Economist Yi Xianrong: It may take 6 to 10 years for the property market to adjust, and housing prices are five or six times the income to be reasonable

In 2023, new policies for the real estate market will emerge one after another, and 2024 is destined to continue to optimize and adjust favorable policies. According to incomplete statistics, more than 750 local policies have been issued in the past year, involving more than 330 cities.

For the effect of the property market, we must also look at it dialectically, there are indeed certain positive signals in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the property market still needs to be more powerful policies to be introduced, and it is likely that it will still be a year for confidence to continue to repair.

On December 26, according to the year-end review of the Economic Daily, in 2023, the mainland real estate market will show a trend of "high and low before and after stability". The current real estate market is still in an adjustment cycle. As the economy continues to recover, some indicators of the real estate market continue to show signs of marginal improvement recently.

An adjustment cycle is mentioned here, and in general, the adjustment cycle of the real estate market can be divided into three phases: boom, adjustment, and recovery. The key question is how long will this adjustment period last, months or years, or longer?

On December 30, Yi Xianrong, an economist and professor at Qingdao University's School of Economics, spoke about this issue in an interview with every news. He said that it will take at least 6 to 10 years for the real estate market to adjust, mainly because market expectations have changed radically. In the past, housing prices only rose but did not fall, and many people bought houses for investment, but now it is different, not only may not be able to make money, but may also be risky.

Are Yi Xianrong's words still credible? Those who are familiar with Yi Xianrong know that many years ago, he was an Internet celebrity economist, and he was also a person with status, and his predictions fell on both sides, with some people supporting one side and some people resolutely opposing it on the other, but later faded out of people's field of vision for various reasons.

Now when he talks about the topic of real estate again, is his words still reliable? How does Yi Xianrong, who has always insisted on the decline in housing prices, evaluate the decline in housing prices now?

Yi Xianrong said that in the past, housing prices only rose but did not fall, and in the future, real estate prices should gradually move down to release housing demand and achieve a balance between supply and demand. However, housing prices should not fall too quickly and too sharply, after all, real estate is closely related to banks, enterprises, stock markets, etc., and must develop steadily and healthily.

On the one hand, make good use of this real estate adjustment cycle to achieve price for volume, and on the other hand, real estate adjustment to achieve survival of the fittest, and strengthen its ability to adapt to the new era.

In Yi Xianrong's view, residents with a median per capita income in a region can buy a house with their income from five to six years, and this is quite reasonable. To put it bluntly, housing prices are basically five or six times higher than income.

If the whole country can really achieve such a house-price-to-income ratio, how should the big cities that mean a house-price-to-income ratio of dozens of times adjust it? Will the housing prices fall sharply or the residents' incomes will increase by a large margin?

However, Yi Xianrong also affirmed the positive property market policies in various places, especially the vigorous promotion of affordable housing construction, and increasing the proportion of affordable housing is the focus of the future real estate market, which will promote the sustainable development of the real estate market and will also promote the maturity of China's real estate market.

Because today's housing prices are already very high, but housing prices are unlikely to fall rapidly, what should many people do if they can't afford to buy a house? Especially in big cities, they can only afford to buy housing when housing prices fall, and we must solve the housing needs of these people. There are still a large number of people who cannot afford to buy a house by reducing prices, and they need affordable housing. Our current share of affordable housing is less than 3%, and it will increase to at least 10% in the future.

In the period of real estate shifting, labor pains and reshuffles have become an unavoidable cruel reality. However, in the long run, whether it is affordable housing or commercial housing, there is still a large demand for housing, and it is necessary to see the necessity and enthusiasm of the current real estate adjustment, as well as the future potential of real estate.

Previously, the official response was that the adjustment of real estate is conducive to the transformation of real estate to high-quality development. The adjustment of the property market is very normal, which is conducive to the elimination of backward production capacity, structural optimization, survival of the fittest, and long-term development of the market.

Therefore, whether the housing price is high or not, if there is a problem to solve the problem, do not evade, after all, the construction of affordable housing only solves the housing problem of some people, or let the housing price return to a reasonable state.