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In September 2020, Tesla officially released the innovative product of 4680 large cylindrical battery, with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 80mm. Tesla claims that the unit capacity of the 4680 battery is 5 times higher than that of the 2170 battery, and the cost is further optimized. As a result, the cylindrical battery has been continuously upgraded with a diameter of 18mm, 21mm and now 46mm, showing a trend of large-scale.
Currently, Tesla's 4680 battery is only used in Cybertruck pickup models. At the end of March this year, Tesla announced that it had ushered in a new milestone of 4680 production capacity, that is, the production of 4680 batteries per week is enough to make 1,000 cyber trucks, following the realization of 5GWh of battery production capacity per year in October 2023.
However, analysts generally agree that Tesla's 4680 battery project is not going well, but it would be great if Tesla could go from a company that doesn't make batteries at all to a manufacturer that produces batteries in large quantities at a lower cost than its competitors in five years.
On April 24, Tesla's financial report for the first quarter of 2024 was released, which announced the latest progress of the 4680 battery project. Lars Moravy, Tesla's vice president of vehicle engineering, said: "The production of 4680 battery cells has increased by about 18% to 20% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, exceeding the demand for Cybertruck, which is about 7 gigawatt hours per year that we posted on social media X. With the acceleration of the third and fourth production lines in Phase 1, we expect battery production throughout the second quarter to be ahead of Cybertruck demand, while maintaining multiple weeks of battery inventory to ensure that battery capacity will be ahead of Cybertruck's ramp-up. As we ramp up capacity, the cost of 4680 cells (COGS) is rapidly decreasing on a weekly basis, driven by increased throughput and increased production across the line. ”
However, Moravy also revealed an important message, which is that Tesla believes that the 4680 batteries they produce will beat the supplier's nickel-based batteries in terms of cost by the end of the year. The term "nickel-based battery" here refers specifically to batteries that do not contain lithium iron phosphate (LFP), which Tesla does not currently manufacture, but uses in most models. Nickel-based batteries have a higher energy density and are suitable for electric vehicles with a longer range.
——46 series large cylindrical battery takes into account both performance and economy
The 46mm diameter cylindrical battery is one of the priority solutions to take into account both performance and economy under the current process level, mainly due to the overall performance and cost of the battery pack: the continuous increase in size will improve the safety and cycle life risk of the battery, and from the diameter of 46mm, the battery life of the whole vehicle begins to decline, and the marginal benefit of cost reduction decreases.
In terms of height, the 46 series large cylindrical battery has a variety of designs such as 80/95/120mm. Since the height change does not affect the radial heat dissipation of cylindrical cells, battery companies will flexibly design products according to customer needs.
-- Tesla entered the game first, and domestic and foreign companies quickly followed
Large cylindrical batteries have the characteristics of high energy density, strong fast charging, high safety, and long life, which make them highly compatible with the needs of mid-to-high-end passenger cars for long battery life and ultra-fast charging. In the electric vehicle market, Tesla took the lead in introducing large cylindrical batteries, and in September 2022, the company's Berlin plant officially delivered the Model Y model equipped with a 4680 battery. In June 2023, the cumulative production of 4680 battery cells at the company's Texas plant exceeded 10 million units (corresponding to about 12,000 Model Ys). According to incomplete statistics, Tesla's planned production capacity of 4680 batteries exceeds 200GWh.
According to incomplete statistics, as of the first half of 2023, the global large cylindrical battery production capacity planning has reached 494GWh, and in 2023, domestic EVE is expected to take the lead in mass production, and overseas Tesla 4680 battery production capacity is expected to further climb. From this point of view, the medium and long-term development trend of 46 series large cylindrical batteries is clear.
According to the report of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the production capacity of 4680 large cylindrical batteries continues to climb, and the pre-nickel-plated steel shell has become a key structural material, which is expected to accelerate penetration. According to data forecasts, by 2025, nearly 500GWh of 46 series large cylindrical batteries will be put into production, and about 1,000 tons of pre-nickel plating will be required for a single GWh, and about 500,000 tons of pre-nickel plating materials will be required in the field of power batteries.
Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of Yiwei Economic Research Institute and president of China Battery Industry Research Institute, believes that the large cylindrical battery is 5-6 times larger than the small cylindrical battery, and the system integration difficulty is relatively low, and the integration efficiency will be higher. In the future, large cylindrical batteries can be widely used in mid-to-high-end models. Large cylindrical batteries will definitely grow in the market share of electric vehicles and energy storage in the future.
Huatai Securities Research Report pointed out that it is estimated that the global installed capacity of large cylindrical batteries is expected to reach 429GWh in 2027, corresponding to a market size of 214.48 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 110.7% from 2023 to 2027; It is estimated that the global installed capacity of large cylindrical household storage batteries will reach 21.7GWh in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 168% from 2023 to 2027.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report of China's Power Lithium Battery Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
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