At the same time, the government's policy support and the gradual improvement of regulations have also provided a strong guarantee for the development of autonomous driving technology. It is expected that in the next few years, autonomous vehicles will gradually enter the market and play an important role in urban transportation, logistics and transportation.
-- The development of autonomous driving technology
According to the "Autonomous Driving 3.0 Era, Large Models Reshape the Intelligent Technology Route of Automobiles" released at the 2023 (7th) Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Annual Conference, the autonomous driving of mainland China has entered the 3.0 era.
The 1.0 era of autonomous driving is hardware-driven, mainly relying on lidar and artificial rules to provide autonomous driving solutions. The 2.0 era is software-driven, characterized by sensors outputting results separately and providing autonomous driving solutions with small models and less data. The 3.0 era is a data-driven era, which uses multi-modal sensors to jointly output results and provides autonomous driving solutions in the mode of large model big data.
From the perspective of the development route of autonomous driving technology, automotive driving automation can be divided into level 0 to level 5, corresponding to emergency assistance, partial driving assistance, combined automatic driving, conditional automatic driving, highly automated driving and full automatic driving. At present, China's L2 level assisted driving has the ability of large-scale mass production, and more and more new models are equipped with assisted driving, and L3 and L4 autonomous driving systems are also in the research and development and small-scale testing stage.
A number of car companies in mainland China have carried out L3 and even L4 autonomous driving road tests, and the technical competitiveness of companies such as Momenta and Huawei is still significantly ahead in the autonomous driving system. For Xiaomi, Xiaomi started a little slowly, and needs to continuously accumulate more data and improve algorithms, further promote the R&D and testing of L3 and L4 autonomous driving systems, and keep up with industry technology trends.
-- The penetration rate of autonomous driving is increasing year by year
At present, the global autonomous driving technology is not yet fully mature, with the improvement and upgrading of the Internet of Vehicles and Internet of Things technology, the penetration rate of autonomous driving in mainland China will also increase year by year, and it is expected that by 2030, the mainland automobile market will be dominated by conditional automation models, accounting for more than 50%. The increasing penetration rate of autonomous vehicles will drive the demand for automotive sensors, and the market size of MEMS sensors is expected to increase further.
According to the report of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, with the growth of people's demand for travel safety and efficiency and the progress of autonomous driving technology in environmental perception, decision-making planning and vehicle control, the commercialization and popularization of autonomous driving technology will continue to grow in the future, and the development prospects are broad. In the future, autonomous driving technology will achieve more breakthroughs and market applications, and continue to develop in a more efficient, safer and more intelligent direction.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2022, the penetration rate of new L2 passenger cars with combined driving assistance functions reached 34.9%, and it is expected that the penetration rate of L2 and above intelligent driving of passenger cars will reach 70% in 2025. Zhang Kai, chairman of Momo Zhixing, further predicts that by 2025, the proportion of urban NOA will reach 70%.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
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