The baking industry accelerates the reshuffle of 2 yuan bread and wants to be an "assassin"

Reporter Dang Peng reports from Chengdu

"We've been closed for more than a month. The long queue from the door to the door felt like a dream. In Chengdu, Mr. Cao, the owner of a cake shop chain that had just closed, said the main reason for the closure was that the rental and labor costs of the mall were too high.

2023 is obviously not an easy year for brand chain enterprises in the baking industry. According to the big data of red meal, as of October 2023, there will be 122,000 new stores and 120,100 closed stores in the bread baking track, with a net increase of 1,874 stores. Overall, the growth rate of the total number of bread bakery stores in the country in 2023 will only be 1%, and the registration revocation ratio will fluctuate and decline.

At the same time, the reporter of "China Business Daily" noticed that 2 yuan bakeries have appeared in many cities across the country, with the gimmick of baking and selling, to carry out large-scale chain franchises, known as the "assassin" of the baking industry.

Regarding the current situation of the baking industry, the reporter contacted a number of leading companies, either refusing to be interviewed or being secretive.

"The development of China's baking industry has been very good from south to north and from east to west, but behind the speed, there is more intensification of competition, involution, and the intensification of bankruptcy. Zhu Danpeng, an analyst of China's food industry, believes that under such a node, the positioning of the entire baking industry is very critical, in other words, what kind of consumers the brand is facing, quality, supply chain, service system, customer stickiness, consumption scenarios, new product promotion, etc.

The baking industry is cold

The reporter noticed that the Hutou Bureau Standard Chartered Cake Store (hereinafter referred to as "Hutou Bureau"), a new Chinese pastry store that was once a smash hit, has now disappeared.

In fact, from March 2023, there has been news of the closure of offline stores in Hutou Bureau. Today, almost all of the stores of Hutou Bureau in major cities across the country are closed, and the founders are also restricted from high consumption. Among the 10 cities listed on the Hutou Bureau's WeChat mini-program, stores can no longer be searched, and the content update of its service account is also stuck on March 8, 2023.

In addition, clicking on the mini program of another baking brand, Momo Dim Sum Bureau, in addition to its home base of Changsha, Hunan Province, where 35 stores can be ordered, other cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and other places all show "no stores nearby".

Mr. Xia, who has done publicity and promotion for many bakery companies, said that only when the tide recedes can you see who is swimming naked.

According to the data provided to reporters by Tianyancha Data Research Institute, there are currently more than 1.04 million baking-related enterprises in the mainland, of which more than 73,000 new enterprises will be added from January to December 2023, an increase of 2.6% compared with the same period in 2022, and from the perspective of geographical distribution, the number of enterprises in Guangdong, Shandong and Jiangsu ranks in the forefront, with more than 119,000, more than 100,000 and more than 71,000 respectively.

According to the recently released Meituan Group Buy's "2023 Meituan In-Store Catering Category Report: Insight Report on the Development and Changes of the Baking Industry after the Epidemic", in the first half of 2023, baking will account for less than 10% of the entire catering financing project, and coffee and tea are still popular investment tracks. From 2021 to 2023, 65% of the overall baking investment projects are in the early stage, and 70% are still concentrated in Western-style baking projects.

The report believes that the brand concentration in the baking industry is low, and although there is a rapid climbing trend, there is a lack of leading big brands. In addition, 39 of Meituan's top 100 bakeries in 2019 will no longer be open in 2023, 32 have reduced the number of stores, and 45 have fallen out of the TOP100 ranking. "The number of online stores in the bakery industry as a whole is declining, with a 29% drop in 2023 compared to 2019. ”

"The blind expansion driven by capital is the main reason for the rapid rise and fall of Internet celebrity stores and the shrinking performance. Yu Runjie, a fast-moving consumer goods marketing expert, believes that after relying on Internet celebrity products to obtain consumer recognition, driven by capital, Internet celebrity stores have not worked professionalism, focus and perseverance, and have not built a solid moat in brand value, business model and product innovation, but blindly expanded nationwide, and the cultivation of internal management capabilities could not keep up with the pace of expansion, which led to business problems.

Yu Runjie said, "Professionalism, dedication, and perseverance are the necessary qualities for any industry." "The astonishing data of store closures in the baking industry is precisely a reflection of the unprofessionalism and lack of focus of relevant enterprises and entrepreneurs. The data of newly opened stores that have grown as much as the store closure data, some of which are still blindly following the trend, and some of them are professional and focused on expansion, the former is not optimistic, and the latter is more gratifying, and I believe that the baking market is becoming more and more professional under the leadership of the latter.

$2 bakery wants to be an "assassin"

"Freshly baked and sold, freshly toasted bread. In a small alley in the south of Chengdu, this newly opened bakery of Zhan Shi 2 Yuan attracted passers-by who stopped to taste and buy.

Compared with the previous ultra-high-end brands Dikka, LeTAO, and Renault, today's 2 yuan bakery is completely "bottom" route. The reporter noticed that when Dikka appeared in Shanghai before, it was also an Internet celebrity check-in place, but it had quietly closed its store as early as July 2023.

Today, 2 yuan bakeries are spreading on a large scale in many cities. Reporters in Beijing, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Weifang and other places, can search for different brands of 2 yuan bakeries, among which Su Mo 2 yuan bread has appeared in Meishan, Ya'an, Xuchang, Heze, Jining, Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Luoyang and other cities. In addition, there are also shared, Aishu bee, sugar one 2 yuan bread, etc., all of which have started offline chains.

The reporter noticed that at present, the joining conditions of the 2 yuan bakery are different, some need to pay training fees or franchise fees, and some need to purchase semi-finished bread. "For example, some baking brands pay 29,800 yuan for tuition alone, although they are required to learn, but this is not something that can be learned in a day or two. A baker told reporters that this model could easily become "mowing the lawn".

In this regard, Liu Qicheng, a partner of Chengdu's Zhan Shifu 2 Yuan Bakery, told reporters that only one store has been opened at present, and the number of self-operated stores is expected to open to 10 before the Spring Festival. "In addition, we have built a central kitchen to process semi-finished bread to lay a good foundation for the development of the chain, which is also a profit point in the future. Liu Qicheng said that now there are more than 20 products every day, mainly low sugar and less oil, and new products must be continuously developed to meet the needs of the market.

"At present, the willingness to consume is constantly fading, at such a node, the 2 yuan bakery has cost-effective attributes and characteristics, matching the current status quo of large consumption. Zhu Danpeng said that from the perspective of the entire industry, there will be six different levels of consumption stratification in the future: ultra-high-end, high-end, mid-to-high-end, mid-range, low-end and low-end.

In this regard, Yu Runjie believes that the 2 yuan bakery is essentially one of the core competitiveness of low price. In essence, low price can not become the core competitiveness of enterprises, the control of the industrial chain, the improvement of operational efficiency brought by the low cost, is the real competitiveness behind the low price. The 2 yuan bakery is a new "outlet", "I don't think that their low prices are based on low costs, so they don't have growth potential." ”

As for the franchise model of the 2 yuan bakery, it is generally a small community store, about 20 square meters, and some baking equipment needs to be purchased. In addition, the cost of labor and rent is relatively high, and the total investment of a store is about 60,000 yuan.

"These 2 yuan bread really meets the needs of current consumers and provides new business opportunities for entrepreneurs. Yuan Xiaoran, executive chairman and secretary general of the Chengdu Catering Association, said that the low unit price depends on the high repurchase rate, and at the same time, the procurement cost can be reduced. Therefore, although there is gross profit, but what is earned is hard money, we must do a good job in products, services, tell a good story, and polish a good brand.

Yuan Xiaoran emphasized that according to the "Regulations on the Administration of Commercial Franchises" promulgated by the State Council and related questions and answers, franchisors engaged in franchise activities should have at least 2 directly operated stores and have been in operation for more than 1 year. The franchisor shall, within 15 days from the date of the first conclusion of the franchise contract, file with the competent department of commerce in accordance with the regulations. "Remind entrepreneurs to clearly understand the risks of franchise chains, choose qualified brands to join, and prevent some enterprises from using franchises to defraud. ”

Product innovation still needs to be improved

Xieshenglong, a time-honored brand in Chengdu, has been discontinued for many years and only officially relaunched in May 2019. Today, there are nearly 30 directly-operated stores in Chengdu, and they are still expanding in the past two years when the baking industry is sluggish.

Wang Yijiao, chairman of Xieshenglong, said that they can regain market recognition mainly in two aspects: one is to capture young consumer groups through product innovation with the image of new Chinese pastries, such as healthy food with less oil and sugar has become the mainstream;

"Green, healthy, natural and organic, this is the direction that the baking industry needs to innovate. Yuan Xiaoran said that specifically, it is a green and healthy consumption concept, natural and organic raw materials. With the influence of the general health trend, baked goods should change high sugar, high fat and high calorie, and develop in the direction of light and nutritional balance. "The bakery industry is showing a trend of combining tradition and innovation to provide consumers with a comfortable consumption experience. ”

The reporter noticed that many baking brands such as Hollyland, Master Bao, Yuanmai Hill, Momo Dim Sum Bureau, and Daoxiangcun have launched low-sugar and low-fat products in the past two years to cater to consumers' pursuit of healthy eating habits.

"The ability to consistently launch new products that sell well is key to attracting a new generation of consumers in the traditional bakery industry. Yu Runjie believes that good selling first means "delicious", and China is just a big country of food, and there are many kinds of food in various places. How the bakery industry absorbs "nutrients" from a variety of cuisines is a shortcut to product innovation. First of all, the product innovation and taste innovation of the instant noodle industry are worth learning from; secondly, it is also an important part of product innovation to improve internal operation capabilities, improve operating efficiency, reduce operating costs, and provide consumers with more cost-effective bakery products; When a brand becomes an Internet celebrity brand, whether the operator can restrain the impulse to expand and whether it can continue to provide consumers with sincere rather than gimmicky products is the core of product innovation. A sincere old product that continues to sell well is better than developing ten new products.

(Editor: Yu Haixia Proofreader: Liu Jun)