Japan uses "developing Africa" to contain China, which "makes most African countries tired"

Source: Global Times

The Eighth Conference on African Development (TICAD), led by Japan, will be held in The North African country of Tunis, a North African country, from 27 to 28 this month. According to a number of relevant japanese government sources, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, who is suffering from new crown pneumonia, will participate in the meeting through online video and announced that he will help Africa cultivate 300,000 talents and other measures to "counter China's influence in Africa". Africa is a big market, and many countries are operating here, but it is rare for a country like Japan to often take "confrontation with China" rather than cooperative development as the goal. Although the Japanese side is targeting China and is ready to throw out a series of so-called "heavy" investment measures for Africa, it is expected that the number of participants in this session will decrease and the scale will shrink, and many people in Japan are worried that "the TICAD brand will be lost." Some analysts said that the deeper reason for the decline in TICAD's influence is that Japan's investment in Africa, personnel exchanges, etc. are in a gradual decline, and Japan follows the US diplomatic strategy, regards China as an imaginary enemy, and treats Africa as a battlefield for the game, with political provisions, which has made most African countries tired.

Japan's calculations

The "Japan Today" website reported on the 25th that "Japan promises to invest in talent in Africa to counter China" that at the African Development Conference held in Tunisia on the 27th, Kishida Fumio will announce online that he will help the local government to cultivate 300,000 talents in the field of agriculture and health care in the next three years. The move aims to support the quality and sustainability of Africa's economic growth through talent investment, highlighting the differences with China.

In fact, the Japanese media has long cooperated with the government's appeal, repeatedly emphasizing that investment in Africa is "different from China" and helping Japanese companies find investment opportunities. The author saw that one of Japan's largest circulation newspapers, the Asahi Shimbun, in order to cooperate with the government's call to invest in Africa, specially made a serial article on the African side, talking about African non-ferrous metals and cobalt and other resources, hoping that enterprises would develop.

Although the Japanese media is cheering for the government, There is confusion within Japan about whether it can invest in Africa and confront China. As early as May, at a meeting of the Japan Federation of Economic Organizations, Katsuji Hirano, chief researcher of the Institute of Asian Economics of the Japan External Trade Organization, said publicly, "The epidemic situation and the situation in Ukraine are so unclear that we feel that this meeting is difficult to hold regularly, but Tunisia, as the host country, has great expectations for Japan, and thinking of the future of the African economy, we should continue to hold it." Hirano euphemistically mentioned that Japan's non-investment has passed the highest point, it is not easy to maintain the previous investment, and the opportunity for additional investment is not very large. But for the purpose of competing with other countries, Japanese companies are called on to continue to invest in Africa.

The Japanese government's appeal and the cooperation of the media are contrary to the scale of Japan's investment in Africa. According to the Asahi Shimbun, Japanese investment in Africa peaked in 2013, exceeding $10 billion that year, and then began to decline, having fallen to less than $5 billion by 2020, recovering slightly in 2021, but by a small margin (pictured).

Used cars, high-end color TVs and sushi rolls

The African side did not respond much to Japan's convening of the conference, and many media have reported on the purpose of Japan's investment in Africa. The North African Post recently reported that the meeting will give Japan an opportunity to get Japan back on track after the turmoil of the epidemic and the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In the past, Tokyo has influenced the continent primarily through soft power, aid and development projects, while the private sector and commercial banks have been more cautious. However, against the backdrop of the dual impact of the pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the global economy, and in the face of the high economic participation of its geopolitical rival China in Africa, Tokyo wants to re-promote its private sector investment in Africa and lend to the continent.

When the Global Times reporter interviewed in many African countries, he found that although "Japanese elements" are not uncommon in Africa, they are basically only concentrated in used cars, high-end color TVs and sushi rolls. Mozambican driver Paul told reporters that the Japanese car retention rate is very high, African countries are generally not rich, Japanese used cars in Africa have a very mature supply and marketing channels, some are directly imported from Japan used cars, the various instructions in the car are in Japanese. In the field of household appliances, Japan's "position" has shrunk to Sony, Panasonic and several high-end models of audio brands, even in South Africa, where the economy is relatively developed, the highest market share of home appliances is also Chinese brands such as Hisense. In addition, in Africa, sushi is the most accepted "Chinese food", a number of local restaurants hanging "Chinese food" signboards, in fact, the main sushi, the reporter has inquired about the original commission, the answer of the African black clerk is "this is easy to do, I learned it in an afternoon."

Mr. Wu, who has been doing business in South Africa for nearly 20 years, is impressed by the decline of Japanese companies in Africa. He told the Global Times reporter that Japanese companies entered Africa from the 1960s, especially into South Africa and North Africa, where the economic development degree is relatively high, but in the past 20 years, they have been declining. Mr. Wu has been involved in the agency work of several Japanese medical device companies in South Africa, but it has been more than a decade ago. Nowadays, such Japanese companies are basically not seen in South Africa, only the franchise stores of Japanese car companies are still there, but they are also affected by the violent impact of Korean car companies, and in recent years, Chinese car brands have also increased in South Africa.

When it comes to competition with China, Mr. Wu's outstanding feeling is the issue of "national nature", he feels that the Japanese people rarely have the strength to fight alone in Africa, and the Japanese employees in Africa are basically large company migrant workers, and they have no sense of identification with African countries and Africans. In contrast, in China, South Korea or India, there are many small and medium-sized private enterprises working hard in Africa and are deeply involved in Africa's development. "This kind of people-to-people contact is important, and Africans need real friends, not just Africa as a place to make money," Mr. Wu stressed.

Japan's approach "tires most African countries"

Uganda's "Independent" analyzed on the 24th that Japanese companies lack understanding of the African continent, and most companies continue to focus on the market closer to home. The number of Japanese companies operating in Africa slowly increased from 520 in 2010 to 796 in 2019, but due to the impact of the epidemic, total investment has declined in recent years.

The World Investment Report 2022 released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that FDI (foreign direct investment) in African countries will reach a record $83 billion in 2021, and Africa's largest holders of foreign assets will still be Europeans, led by investors in the United Kingdom ($65 billion) and France ($60 billion). According to data released by China's Ministry of Commerce, by the end of 2020, China's investment stock in Africa has exceeded US$43.4 billion, with investment in more than 50 African countries.

"Japan and China are completely unable to compete in Africa!" Kenji Tanaka, chairman of the Asia-Pacific Forum in Japan, told this writer that from the figures he has so far obtained, Japan has only a few thousand residents in Africa. Japan has done a lot of work in Africa since the 1960s, but after the deceleration of its own economic expansion, the scope of its expansion abroad is limited. Tanaka believes that China has always been concerned about Africa, and there was a lot of room for cooperation between China and Japan, but judging from the statements of Japanese politicians, "the attitude of competition with China is stronger." In terms of enterprises, Tanaka believes that the number of people that Japan can send to Africa is limited, and Japanese capital has entered the bottleneck of investment in Africa, which should be the best opportunity to cooperate with China at this time, but there is not much cooperation between enterprises at present.

Krittan Bahana, editor-in-chief of South Africa's "Diplomacy" magazine, said that Japan's willingness to increase investment in Africa is welcome, but the willingness must be translated into reality and effectively benefit the African people. In terms of Japan's foreign policy in recent decades, Africa has not become Japan's priority, which is consistent with Japan's trend of following the US diplomatic strategy. Previously, Japan also participated in investment in Africa through financial institutions, but often with Western-style "strings attached", which has bored most African countries.