With tensions between Iran and Israel escalating abruptly, the proxy conflict between the two sides appears to be on the verge of direct confrontation. Recently, Mohammad Jamshidi, deputy director of political affairs in the Office of the President of Iran, publicly announced that Iran has issued a written warning to the US government, urging it to stay away from Israel in order to avoid being involved in a potential conflict and suffering unnecessary harm. This unprecedented diplomatic move reveals new dynamics in the regional power game and Iran's intention to influence its position on Middle East policy through direct dialogue with the United States.
1. Behind the Written Warning: Iran's Intentions and Tactics
Iran's choice to send a written warning to the United States sends multiple messages through an extraordinary diplomatic tactic. First, it suggests that Iran sees the role of the United States in the current situation as not neutral, but rather tightly tied to Israel, especially in terms of military action and policy coordination. Iran seeks to highlight Israel's destabilizing role in the region by directly calling on the United States to distance itself and link it to American interests, forcing the United States to reassess whether its support for Israel is in its long-term interests.
Second, it is intended to demonstrate to the international community Iran's calm and restraint in the face of Israeli provocations, and that despite the attack on its senior commander in Syria, Iran has chosen to retaliate diplomatically rather than immediately militarily, demonstrating its willingness to resolve the dispute through peaceful means. The written warning also implies that Iran has a clear strategic plan for possible retaliatory actions, that is, to avoid direct targeting of U.S. targets in order to reduce the risk of the conflict escalating into a full-scale confrontation between the United States and Iran.
2. The response and position of the United States
The official U.S. response to Iran's warning was to ask Iran not to target U.S. facilities. This response is both a direct response to the Iranian threat and a security commitment to its ally, Israel. The United States is clearly reluctant to be led by Iran in Middle East policy, especially when Israel's security is seen as its core interest in the region. However, the U.S. response did not directly address the issue of distancing itself from Israel, reflecting the delicate balance between a close relationship with Israel and the avoidance of a direct conflict with Iran.
III. Israel's Role and Motivations
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been explicitly named by Iran as a "trapper" figure, an accusation that underscores the deep-seated animosity between the two countries. Israel's recent airstrikes on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Syria, which killed several people, including a senior commander of the Quds Force, sparked a strong reaction at Iran's highest levels. Israel's actions are both a continuing blow to Iran's military presence in Syria and a direct challenge to Iran's nuclear program and regional influence. Netanyahu may hope to intensify domestic support for his hardline foreign policy by exacerbating tensions with Iran, and to push the United States to further strengthen sanctions and containment against Iran.
Regional and global impact
The exchange of written warnings between Iran and the United States has undoubtedly heightened tensions in the Middle East. On the one hand, this could lead Israel to take more aggressive preemptive military action to eliminate the so-called Iranian threat; on the other hand, Iran, while under pressure, may seek indirect strikes against Israeli and American interests through its regional allies, such as Allah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, creating a situation of multi-front confrontation.
At the global level, this event could have an impact on international energy markets and exacerbate oil price volatility, especially if tensions threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the deterioration of U.S.-Iran relations could affect ongoing negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal, making the prospects for a revival of the deal even more uncertain.