Image source @ Visual China
| analysys analysis
A few days ago, Liu Qihong's Douyin live broadcast reached a maximum of 4 million simultaneous viewers, and his Douyin account even achieved a daily increase of 10 million fans. In addition to live broadcasting and practicing, the "Liu Qihong Girls" also share videos and experiences through online platforms such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu. According to the hot topic released by Xiaohongshu on April 22, the topic of #Punch card Liu Qihong Aerobics # was as hot as 1520W, which was the top 2 topic of the week.
Liu Ruihong's fitness live broadcast is on fire.
A few days ago, Liu Qihong's Douyin live broadcast reached a maximum of 4 million simultaneous viewers, and his Douyin account even achieved a daily increase of 10 million fans. In addition to live broadcasting and practicing, the "Liu Qihong Girls" also share videos and experiences through online platforms such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu. According to the hot topic released by Xiaohongshu on April 22, the topic of #Punch card Liu Qihong Aerobics # was as hot as 1520W, which was the top 2 topic of the week.
From Pamela to Liu Ruihong, under the repeated promotion of fitness KOLs, home fitness is not a new thing. Coupled with the catalysis of the epidemic, I can't go out, I can't go to the gym but I want to exercise, and home fitness has become the best choice for many people at present.
So, is home fitness a good scenario? How much potential is there in this market?
How big is the home fitness market?
The huge population base and the national fitness-related policies that have been proposed in recent years, the sports industry and the number of people who regularly participate in sports are all rising. According to the 14th Five-Year Plan, the total scale of the mainland sports industry will reach 5 trillion yuan in 2025. According to the data disclosed in the "Healthy China 2030" Planning Outline, the number of people who regularly participate in physical exercise in the mainland will reach 435 million in 2020.
Focusing on the track of home fitness, online channels have become an important part of it.
According to a report issued by China Insight Consulting, as of 2021, the size of China's fitness market will reach 786.6 billion yuan, of which the online fitness market accounts for 47%. At the same time, according to its estimates, the online fitness market will account for more than the offline fitness market in 2022, and the online fitness market will account for more than 60% by 2026.
Judging from the penetration data, mainland online fitness has rapidly become popular after 2016. According to the China Insight Consulting report, the penetration rate of online fitness population in mainland China will reach 45.5% in 2021, compared with 67.9% in the United States. It is estimated that by 2026, the penetration rate of China's online fitness population will reach 57.4%.
While the scale of the fitness market is growing, the proportion of the online fitness market is gradually increasing, and it is expected to surpass offline channels. In addition, the continuous increase in penetration rate also indicates that online fitness will become one of the mainstream fitness channels.
The epidemic has also accelerated the development of online fitness, and the number of active people in the sports health industry has fluctuated since 2019. According to Analysys Qianfan data, at the end of 2019, the end of 2020, the summer of 2021 and the just-concluded March, there was a small peak in the number of active people in the sports health industry.
Judging from the March data, sports health apps still rank first in the entire health field, and the number of active people in March increased by 11.31% month-on-month. At the same time, the number of active people in health management and mental health APP also increased month-on-month.
Home fitness track: brand platform competing for layout
Home fitness has become increasingly common after the epidemic, and a long industrial chain has been extended from content platforms to smart devices.
Liu Qihong, Pamela and other sports experts, fitness KOLs as content providers, through the douyin, Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu, B station and other content platforms and keep and other fitness apps, so that users can easily watch at home through mobile phones. At the same time, keep and other professional apps that focus on fitness have become increasingly mainstream, smart devices such as fitness bracelets have gradually become popular, and fitness equipment such as cordless jump rope and yoga mats suitable for indoor sports has become more concerned, which has also become a link in the industrial chain of home fitness.
It has to be admitted that under the current trend of socialization and content of the whole network, the entire sports industry ecology has begun to reorganize. Analysys believes that cloud scenario-based fitness continues to reduce the threshold of residents' exercise and enhance professionalism. Content-based, e-commerce-based, social, and interactive integrated platforms will gradually dominate after industrial restructuring.
As a content platform, the content of home fitness has long become a common content section.
During the epidemic in 2020, Douyin has launched the "Douyin Gym" activity, and Kuaishou has also launched the "Living Room Gym". In August 2020, Pamela successively entered domestic platforms such as Little Red Book and Keep and received a lot of attention. According to the "2022 Qiangua Active User Portrait Trend Report (Xiaohongshu Platform)" released by Qiangua Data, the amount of grass planted at home fitness equipment has also surged.
As a brand side, home fitness has also become a layout direction.
In June 2020, Lululemon spent $500 million to acquire Mirarror, a maker of smart fitness equipment, in an attempt to break into the home fitness field, and its main product is interactive home fitness mirrors. Keep's self-operated products also focus on the scene of home fitness, in addition to the launch of home equipment such as treadmills, Keep sports equipment also includes ropeless jump rope, yoga mats, multi-functional training boards, and smart bracelets that match its content products.
The "traffic carnival" can be copied, but the company is not so easy to monetize
Through the form of live broadcasting, which brought up a "traffic carnival", Liu Ruihong was not the first.
Li Jiaqi, the head anchor who became popular by live broadcasting, was jokingly called the combination of "people and money" by netizens together with Liu Qihong, who became popular in this live broadcast fitness. In March, The Live Broadcast of TudiMusic became a large-scale "cloud bungee" scene in the circle of friends due to the influx of millions of Shanghai netizens who were closed at home.
In recent years, there have been many such "traffic carnivals", and behind the phenomenon, not all companies can rely on traffic to successfully monetize. At least the money for home fitness is much more difficult to earn than live streaming.
The scene of home fitness had been widely concerned when Keep submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at the end of February. Although whether it is popularity, app daily active or paid members, Keep can be used as the head representative of this segment, and the slightly embarrassing financial data also shows the difficulty of its profitability - more than two years of loss of more than 5 billion, once accused of being a "bloody IPO".
Analysys analysis believes that only from the perspective of content platforms, compared with comprehensive platforms covering many industries and fields such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu, vertical platforms such as Keep are more likely to be "hit by dimensionality reduction".
Similar to the development path of e-commerce, liquor e-commerce and beauty e-commerce, which focus on vertical categories, have disappeared in the past few years of development. If you can't be more refined and more specialized, it is difficult to break through the "encirclement" of the expanding comprehensive e-commerce platform. The same is true for content platforms, for professional platforms such as Keep, relying on a more professional and in-depth direction can create competitive barriers for them, but it also requires high investment in the short term.
For comprehensive platforms, home fitness-related content is only one of the content segments for these platforms, and does not affect its core profit model. Relying on a large number of free content to attract the vast majority of customers, according to the current hot spots and trends to consciously promote the formation of hot spots, is only a means to keep the community content active, Liu Qihong's complete popularity may also hitch a ride on the "push flow".
While bloggers and KOLs individuals who have become popular with fitness labels may have benefits, it is still difficult to make a profit from the perspective of companies and business models. Most of the profit models of bloggers have not yet jumped out of the conventional category of Internet celebrity KOLs such as advertising revenue and commercial cooperation, and it is still difficult to achieve profitability through the course content itself, and the number of customers who will watch and use free content and actually pay for home fitness is still very different.
Lululemon's infusion of home fitness product, Mirror, also didn't deliver more than expected returns. In the third quarter of 2021, Lululemon lowered Mirror's sales forecast from a range of $250 million to $275 million to $125 million to $130 million. Breaking into this track through smart devices for home fitness doesn't look like a good business that has been proven by the market.
Analysys believes that in essence, Although Lululemon is different from other clothing brands, it has not yet jumped out of the category of retail brands. Relying on its unique playing style of popularity, expanding into the field of home fitness, although it seems that the imagination is huge, it is also risky.
It is worth mentioning that Lululemon lowered Mirror's sales forecast on the day of the release of last year's third quarter report, from a range of 250 million to 275 million US dollars to between 125 and 130 million US dollars. Lululemon also unveiled its new five-year growth plan, and according to media reports, some analysts saw its $500 million acquisition of Mirror as a potential headwind.
Who can successfully "separate" the cake of home fitness? We will also continue to pay attention.