Industry is the concrete manifestation of the transformation of productive forces. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "Scientific and technological innovation can give birth to new industries, new models and new kinetic energy, and is the core element of the development of new quality productivity. The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year proposed: "It is necessary to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to promote new industries, new models and new kinetic energy with disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and develop new quality productive forces." "How to understand new industries, new models, and new kinetic energy, and how to promote the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation? Today's observation edition focuses on this theme.
-- The editor
Future Industry Outlook (People's Observation)
Shi Danqu Shenning
The future industry is a forward-looking industry driven by cutting-edge technology, which is currently in the stage of gestation and germination or the early stage of industrialization, and has significant strategic, leading, disruptive and uncertain prospects. The future industry represents the long-term development direction of science and technology and industry, and can form an important support and huge driving role for the national economy after the development is mature and the industrial transformation is realized. Driven by a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, global disruptive scientific and technological innovation achievements are emerging, and future industries have become a key strategic area for major countries in the world. At the 2014 Central Economic Work Conference, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that "explore the direction of future industrial development". At this year's National People's Congress and the National People's Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping further emphasized the "advanced layout and construction of future industries". In-depth study of the key areas of the mainland's future industrial development and vigorous development of future industries are the inevitable requirements for speeding up the cultivation and development of new-quality productive forces, seizing the commanding heights of international competition, and promoting Chinese-style modernization.
Research and grasp the direction and focus of the future industry
There are many directions for future industrial development. The "14th Five-Year Plan" outline proposes: "In the fields of cutting-edge technology and industrial transformation such as brain-like intelligence, quantum information, gene technology, future networks, deep-sea aerospace development, hydrogen energy and energy storage, organize and implement future industry incubation and acceleration plans, and plan to lay out a number of future industries." The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year proposed: "Open up new tracks for future industries such as quantum and life sciences". In January this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of Future Industries", which proposed: "Focus on promoting the development of industries in the six directions of future manufacturing, future information, future materials, future energy, future space and future health." "Combining these fields, combined with global scientific and technological innovation, industrial development trends and the mainland's own development advantages, we can study and grasp the direction and focus of the future industry from the following aspects.
The development of the AI industry focuses on promoting the development of the real economy and generative artificial intelligence (AIGC). Artificial intelligence is a strategic technology leading this round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and it has a strong "head goose" effect. In recent years, mainland artificial intelligence technology has made great progress, and its application in security, finance and other fields is relatively mature. In the real economy such as agriculture and manufacturing, the application of artificial intelligence is still in its infancy, and a mature business model has not yet been born, which also means that artificial intelligence has great potential in promoting the development of the real economy. In the manufacturing industry, artificial intelligence is gradually being integrated into product design, production, sales, after-sales service and other links, and the technological maturity is constantly improving. We must deeply grasp the characteristics of the development of the new generation of artificial intelligence, and strengthen the integration of artificial intelligence and industrial development. Generative AI is an important direction in the development of artificial intelligence in recent years, mainly through data mining to find patterns and appropriate generalization, so as to generate relevant text, images, audio and other content. The large language model represented by ChatGPT is one of the directions for the commercial application of generative AI. In recent years, with the continuous breakthroughs in the construction of digital infrastructure, digital software design, and digital technology innovation and application, the application scenarios of generative AI have covered many fields such as media, e-commerce, film and television, entertainment, education, and finance, which will promote the rapid development of related industries. Overall, there is a growing demand for AI in all walks of life. Accelerating the layout and development of the AI industry with the focus on promoting the development of the real economy and generative AI can inject new impetus into economic and social development.
Focus on collaborative robots and humanoid robots to develop high-end robot industry. The robot is known as the "pearl at the top of the manufacturing crown", and its R&D, manufacturing and application are important symbols to measure the level of scientific and technological innovation and high-end manufacturing in a country. At present, the vigorous development of the robot industry, especially the research and development and application of industrial robots and service robots, is greatly changing the production and lifestyle of human beings. Among them, collaborative robots working side by side with human operators are an important direction for the development of industrial robots, which can promote small and medium-sized enterprises to quickly achieve automation. Compared with traditional industrial robots, collaborative robots have the advantages of lightweight, high safety, and strong environmental adaptability. With the popularization and popularization of 5G network, its low latency and high reliability will give cobots more perfect interaction capabilities, and through deep integration with new technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, cobots will have more powerful analysis and data processing capabilities, and their performance will be further optimized. Humanoid robot is a new track in the service robot industry, which integrates advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and new materials, and is expected to become the next generation of human-computer interaction terminals after computers and smart phones. With the accelerated development of artificial intelligence, humanoid robots are achieving major breakthroughs in algorithm training, perception capabilities, and human-computer interaction. Some international technology companies are optimistic about the future of the humanoid robot industry, and have laid out the humanoid robot industry in the form of self-research or investment to promote the large-scale commercial application of humanoid robots.
Take quantum cloud as a breakthrough to develop the quantum computing industry. Computing power is a new type of productivity in the era of digital economy, and quantum computing can bring a leap forward in computing power. At present, China's quantum computing technology is at the forefront of the world, but it has not yet appeared mature application. According to the existing development trend, quantum cloud is the most likely application field for quantum computing. Quantum cloud is to use a quantum computer to replace traditional supercomputers or data center servers, and participate in cloud computing through cloud algorithms and supporting facilities. Compared with traditional computers, quantum cloud can drive the exponential expansion and explosive growth of computing power. In recent years, some of the world's technology companies have made layouts in the field of quantum cloud computing, promoting the acceleration of quantum cloud from the laboratory to maturity. At present, the application field of quantum cloud is constantly expanding. For some traditional industries, such as chemical industry, energy, etc., the R&D process has faced a lot of computing pressure, and the application of quantum cloud helps to alleviate this pressure, and for those scientific and technological fields with high computing power requirements, such as biopharmaceutical, digital security, artificial intelligence, encryption algorithm decipherment, etc., quantum cloud is expected to carry out targeted scenario applications.
Use non-fungible tokens (NFTs) as the starting point to develop the metaverse industry. The metaverse is an immersive interconnected space for the integration of the digital and physical worlds, a future industry for the integrated innovation and application of a new generation of information technology, and an advanced form of the integration of the digital economy and the real economy. At present, the global metaverse industry is evolving at an accelerated pace, among which NFT is crucial. It is a unique and non-interchangeable unit of data that represents ownership of related digital assets, such as images, music, or videos, and is therefore used as a digital title certificate. In the metaverse, NFTs can represent various assets in the digital world, such as digital items, online characters, avatar designs, digital appearances, and more. Every property and monetary transaction involving NFTs is fully recorded in the blockchain smart contract, helping to prevent moral hazard and information asymmetry. With the help of new technologies such as NFTs, the future business applications of the metaverse industry can cover social, entertainment, gaming, fitness, work, education, and other fields, involving all aspects of people's daily lives. The digital world can present a variety of business opportunities in the physical world, and can even reach wider boundaries and larger scales than in the physical world.
Accelerate the layout and construction of future industries
In the future, the development of the industry has broad prospects, strong driving role, and strong industrial empowerment ability, but there are also problems such as great uncertainty and market failure. To accelerate the development of future industries and cultivate new quality productivity, it is necessary to increase support and make overall plans to play a good "first move".
Concentrate on creating disruptive industrial technologies. Disruptive industrial technology is related to the success or failure of future industries. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen scientific and technological innovation, especially original and disruptive scientific and technological innovation. Support enterprises with the ability and conditions to build new research and development institutions with universities and research institutes, build scientific and technological research and development platforms, scientific and technological achievements industrialization platforms, etc., and strengthen the integration and innovation of industry, university, research and application, and large and small enterprises. Build a future industrial innovation consortium, and establish a new integrated organization model of mutual integration and symbiosis, division of labor and cooperation, and benefit sharing in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Promote cross-domain technology cross-integration and innovation, accelerate disruptive technology breakthroughs, and create a source of original technology. At the same time, we will develop industrial terminal products that adapt to the development trend of general intelligence, develop consumer-level terminals with a large volume and wide coverage, intelligent and convenient, and immersive experience, and strengthen the promotion and application of new interactive methods to meet the new needs of digital life, digital culture, and public services.
Strengthen policy guidance and institutional safeguards. In the future, the industry is still in the "young" stage of gestation, germination or industrialization, and it is not only necessary to help it increase R&D investment and enhance innovation vitality on the supply side, but also to provide market support for it on the demand side to promote the industrialization of scientific and technological innovation achievements. In terms of encouraging R&D, we can give full play to the advantages of the new national system to systematically promote technological research in key areas, guide all localities to combine the industrial base and resource endowment, rationally plan, accurately cultivate and dislocate the development of future industries, and vigorously cultivate leading entrepreneurs and scientists in future industries, and so on. In terms of the transformation of achievements, we can build an online release hall for future industrial achievements, build a product trading platform, hold an achievement docking exhibition, promote the precise docking of supply and demand, build a new model of scientific and technological services and technology market, select professional institutions for the evaluation and transfer of scientific and technological achievements, and develop application scenarios and business models. In addition, it can also promote the interactive development of standardization and scientific and technological innovation, strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, carry out technology forecasting, etc., and enhance the complementarity between the elements of future industrial innovation.
Enrich the application scenarios of future industries. Whether the market agrees or not is related to whether the industry can develop and grow in the future. It can take the lead in piloting and innovating application scenarios such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, quantum cloud, and metaverse in the fields of digital government and digital society, laying the foundation for future industrial development. In terms of digital government construction, quantum cloud and artificial intelligence technology can be relied on to establish and improve the national public data resource system, build an intelligent and intensive platform support system, improve data processing and business handling capabilities, and promote the continuous improvement of the standardization, standardization and facilitation of government services. In terms of the construction of a digital society, we can further promote the construction of smart communities, integrate humanoid robots and the metaverse into many fields such as smart buildings, smart homes, smart elderly care, and smart nursing, so as to create a new lifestyle for the future; In addition, it can also develop new industrialization scenarios, create cross-border integration scenarios, and build iconic scenarios, so as to promote the maturity of future industrial technologies with large-scale iterative application of products.
Strengthen the creation of content that matches the future industry. Digital content creation plays a silent role in promoting the development of future industries such as artificial intelligence, metaverse, and blockchain. It can fully tap the excellent traditional Chinese cultural resources and create local content products. For example, with the help of new technologies such as three-dimensional information collection, model processing, and 3D printing, we will innovate the way of disseminating history and culture, reproduce the original appearance and historical scenes of cultural relics through immersive experience technologies such as virtual reality and augmented reality, and use new technologies such as artificial intelligence and the metaverse to create more content carriers that carry the excellent traditional Chinese culture. It can also enrich cultural and creative design and lead the high-quality development of digital culture and entertainment. For example, new technologies such as NFT are used to help upgrade content products, promote the continuous improvement of local film and television peripherals and animation and game product design, and expand digital consumption. It can also integrate the "cutting-edge" and "trendy" characteristics of digital content into the development process of future industries, enhance the soft power of future industries, promote future industries to become cultural exchange platforms, promote the vigorous development of creative design with Chinese characteristics, and continuously meet the diverse, multi-level and multi-faceted spiritual and cultural needs of the people.
(Author's Affiliation: Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Promoting industrial innovation with the construction of computing power network (everyone's handwriting)
Gawain
General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "We must strengthen the construction of information infrastructure, strengthen the in-depth integration of information resources, and open up the information 'artery' of economic and social development." "In the era of digital economy, computing power network is a cutting-edge technology, and once conquered, it will become an important digital infrastructure. Speeding up the construction and application of the national integrated computing power network will greatly accelerate the pace of industrial innovation and promote the development of new quality productivity.
Computing power (hereinafter referred to as "computing power") refers to the peak computing capacity of various computers, including supercomputers and cloud computing, which is a collection of computing speed, computing methods, data storage capabilities, data transmission capabilities and other capabilities. With the development of the digital economy, the importance of computing power is increasing, and it is becoming an important indicator to measure the quality of a country's or region's economic development. Relevant studies show that an average increase of 1 percentage point in the computing power index can bring about 3.3‰ growth in the digital economy and about 1.8‰ in GDP.
Computing power mainly provides services to the society through new infrastructure such as computing power networks. The computing power network is a digital infrastructure that interconnects large-scale heterogeneous computing resources and data resources such as general computing, intelligent computing, and supercomputing across the country. By interconnecting computing nodes through the computing power network, we can give full play to the role of these computing resources, realize efficient resource scheduling, green and low-carbon facilities, flexible supply of computing power, and intelligent on-demand services, and empower high-quality economic development with high-quality development of computing power.
The construction of computing power network is conducive to unleashing the innovation vitality of data elements. As a new factor of production, data has been rapidly integrated into production, service, management and other links. Through the computing power network, the nationwide computing power, data and other resources can be gathered and shared, which can significantly reduce the cost of data transmission, effectively solve the technical obstacles of massive data transmission, and provide rich computing resources and data support for various innovative subjects in scientific research and innovation, application incubation, industrial agglomeration, talent development, etc. At the same time, the continuous improvement of the relevant technical level of the computing power network and the continuous expansion of application fields will effectively promote the integration and innovation of computing power, data and algorithms, give birth to more new application scenarios and business models, and further promote the innovation and development of new industries, new formats and new models.
The construction of computing power network is conducive to promoting the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy. Giving full play to the role of the computing power network and promoting the collaborative application of computing power, data, and algorithms will promote the interconnection of all elements of the industry, break industrial and geographical restrictions, break through blocking points, reduce transaction costs, and promote the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy. This is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, to promote the deep integration of the digital economy with agriculture, manufacturing, service industry and other industries, to reshape the form of the real economy and the modern industrial system, and to achieve all-round integration; second, to promote the integration of the digital economy into R&D and design, manufacturing, product sales, after-sales service, enterprise management and other economic activities, to reshape the value creation process, to achieve full-cycle integration; and third, to promote the gradual deepening of the development of the real economy along the direction of digitalization, networking, and intelligence, and to achieve full-stage integration.
The construction of computing power network is conducive to the construction of a modern industrial system. Computing power network can play an important role in promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Coordinating the collaborative computing of general computing power, intelligent computing power, and super computing power can help traditional industries implement more accurate production strategies through data analysis and data modeling, and guide and promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. The computing power network also plays an important role in promoting the growth and expansion of new industries. New industries, new formats, new models, and new scenarios, represented by smart cities, autonomous driving, telemedicine, and intelligent manufacturing, require real-time identification and judgment, and there is a strong demand for computing power to be called at any time and efficient computing. Only by vigorously developing the computing power network can we meet the massive real-time and efficient computing needs. Especially in terms of promoting the development and growth of artificial intelligence-related industries, by aggregating massive data, algorithms and computing resources, the computing power network can not only effectively meet the growing computing needs of new industries, promote the innovation and application of related technologies, but also provide rich materials and experimental platforms for artificial intelligence innovators, and help form an enabling paradigm of "artificial intelligence +".
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, our party has attached great importance to the construction of new infrastructure such as computing power networks. In February 2022, the "Eastern Data and Western Computing" project was officially launched to create a "one network" for computing power across the country. Under the leadership of the CPC Central Committee, the mainland computing power network has developed rapidly, the construction of national hub nodes has achieved phased results, the uneven distribution of computing resources in the east and west has been significantly improved, and the trend of intensification has taken shape. With the support of the computing power network, the efficiency of computing resources in mainland China has been continuously improved and the cost has been continuously reduced. By the end of 2023, the total scale of data center racks in use across the country will exceed 8.1 million standard racks, and the total scale of computing power will reach 230 exascale times per second (EFLOPS). At the same time, under the layout of the "Eastern Data and Western Computing" project and the national integrated computing network, the first phase of the China Computing Network - Intelligent Computing Network has been launched, and the "one network" of national computing power has taken shape.
The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year proposed to "promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to promote new industries, new models and new kinetic energy with disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies". This year's "Government Work Report" proposes to "build digital infrastructure moderately ahead of schedule and accelerate the formation of a national integrated computing power system". Accelerating the technology research and development and engineering construction of the computing power network will help give birth to new industries, new models and new kinetic energy from three aspects. First, by integrating and optimizing computing resources, we can provide efficient, stable and safe computing services, effectively solve problems related to data processing and computing, and help industrial technological innovation, transformation and upgrading. The second is to further break down information barriers, realize the sharing and interoperability of different data and algorithms, promote cross-border integration and innovative development between different industries and fields, and help form new industrial and value chains. The third is to rely on the optimization of the allocation of computing power resources, reduce industrial energy consumption, promote the exploration and use of green computing power, and provide strong support for the construction of a green, low-carbon, sustainable industry and digital economic system.
At the same time, it should also be noted that there are still some difficulties and challenges in promoting the rapid development of the mainland computing power network. At the technical level, it is necessary to break through the obstacles as soon as possible, such as the lack of compatibility and interconnection of various heterogeneous computing resources, the low network transmission delay between computing nodes, and the insufficient data exchange bandwidth. To this end, it is necessary to give full play to the role of national strategic scientific and technological forces, integrate multiple forces, and form a joint force in the research and construction of computing power networks. Based on mastering key core technologies, it is necessary to strengthen scientific and technological research and independent research and development in four aspects: computing layer, network layer, application layer, and security layer, and promote the key core technologies of the computing network to be basically independent, controllable, safe and reliable. At the same time, we will actively promote the innovation of systems and mechanisms, gather the forces of all parties to strengthen the development of technical standards for computing power networks, build bridges connecting technological achievements and industrial applications, and drive the continuous iterative optimization of computing network technology with practical applications.
(The author is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering)
Apply scientific and technological innovation achievements to specific industries and industrial chains in a timely manner
Promote the intelligent, green, and integrated industries (targeted)
Wan Xinrong
Promoting industrial intelligence, greening, and integration is an important measure to enhance the core competitiveness of mainland industries and promote industries to move towards the middle and high end of the global value chain. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the mainland's industrial development has made remarkable achievements, which have strongly supported modernization and high-quality development. At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is developing in depth, and the global industrial and supply chain pattern is facing profound adjustments. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that "the achievements of scientific and technological innovation should be applied to specific industries and industrial chains in a timely manner". The first meeting of the 20th Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized: "promote the intelligent, green and integrated industry". Strengthening originality and leading scientific and technological research, and promoting industrial intelligence, greening, and integration with scientific and technological innovation is conducive to accelerating the formation of new industries, new models, and new kinetic energy.
Grasp the new wave of artificial intelligence and promote industrial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is a strategic technology that leads this round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation. In recent years, the development of artificial intelligence has accelerated, showing new characteristics such as deep learning, cross-border integration, human-machine collaboration, crowd intelligence openness, and autonomous control, which are profoundly changing the industrial production function. The extensive application of digital intelligence technology represented by artificial intelligence and its deep integration with industries can promote the digital transformation of traditional industries and give birth to a large number of emerging industries, which is of great significance for the overall leap in productivity. In recent years, some new energy vehicles, equipment manufacturing and other enterprises in mainland China have deepened the application of a new generation of information technology and artificial intelligence, realized cross-system data collection, transmission, analysis and application, promoted the optimization of production processes, and improved efficiency and quality. Facing the future, we must firmly grasp the important opportunities brought by a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, promote industrial technological change and optimization and upgrading with intelligent manufacturing as the main direction, accelerate the promotion and application of new intelligent manufacturing technologies, and promote the transformation of the manufacturing industry model.
Grasp the requirements of harmonious coexistence between man and nature, and promote the greening of the industry. Green and low-carbon circular development is the direction of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation in today's era, and green technology innovation is becoming an important emerging field, including energy conservation and environmental protection, clean production, clean energy, ecological protection and restoration, urban and rural green infrastructure, ecological agriculture and other fields, covering product design, production, consumption, recycling and other links. As the main link in the relationship between man and nature, production activities are the top priority to achieve green, low-carbon and circular development. Promoting the organic integration of digital intelligence technology, green technology and industrial development can promote the green, low-carbon and sustainable production methods. In recent years, some construction projects have adopted the "intelligent waste pool + intelligent inventory" system to accurately grasp the consumption cost and achieve green construction, which has changed people's traditional impression of "storming dust and dust" in the construction industry. Facing the future, it is necessary to firmly establish and practice the concept that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets, encourage green technology innovation and green environmental protection industry development, build a green manufacturing system and service system, accelerate low-carbon process innovation and digital transformation in the industrial field, implement refined management, maximize the utilization of resources and minimize pollution emissions, and promote the development mode to accelerate green and low-carbon transformation.
Focusing on improving the overall efficiency of the industrial system, we will promote industrial integration. With the in-depth promotion of the "synchronization of the four modernizations", the multiplier effect of industrial integration and development can be brought into play, which can greatly improve the overall efficiency of the industrial system. In recent years, new technologies, new formats and new models have been emerging, and industry boundaries have become more and more blurred, laying the foundation for promoting the coupling and linkage of different industries, extending the industrial chain and improving the value chain in the integrated development of industries. For example, in recent years, through a series of measures such as policy formulation, standard promotion, project implementation, and pilot demonstration, the mainland has steadily improved the level of integrated development of informatization and industrialization, accelerated the construction of an integrated development ecology based on the industrial Internet, and developed new models and new formats such as personalized customization, networked collaboration, and service-oriented extension, which have played an important role in enhancing the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and cultivating a modern industrial system. Facing the future, in line with the trend of scientific and technological revolution, industrial transformation and consumption upgrading, we will deepen business linkage, chain extension and technology penetration, promote a high degree of synergy and coupling between industrial categories, regions, large and medium-sized enterprises, and upstream and downstream links, and explore new formats, new models and new paths, which will further release the comprehensive benefits of the industrial network.
(Author's Affiliation: Sun Yat-sen University)
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