The price is upside down, the advantage is shrinking, how long can Yanghe shares "keep"?
2023 has come to an end, and the past year has not been smooth for the liquor industry.
In the context of sluggish demand and oversupply in the industry as a whole, various liquor companies have tried their best to increase sales, including many industry leaders - Luzhou Laojiao has opened a "price reduction rebate" to improve the enthusiasm of dealers, while Wuliangye has reduced the amount of traditional channels to control the volume and stabilize the price.
Compared with Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, which ranks third in the industry, has made fewer moves, and there has not changed much in terms of products or channels, but this does not mean that Yanghe shares have no difficulties. Like most liquor companies, Yanghe shares are also facing the situation of "not selling" - many of its products are in an upside-down state, such as 550ml 52 degrees Dream Blue M6+, the recommended retail price of a single bottle is more than 900 yuan, and Pinduoduo two bottles are only 1158 yuan.
In addition to the fact that the products cannot be sold and the price is upside down, the step-by-step pressure of Shanxi Fenjiu is also another major problem faced by Yanghe. According to the third quarterly report, in the first three quarters of this year, Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue was 26.74 billion, while Yanghe's revenue was 30.28 billion, and Yanghe was currently 3.54 billion ahead of Shanxi Fenjiu. Although it is still in the leading position, the gap between the two in the same period last year was 4.34 billion, and it is clear that the lead of Yanghe shares has narrowed.
From the current point of view, Yanghe shares are facing the dilemma of "internal and external attack". In this case, how long can Yanghe sit in the third position in the industry?
Growth slowed
In the face of Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe shares and other liquor companies to catch up, Yanghe shares this year set a revenue growth target of 18.5%.
"To achieve the '14th Five-Year Plan' for the liquor industry, an annual growth rate of 15% is not enough. At this year's shareholders' meeting, Zhang Liandong, chairman of Yanghe Co., Ltd., said in a high-profile manner, "To realize the 'double increase' of enterprises from the second entrepreneurship to the second take-off and then to the second leap, the annual growth rate needs to be no less than 18.5%. ”
However, with the disclosure of the third quarterly report, the revenue growth target set by Yanghe at the beginning of the year now seems unlikely to be achieved.
According to the financial report, in the first three quarters of this year, Yanghe achieved revenue of 30.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.35%, and a net profit of 10.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.47%. Looking only at the revenue and revenue growth rate in the first three quarters, it is very difficult for Yanghe to achieve the annual revenue growth target of 18.5%.
Moreover, judging from the single-quarter performance, this year's Yanghe shares are obviously "high open and low go". In the first three quarters of this year, Yanghe achieved revenue of 15.05 billion, 6.827 billion and 8.41 billion respectively, with revenue growth rates of 15.51%, 16.06% and 11.03% respectively, and the revenue growth rate slowed down significantly in the third quarter. According to the current development trend of Yanghe shares, not to mention the revenue growth target of 18.5%, it is unknown whether it can reach the growth rate of 15%.
In fact, in recent years, the performance growth rate of Yanghe shares has slowed down significantly. In terms of the extended cycle, Yanghe shares, as the leader of Suzhou wine, had a period of rapid growth before 2013, especially during the period from 2006 to 2010, the revenue growth rate in these years was 56.71%, 64.45%, 52.22%, 49.21% and 90.35%, except for 2009, which was slightly less than 50%, the remaining four years of revenue growth were above 50%, especially in 2010, it reached an astonishing 90.35%.
However, after entering 2013, the performance growth rate of Yanghe shares began to slow down. Judging from the annual report data of the last five years, the revenue growth rate of Yanghe shares from 2018 to 2022 is 21.3%, -4.28%, -8.76%, 20.14% and 18.76% respectively. In fact, in the past two years, the revenue growth rate of Yanghe shares has picked up significantly, but compared with the performance growth rate in 2013, the performance of Yanghe shares has slowed down significantly.
With the slowdown in performance growth, the third position in the industry of Yanghe shares has become precarious. You must know that in the first three quarters of this year, the revenue growth rate of Shanxi Fenjiu reached 20.78%, which was significantly higher than that of Yanghe. At present, Yanghe shares are 3.54 billion ahead of Shanxi Fenjiu in terms of revenue, although it still maintains a leading edge in terms of revenue, but according to the current trend, I am afraid that it will not be too long for Shanxi Fenjiu to surpass Yanghe shares in revenue.
The price is inverted
In fact, the reason why the growth rate of Yanghe shares has slowed down in the past two years has a lot to do with the "failure" of high-end.
There is a saying in the liquor industry that those who get high-end win the world, but high-end is the weakness of Yanghe shares, Zhang Liandong also said frankly that "at present, Yanghe shares are weak in the high-end." ”
According to the data, at present, more than ninety percent of the high-end liquor market is occupied by the three major brands of Feitian Moutai, Wuliangye Puwu and Guojiao 1573. Although it is the third in the industry, the main competitiveness of Yanghe shares is in the sub-high-end products. According to media statistics, the average tonnage price of Yanghe is 188,700 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 94 yuan per bottle, while the average tonnage price of Luzhou Laojiao is 336,100 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 168 yuan per bottle, nearly twice that of Yanghe.
Of course, Yanghe shares also want to impact the high-end market and focus on high-end products such as Dream 9+. However, consumers do not buy the high-end products of Yanghe shares, and many high-end products of Yanghe shares are in a state of price inversion, such as 550ml 52 degrees of dream blue M6+, the recommended retail price is more than 900 yuan, but Pinduoduo two bottles are only 1158 yuan, an average of less than 600 yuan / bottle, and the high-end product dream 9+ is currently in a state of price inversion.
From the perspective of gross profit margin, due to the "failure" of high-end, the gross profit margin of Yanghe shares is lower than that of Luzhou Laojiao. As of the third quarter of this year, the gross profit margin of Yanghe shares was 75.77% and the net profit margin was 33.75%, while the gross profit margin of Luzhou Laojiao was 88.45% and the net profit margin was 36.78%. Obviously, the gross profit margin of Luzhou Laojiao is higher.
In order to enhance the brand image and promote the progress of high-end, Yanghe has increased its investment in advertising since the beginning of this year. According to the financial report, in the first three quarters of this year, the sales expenses of Yanghe shares were 3.562 billion, while in the same period last year, the expenses were 2.543 billion, and the sales expenses of Yanghe shares have risen by 40% this year. However, at present, the investment has not yet had obvious results - after all, high-end is not something that can be achieved simply by advertising, and what is needed is the cultural accumulation of the wine company itself.
To sum up, although Yanghe shares have not made much action this year, there are still many difficulties it is currently facing, especially in the face of Shanxi Fenjiu, which is approaching step by step, and the third position in the Yanghe shares industry is precarious. From the perspective of stock price, Yanghe shares have fallen to 102.89 yuan / share, with a total market value of 155 billion yuan, and the high point of 258.86 yuan / share has been cut in half.