Before reading this article, I sincerely invite you to click the "Follow" button, so that you can continue to push such articles in the future, and it is also convenient for you to discuss and share, your support is the driving force for us to insist on creating~
Text: According to the snow under the jade pass
Edit| According to the snow under the jade pass
There is a joke circulating on the Internet that every time India applies for "permanent membership", it is vetoed by the five permanent members in turn. At one point, it was China's turn to veto, and China agreed. As a result, a "re-vote" was announced on the spot, and after everyone deliberated behind closed doors, they continued to veto.
In fact, the reality is even more "cruel" than the joke, because India has not even voted in the General Assembly, and there is no need for the P5 to make a move.
It has been 30 years since India first applied for "normalization" in 1994. This year, India is preparing to "become a permanent member" again, and it has received the support of four of the five permanent members. China has not taken a stand. Indians rejoiced and felt that "it was very likely".
So the question is, can India's "great power dream" be realized?
It is no exaggeration to say that Indians are really crazy if they want to "become normal". It is crazy that "China's permanent seat was ceded by Nehru" is a rumor that anyone with common sense in history knows to be false, but there is a huge market in India, completely ignoring the objective fact that India was still a British colony in 1945.
India has a strong national self-confidence and feels that there is no question of whether India can become a world power at all, but when India will become a world power. Whether or not India can become a permanent member of the Security Council is an important criterion for judging whether India is a "world power."
Thus, in 1994, India formally requested to become a permanent member of the Security Council at the General Assembly for the following reasons:
"First, India is the largest democracy in the world, has a long civilization, a worldview with a global perspective, respects diversity and pluralism, and is actively prepared to participate constructively in world affairs.
Second, India, one of the world's major economies, will play an increasingly important role in the development of the international economic and financial order.
Thirdly, India's long-standing participation in United Nations peacekeeping operations demonstrates the political will of the Government of India to actively contribute to peacekeeping operations. ”
Obviously, if you think you can be elected as a permanent member of the Security Council, the Council will not be just five countries more than half a century later.
Because India wants to become a permanent member of the Security Council, it needs to amend the UN Charter.
Amendments to the UN Charter require a vote of more than two-thirds of the members of the UN General Assembly and approval by the legislative bodies of more than two-thirds of the UN member states, including all permanent members of the Security Council.
Some friends may be curious, so why did the Taiwan authorities, the United States, and the Soviet Union not veto New China's return to the United Nations?
That is because New China is replacing the seat of the previous regime in the United Nations, and if it expells the Taiwan authorities from the United Nations after a vote of the UN General Assembly, it will automatically inherit the power of a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and the Security Council has no right to interfere.
If a new country joins the United Nations, or wants to become a "P5," then the Security Council will be able to manage it.
If India wants to become a permanent member, the UN General Assembly will not be able to pass this hurdle. The P5 were the victorious countries in the Second World War, without whom there would be no United Nations, and a seat should be there. But what about you, India.
Why can you be normal, we can't. In particular, the African countries, which account for the largest proportion of the members of the General Assembly, want the new permanent members to be African.
In 2005, India changed its game of play and joined forces with Japan, Germany, and Brazil to form the so-called "G-4" in a vain attempt to change the "P5" into the "P9".
Italy is an opponent of Germany, South Korea (Japan), Pakistan (India), and Argentina (Brazil) has joined forces with more than 70 countries to launch the "Uniting for Consensus" movement, resolutely opposing the expansion of the permanent membership and only supporting the expansion of the non-permanent membership.
Among the P5, the United States only supports Japan, while China has made it clear that it only supports the increase of small and medium-sized developing countries in Africa and other regions. The other three permanent members seem to be very "detached", after all, two of the five permanent members are "wicked people", and they are happy to be "good people".
Once again, India's race for normalcy has failed.
Now, as the Security Council approaches its 80th anniversary, India is again saying that it has "seen an opportunity."
Indians think they have "turned a chicken into a phoenix", the world's fifth-largest economy, and the "spokesperson of the Global South".
Britain, France, and the United States have all made clear their support for India as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
On December 28, 2023, when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Indian counterpart, he also made it clear that he supported "India's addition to the institution".
But it's not that simple.
The reason why Russia nodded in agreement is that India has paid great benefits, the two countries have launched the international north-south transport corridor, Russia and India have jointly produced weapons and equipment, and increased cooperation in energy fields.
However, Indians have probably never heard of these two Chinese sentences, that is, "consent in the past is not consent" and "consent can be revoked".
A few years ago, Indians were in the limelight more than they are now, and Britain, France, the United States, and Russia have agreed, and even China has said: "India is a responsible regional power and should play an important role in global affairs." ”
But when it came time to vote, Russia was the first to vote against it, warning India that "it should not deliberately seek to become a permanent member of the Security Council, and even if it does not become a permanent member, it can play an important role in global affairs." ”
The situation in India is not even as good as it was then, at least since 2020, China-India relations have been in decline, and there is no need for China to support India's ambitions. It is too late for the United States to deal with China, Russia and Iran, and it is impossible for India to "take a step closer" and cultivate opponents for its future self.
Even if the P5 does not object, it would be a dream for India to win two-thirds of the UN General Assembly votes. Leaving aside African countries, it is unlikely that the Muslim countries will be in favour of India's accession. After all, everyone knows the tragic situation of the persecution of Muslims under Modi's rule, and it is not in the interests of Islamic countries to bring India into normalcy.
In the final analysis, the P5 is the P5 because without the P5, the United Nations would lack a large part of its legitimacy. During the Korean War, if New China did not agree, then the "United Nations Army" could only stop at the 38th parallel, and if it crossed the line, it could push you back.
The Soviet Union collapsed, and if Russia had not been a permanent member of the Security Council and had not had a platform for major powers to negotiate, the devil knows what they would have done.
What about India? What can it do but bully small countries like Bhutan, Sikkim, Nepal, Maldives, and Sri Lanka?
Even if you blow yourself to the third place in the world, a 1962 war will be beaten back to the prototype.
So, while there are rumors that India "will withdraw from the United Nations if it can't become normal", who cares about the United Nations?