European and American stock markets hit new highs, Japanese and Indian stock markets are fierce, why are A-shares maverick?

This is the 815th original article on the New Energy Big Bang

When I woke up one night, it seemed that the whole world was rising, and we were left with Big A still stumbling and falling.

 01 

It's going up all over the world

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has shown signs of a temporary end, so the world's assets began to move, the US stock market hit a new high, the European stock market hit a new high, the Japanese stock market hit a new high, the Indian stock market hit a new high, and even the Argentine stock market is also rising, and a certain Bitcoin is also rising.

The point is that not only during this time, but also in the past 10 years, many of the markets mentioned above have fared better than A-shares!

For example, in the past 10 years, the United States has increased by 152%, India has increased by 227%, Egypt has increased by 282%, Brazil has increased by 146%, Japan has increased by 111%, Vietnam has increased by 92% in 10 years, and Germany has increased by 81% in 10 years......

The most exciting is Argentina, which has risen by 16,669% in the past 10 years! The country has always been on the verge of bankruptcy, as if there is no bright spot except football, the stock market has risen so much, and sure enough, the stock market is one of the best ways to resist inflation!

As for China, which has risen by 38% in the past 10 years, it is not at the bottom, and we are also ranked behind South Korea, the United Kingdom, Spain, Russia, etc.

But with China's economic performance in the past ten years, the stock market should not be such a performance, of course, we all know the specifics, in fact, it is not that the performance of A-shares in the past 10 years is not good, in fact, in the past 10 years, there have been two waves of bull market in the middle!

However, in the past two years, the performance of large A stocks has indeed been relatively bad, especially in the recent situation where global assets have performed vigorously, but we have walked out of a one-sided downward trend, which is the most devastating.

I know that when everyone falls together, the feeling is not the worst, the worst thing is that everyone is skyrocketing, but they are losing money, and the mentality is simply a big explosion on the spot.

Recently, A-share investors have felt this way compared to the rest of the world.

What happened to A-shares, and what is the market afraid of?

 02 

What is the market afraid of?

There may be many reasons, but at present, there should be only two core reasons.

The first is the geopolitical aspect, the risk of a possible decoupling between China and the beautiful country. In fact, the market's concern about this issue has been evident since the last two years, especially from last year to the middle of this year. Recently, due to some high-level actions, the market has eased this concern, but many people still believe that the de-gou is certain, and this concern continues to be reflected in the market trend.

The second is concerns about China's economy.

If you refer to the clearing time after each round of housing prices peaking in Japan and the United States, it will take 5 to 6 years to get rid of the United States, not to mention Japan, which is very similar to us in all aspects, that is, the domestic real estate clearance has not yet reached the bottom, and in the real estate clearance stage, the days are relatively sad.

In addition, various economic data are indeed not very good, especially the CPI in November, which makes the market worry about whether the domestic economy is about to enter the deflationary stage.

Although for the CPI in November, the new energy explosion believes that the market is too worried, mainly because the price of pork has fallen too much, and it is not as bad as interpreted in many news, but in any case, after all, the data is not very good, and the already weak confidence is even weaker.

In the capital market, when there is a bull market, any good is good, and conversely, when there is a bear market, any good is bad.

In the past few years, anxiety and involution have become the mainstream of the whole society, and the market confidence is seriously insufficient, which has finally been transmitted to the secondary market.

Since last year, after the end of the new energy hype, although AI took over the baton at the beginning of the year, the domestic AI strength is too far behind the top foreign ones, and it is backward from the basic level to the application level, and it cannot become the main force of the market like new energy, and the money-making effect of the market is even worse.

 03 

This time is different?

When will such a day come to an end?

Leo doesn't know when the bottom will come, but considering that the valuation of A-shares has been within the 3% percentile in the past decade, which is already super invincible and cheap, we are now in the historic bottom area, there is no doubt about it.

I know that someone is going to say, "This time is different," as people like to say at the end of every bear and bull market in the past.

But when this kind of rhetoric is noisy in the market, I always silently look for answers from past historical trends, and the trend of SZSE Component Index always gives me unlimited confidence.

When I look back at the macro and micro situations and the mood of the market during those bull and bear markets, I understand that history may not repeat itself exactly, but it always rhymes with the same rhyme, because human nature is eternal.

I believe in the wisdom of human beings, and at the end of each round of economic development, there will be a new technological breakthrough ceiling, and I also believe in the wisdom of the Chinese.

China, with the world's largest group of engineers, is less pessimistic and remains one of the best and most resilient mainstream economies globally.

There will be bread, there will be love, there will be a bull market, and we are infinitely close to the bull market!

The peripheral market is still singing with fireworks, and the hearts of domestic people are rising, but they are just missing a little bit of confidence, just like dry wood poured with oil, only missing that spark.

are all waiting for the arrival of that spark!

Please don't give up!

Statement: The article only records the author's thoughts, does not constitute investment advice, investment has huge risks, need to be cautious and cautious, I hope you treat your investment like decorating a house, don't let the time to pick a company is not as much as the time you pick furniture, you can repeatedly weigh small money, how to treat big money is so sloppy?