Huang Xuncai, who is watching | waiting to "take over the baton": Where will he lead Singapore?

The Paper's reporters Xu Zhenhua and Liu Hui

"We are a small open country. That's why we have a strong interest in the world – we have to face not only the risks and opportunities we encounter, but also the whole world system as a whole. We remain heavily dependent on trade and investment. On April 26, Singapore's finance minister, Lawrence Wong, who had just concluded a 10-day visit to the United States, wrote on Facebook.

On April 16, 2022, local time, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that the current Finance Minister, Wong Hon Chauy, will become the country's next Prime Minister. Surging image

On 14 April, Singapore's current Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong finally announced the names of the leaders of Singapore's fourth-generation leadership team (known as "4G" in Singapore): One of the co-leaders of the current government's inter-departmental working group on anti-epidemic and Finance Minister Wong Hon Chauy. On the 16th, Lee Hsien Loong, together with Huang Xuncai and retired senior official Xu Wenyuan, held a press conference at the Singapore Presidential Palace to formally announce the arrangement for "handing over the baton".

Subsequently, on April 16, Huang Xuncai officially launched a 10-day visit to the United States and did not return to Singapore until April 25. For two whole weeks, from "taking the baton" in Singapore to making an appearance on a foreign visit, from visiting the United States to emphasizing economic and trade at home, Huang Xuncai's itinerary can be described as "non-stop".

"COVID-19 is the superposition of two crises for Singapore: the fight against the virus and an economic crisis that lasts longer than the pandemic. This is the greatest test for this generation of political leaders. Alan Chong, associate professor at the Rajale Nan School of International Relations at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, analyzed the surging news (www.thepaper.cn), "At present, Huang Xuncai is the leader in this generation of leaders, but economic problems and the crisis caused by it are destined to be more protracted than the epidemic itself, and Singapore will still face greater challenges (led by Huang Xuncai after successfully becoming prime minister). ”

A new face in the world

Eugene Tan, an associate professor at Singapore Management University, told Nikkei Asia that Huang Xuncai's identity for this visit to the United States is still Singapore's finance minister, and the trip was arranged before he was identified as Lee Hsien Loong's successor on the 14th.

"Timing is fortuitous." Chen Qingwen said. Alan Zhong also believes that Huang Xuncai's visit to the United States after being established as a "baton takeover" is not the result of pre-arranged arrangements.

With being established as a leader in the "4G" team, Huang Xuncai became "Singapore's new face". "This [visit to the United States] is to introduce Huang Xuncai, a new face from Singapore, to the world, trying to raise his profile in important places." Michael Barr, an associate professor at Flinders University in Australia, told Nikkei Asia.

According to the Straits Times, during his visit to the United States from April 16 to 25, Huang Xuncai visited Washington, D.C., and New York. Huang Xuncai attended the second G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in 2022, as well as the World Bank-IMF Spring Meeting, and met with senior executives of a number of international financial and economic organizations; Huang Xuncai also met as finance minister with finance ministers of Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Japan, the Philippines, Luxembourg, Turkey, Brazil, Italy, Canada, the United Kingdom and other countries who visited the G20 finance ministers' meeting.

After visiting the United States, Huang Xuncai also met with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Vice Secretary of the Treasury Adejemo, US Trade Representative Dai Qi, US National Security Adviser Sullivan, and Commerce Department Raymondo separately. He also spoke at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a well-known non-partisan think tank in the United States, where he discussed how governments can adjust fiscal policies to promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the world under the epidemic, and called for greater multilateral cooperation in global public goods.

Many analyses have pointed out that Wong is known for his ability to lead the Singapore nation and people through the COVID-19 crisis and has shown strong administrative ability, but compared with Lee Hsien Loong, Wong's diplomatic and political experience is much weaker. Garry Rodan, emeritus professor at the University of Queensland in Australia, analyzed Nikkei Asia: "In this field (diplomacy), Huang Xuncai still has a lot of room for growth, and he will quickly begin to build his own popularity and network of relationships." ”

"He [Wong Hon Choi] has taken to the world stage as Singapore's next generation leader." "They [the outside] want to have a better understanding of Singapore's continued and evolved character , Wong's leadership style , and how Singapore positions itself in a more uncertain world," Chan said. ”

Maintain pragmatic diplomacy

As early as February this year, Huang Xuncai elaborated on his thinking on foreign policy in a public speech. According to Bloomberg on April 20, Huang Xuncai gave his first speech on the budget in Congress in February this year. At the time, he spoke of the potential for U.S.-China competition as a factor undermining the "rules-based" international order, which could erode the multilateral system, which is vital to Singapore.

"In short, we are entering a future in which conditions are more unstable, the global environment is more unpredictable, and change is faster than ever. We can – and must – make adjustments and still excel in this new environment. Huang Xuncai said in Congress in February.

On April 18, Huang Xuncai attended a dialogue at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and expressed many of his views on Sino-US relations. Huang Xuncai stressed that cooperation between the United States and China can "bring better results to the world", which is far better than trying to contain China's rise, which will eventually undermine the stability of all countries, including the United States; China's rise trend is unstoppable, and trying to contain China's rise is not only very difficult but also ineffective.

"After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, U.S.-China relations became more tense ... But we have seen constant engagement between the leaders of the two countries, and hopefully this will help to ensure that rational and informed decisions are made and that the overall relationship is stable and that there is no divergence or even complete confrontation, which would otherwise have a disastrous impact on the entire world. Huang Xuncai said at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Huang also said that trying to contain China's rise will only make China more determined to rely on itself, and excluding China from the existing international system will only lead to China developing a parallel system based on its own rules.

"China has its own development, and the United States cannot make China more like the United States, but even if there are differences between them, the United States and China have issues of common concern." Huang Xuncai said on the 18th. Huang xuncai said that as a major player in the emerging global economic architecture, China should play a "more responsible" role.

Huang Xuncai's above-mentioned remarks on Sino-US relations are similar to those of Lee Hsien Loong, both of which emphasize Singapore's unwillingness to take sides in great power competition and its refusal to recognize the US attempt to curb China's development. According to Nikkei Asia, analysts believe that huang Xuncai will follow in the footsteps of his predecessors if he makes the future prime minister of Singapore smoothly.

According to the Straits Times, Huang Xuncai and Sullivan met on April 22 to discuss issues such as U.S.-New Zealand relations, the Crisis in Ukraine, and the Crisis in Burma, as well as the results of Lee Hsien Loong's visit to the United States from the end of March to early April.

However, in response to the so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy" that the United States has promoted in recent years, Wong XunCai, Lee Hsien Loong and Singapore's mainstream media are still more inclined to use the term "Asia-Pacific" to depict Singapore's cooperation with neighboring countries in the region. According to the Global Times, some analysts believe that the so-called "Indo-Pacific" term in the United States contains anti-China implications, and its "Indo-Pacific strategy" has been criticized as the "Indo-Pacific version of NATO."

Alan Zhong said in an analysis of the surging news that Singapore will certainly not choose a side in diplomacy, "Singapore's foreign policy will not change, it will be a friend of Washington and Beijing at the same time." If you understand where Singapore's economic interests come from, you will understand why taking sides is irrational for Singapore. ”

Alan Chung also believes that even the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not forced Singapore into a situation of being forced to take sides, and Singapore seems to be able to understand China's position on the Ukraine issue.

Crises and opportunities

According to the Lianhe Zaobao, Huang Xuncai summarized his visit to the United States with a Facebook post on the 26th. He lamented that Singapore is a small open country and therefore pays special attention to the world situation. The Straits Times reported that what Wong said on Facebook means that in the face of the covid-19 pandemic, Singapore has successfully reopened and opened up a new way forward, and Singapore remains completely open to trade and investment.

This reflects a kind of confidence in the results of the fight against the epidemic and economic development: it is in the position responsible for finance and anti-epidemic that Huang Xuncai has been recognized by his colleagues and officially elected as the leader of the "4G" team.

"I don't think Huang Xuncai came out of nowhere, but was carefully selected." Alan Chung stressed to The Paper, "The People's Action Party (Singapore's ruling party) has always been very cautious about selecting candidates, and since the time of (former Prime Minister) Lee Kuan Yew, there has been a clear consensus on this, that you must elect the right people, which is the foundation of Singapore's prosperity." ”

According to Alan Chung's analysis, the leaders of the second and third generations of Singapore's leadership team have all experienced the test of national crisis to some extent before being formally established as the successor to the prime minister. For Singapore's second prime minister, Goh Chok Tong, his test before taking office was mainly an economic crisis; before the third prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, held important positions in various departments such as trade, defense and finance.

Coincidentally, The retired senior official Xu Wenyuan, who was entrusted with the "4G" team to reach a consensus on the selection of leaders, is known for his nickname of "Fire Minister" and is a well-known crisis handling figure in Singapore's political circles. Xu Wenyuan served as the head of the relevant departments when the Singapore government encountered difficulties such as the SARS epidemic, housing price disputes, and subway use crisis, and successfully allowed the People's Action Party government to tide over the difficulties.

After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in Singapore in early 2020, the Singapore government has continuously adjusted its epidemic prevention policies in line with the changes in the epidemic. On 15 March 2022, the Singapore government announced that social control measures will be further relaxed and Singapore will enter the final stage of its coexistence plan with COVID-19. The South China Morning Post reported that Huang Xuncai, as one of the joint leaders of the government's cross-departmental working group on anti-epidemic, is considered to be a key figure in Singapore's smooth response to the epidemic crisis.

At the most severe moment of the epidemic in Singapore, Huang Xuncai also showed full empathy for the suffering of the people, so as to gain public appreciation. According to lianhe Zaobao, on March 25, 2020, Huang Xuncai choked for nearly three minutes when he shared the "anti-epidemic journey of the whole people" in Congress. One comment described: "People who shed tears for Singaporeans are people they can trust." ”

The analysis pointed out that it was Huang Xuncai's popularity in the private sector that allowed him to overcome the hostility of the people to the policy of increasing the value-added tax, so that he could smoothly promote this fiscal reform.

"Since his debut in politics in the 2011 election, Huang has had to prove himself in front of all the '4G leaders' who entered politics at almost the same time. He has been a long-time leader in dealing with the pandemic and the economic crisis, thus more or less proving his ability as a national leader. This is exactly how the Papa selects candidates based on rules set by Lee Kuan Yew. The process by which Huang Xuncai was selected was meticulously laid out. Alan Zhong analyzed.

How to "take the baton"?

In fact, not everyone agrees that Huang Xuncai is the most suitable candidate for future prime minister. Xu Wenyuan stressed that 15 of the 19 members of the Singapore government's decision-making team chose the current Finance Minister, Huang Xuncai, as the leader of the "4G", which far exceeded the "absolute majority". Analysts, however, point out that this suggests a certain divide within the ruling party; it is not so much a reflection of Huang Xuncai's widespread recognition as it is a reflection of the PAP's changing political style – the selection process is now more robust, open and inclusive than in the past.

Huang Xuncai may also need to go through the test of the general election. On the 16th, Lee Hsien Loong said at the press conference that he hoped to "hand over the baton" as soon as possible, but he must also carefully complete the process of power transfer; the timing of the next general election will be one of the factors to consider. Lee Hsien Loong stressed that he would discuss with Wong The most appropriate election and handover arrangements.

According to reports, the next National Election in Singapore will have to be held by 23 November 2025 at the latest. Lee Hsien Loong said on April 16 that in any case, as long as the Papa wins the next election, Huang Xuncai will become the new prime minister.

In the 13th Singapore general election, which ended on 10 July 2020, although the Papa won the election and remained in power, its vote and seats declined, and Lee Hsien Loong admitted that the election result was not as good as expected. Lianhe Zaobao commented that the 2020 general election reflects that Singaporeans' expectations of parliamentary diversity exceed the impact of the new crown epidemic. Lan Ping'er, a senior researcher at the Institute of East Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, said that Singapore may open a "two-party system" model.

Commenting on the results of the 2020 Singapore election, Donald Low, a former associate dean of The Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and now a professor of practice in the Faculty of Public Policy Studies at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said the pandemic had revealed that Singaporeans had become suspicious of the country's elite governance model: Singapore needed not only a strong, competent elite government, but also a "strong society".

Alan Chung also noted that the LEADERS elected by the Papa should have the ability to deal with both civil society and the private sector.

According to comprehensive media reports, Huang Xuncai often shows his guitar skills in front of the public, tells the story of parents and families, shares pets and life moments, and has created a pro-people image, which has the evaluation of "grassroots among the elite". Looking to the future, can Huang Xuncai cope with multiple challenges in Singapore's domestic and foreign affairs and successfully take over the post of Singapore's prime minister? It remains to be seen.

Responsible editor: Hu Zhenqing Photo editor: Jiang Lidong

Proofreader: Ding Xiao