Central Financial Work Conference: Focus on these key points! Interpretation by six chief economists

Text/Qiu Muzi

The Central Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing from October 30 to 31. The Central Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing

This is the second time in six years that the National Financial Work Conference has been held after the 2017 National Financial Work Conference, and it is also the first time that the Central Financial Work Conference has been held. The meeting analyzed the situation facing the high-quality development of finance and deployed the financial work in the current and future period.

What are the priorities of the financial work proposed at this meeting? China News Service interviewed a number of chief economists to make interpretations.

Lian Ping: It highlights the centralized and unified leadership of the CPC Central Committee over financial work

Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum and vice president of the Shanghai Economic Association, said that the meeting proposed for the first time that it is necessary to improve the system and mechanism of the party's leadership of financial work, give full play to the role of the Central Financial Commission, and do a good job in overall planning and coordination. We should give full play to the role of the Central Financial Work Committee and earnestly strengthen party building in the financial sector. Give full play to the role of the financial committees of local party committees and financial working committees, and implement territorial responsibilities.

He said that according to the reform plan of the party and state institutions in March this year, in order to strengthen the centralized and unified leadership of the party Central Committee over financial work, the first is to set up a central financial committee. Strengthen the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee over financial work, be responsible for the top-level design, overall coordination, overall promotion, and supervision of financial stability and development, and study and review major policies and major issues in the financial field. The second is to set up the Central Financial Working Committee. Unified leadership of the Party's work in the financial system, and guidance of the Party's political, ideological, organizational, work style, and discipline construction in the financial system.

This meeting is also the first central financial work conference held after the establishment of the Central Financial Commission and the Central Financial Working Committee, highlighting the centralized and unified leadership of the CPC Central Committee over financial work.

Cheng Shi: The strong support of finance for the economy is inseparable from its own steady development

Cheng Shi, Chief Economist of ICBC International, believes that the Central Financial Conference held at the end of October 2023 is far-sighted, clear and clear, which has played an important role in clarifying the financial industry's own positioning, realizing its original function, clarifying its development ideas, identifying the direction of progress, giving full play to positive performance, making up for risk shortcomings, enriching innovation dimensions, enhancing competitiveness, and boosting market confidence.

He mentioned that compared with the previous five national financial work conferences, the macro background of the central financial conference is more complex, sensitive and special. From an external point of view, the global economy is in a rare "stagflation" pattern, and major changes and geopolitical turmoil unseen in a century are also slowly unfolding in a way that exceeds expectations, and external uncertainties are accumulating extensively. From an internal point of view, China's economy has reached a critical stage of reform and opening up, and it is urgent to lay a solid foundation and forge ahead for financial support for the high-quality development of the real economy.

Cheng Shi believes that under the new situation of coexistence of challenges and opportunities, this meeting emphasized that "finance is the blood of the national economy and an important part of the country's core competitiveness", and the return to the origin, reform and innovation and opening up of finance are important supports to support the high quality of the real economy. The strong support of finance for the economy is inseparable from the steady development of finance itself.

Liu Jing: Lay the foundation for agile and efficient financial regulation in the future

Liu Jing, chief economist of HSBC Global Research Greater China, said that the transformation of economic structure and the emergence of financial innovation have affected the efficiency of financial resource allocation to a certain extent, causing the problem of capital shifting from real to virtual and regulatory arbitrage.

The Fifth National Financial Work Conference issued the "New Regulations on Asset Management" and reduced the scale of shadow banking, making steady progress in preventing and resolving risks in the financial system.

The conference laid the foundation for agile and efficient financial supervision in the future, making the development of the financial industry more in line with the transformation needs of the real economy and promoting the healthy development of the entire financial system.

Pang Ming: Monetary policy maintains directional, precise and sustained efforts

Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China Chief Economist and Research Director Pang Ming mentioned that on monetary policy, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to always maintain the soundness of monetary policy, pay more attention to cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment, and enrich the monetary policy toolbox.

He believes that in terms of prudent monetary policy, there is still room for moderate easing and reasonable growth in the amount of money and social financing, there is still room for steady decline in the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises and personal consumption credit costs, and there is still room for structural, policy, and development financial development tools to serve high-quality development.

It is expected that the monetary policy will continue to be steady, maintain strong and moderate monetary conditions, effectively maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, more flexibly grasp the rhythm of credit delivery, optimize and adjust credit investment and credit structure, rationally allocate credit resources, and maintain directional, precise and sustained efforts.

Ming Ming: The main development direction of real estate finance is clear

CITIC Securities Chief Economist Ming Ming said that the meeting mentioned that the establishment of macro-prudential management of real estate finance, since August, with a series of real estate landing, the real estate market has gradually recovered, and the future will become the main development direction of real estate finance for the construction of rigid, improved and guaranteed projects.

In addition, monetary policy should maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and create reasonable monetary conditions for economic and social development. Considering the recent large scale of government bond issuance, there is a certain pressure on the market capital, and it is expected that the central bank will continue to provide liquidity to the market through RRR cuts and the continuation of MLF. At the same time, the meeting mentioned that cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment, the current economic recovery is still not reliable, and the PMI released today is back below 50 again, which means that the central bank still needs to support the recovery of the real economy through aggregate and structural tools in the future.

Ming Ming also said that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been under pressure from the rise in overseas dollars recently. However, it should be noted that the exchange rate of the renminbi against the basket remains stable. In the future, with the gradual stabilization and recovery of the domestic economy and the implementation of various management policies in the foreign exchange market, the RMB is expected to stabilize.

Wen Bin: Efforts should be made to promote high-level financial opening-up

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that the Central Financial Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to focus on promoting high-level financial opening-up, ensuring national financial and economic security, and steadily expanding institutional opening-up in the financial sector, which not only echoes the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on "steadily expanding institutional opening-up such as rules, regulations, management, and standards", but also puts forward higher requirements for the next stage of financial opening-up.

On the one hand, it is necessary to accelerate the promotion of regulatory rules in line with international standards, establish a fair, transparent and standardized market system, and create a first-class business environment that is market-oriented, law-based and internationalized. On the other hand, while promoting financial opening-up, it is also necessary to earnestly maintain financial security and stability, improve risk prevention, control and mitigation capabilities, and ensure that financial management capabilities match the level of opening-up.

From: The country is a through train

Editor: Gao Yanjiao

Editor-in-charge: Wei Xi