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On April 24, at Tesla's 2024 Q1 earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk emphasized that "even if aliens kidnap me tomorrow, Tesla will solve the problem of autonomous driving", which fully demonstrates Tesla's determination to develop autonomous driving. In the past, Tesla's delivery volume in the first quarter was less than expected, and then there were online rumors to abandon the cheap electric car plan, in this context, Musk threw out a blockbuster "bomb": will release driverless taxi (Robotaxi) products on August 8.
Musk has predicted that in the future, the number of driverless vehicles will exceed that of human-driven vehicles, and if Tesla cannot achieve full self-driving, its "value is basically zero". Regarding the release of driverless taxi products, Musk commented that "robo-taxis will" kill "public transportation".
However, it is Xpeng Motors that "contradicts" Musk's prediction. On April 25, at the 2024 (18th) Beijing International Automobile Exhibition, Gu Hongdi, vice chairman and co-president of Xpeng Motors, said that robo-taxis will not become an important business for at least five years. Gu Hongdi said that if the robo-taxi becomes popular, it will have a revolutionary impact on transportation, "but to truly achieve full commercial operation." I think it will take more than 5 years. "At the moment, we don't have that in mind when we launch and plan our sales. ”
Looking back at the development of the autonomous driving industry from the "commercial operation time of robo-taxis":
- Autonomous driving is divided into levels
Autonomous driving is a higher stage in the development of intelligent driving, while unmanned driving is the highest level after fully automation. According to the classification standards for autonomous vehicles formulated by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) (according to the degree of takeover and application scenarios of autonomous driving for car control), autonomous driving can be divided into six levels: L0 to L5:
According to the above grading standards, L0 is no autonomous driving; L1-L4 is the corresponding driving behavior completed by the system in a limited scenario, and only when the autonomous driving reaches L5 level, can fully automated driving be realized, and there is no need for humans to take over under any circumstances, that is, "unmanned" in the true sense. In addition, Level 4 autonomous driving is also "unmanned" as long as it is applicable to the scenario specified by the system, so it can be said that L4 is equivalent to L5 in limited scenarios.
-- Autonomous driving will become an important development direction for future transportation
Autonomous driving technology, as one of the important applications in the field of artificial intelligence, is gradually entering our lives and becoming an important development direction of future transportation, playing an important role in the improvement of traffic safety, the optimization of traffic efficiency and the selection of travel modes. Autonomous driving has already been used in a variety of fields, such as public transportation, taxis, logistics and distribution, and urban infrastructure. In the future, with the further development of technology and the improvement of regulations, it is expected that more application scenarios will emerge.
-- The penetration rate of autonomous driving is increasing year by year
At present, the global autonomous driving technology is not yet fully mature, with the improvement and upgrading of the Internet of Vehicles and Internet of Things technology, the penetration rate of autonomous driving in mainland China will also increase year by year, and it is expected that by 2030, the mainland automobile market will be dominated by conditional automation models, accounting for more than 50%. The increasing penetration rate of autonomous vehicles will drive the demand for automotive sensors, and the market size of MEMS sensors is expected to increase further.
According to the analysis of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, China's vast market, the public's tolerance for autonomous driving, and a good policy environment are conducive to the commercialization of driverless vehicles, and with the continuous progress of technology, their safety performance will be further improved. In the future, unmanned driving will gradually become popular and become an important part of the intelligent transportation system, and at the same time, unmanned driving will also be integrated with other means of transportation to create an unmanned transportation system integrating water, land and air, and help the construction of a "transportation power".
Ji Xuehong, director and professor of the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, believes that based on the current industrial development trend and the guidance of relevant national policies, the penetration rate of driverless taxis (L4 level) is expected to reach about 20% by 2030.
Li Jingfeng, vice president of T3 Mobility, believes that in the next 5-10 years, it may even be faster, and autonomous driving will be implemented on a large scale. Our overall judgment is that autonomous driving will play a leading role, and fully unmanned L4 Robotaxi is an irreversible trend in the future development of online car-hailing.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "China Driverless Vehicle (Autonomous Vehicle) Industry Development Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
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