Apple's market value climbs to $3 trillion, and there is a "hot" forecast

Author 丨 Jiang Yue

Editor 丨he Jia

Figure Source 丨 Xinhua News Agency

Apple's market capitalization is climbing toward $3 trillion, what new products can spur stock prices up this year? Recently, Apple confirmed that it will hold a "Global Developer Conference" from June 6 to 10, when it will be synchronized with the release of new summer products. The iPhone SE, which was just launched in the spring, has the news of a large-scale "cut order", will the summer conference reverse the decline in sales?

Veteran Apple Chain analysts believe Apple may unveil the tip of the iceberg in the "metaverse" product line, including revealing some news about augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) software. But the news said that Apple is unlikely to launch "meta-universe" hardware in 2022.

The Metaverse software is exciting

According to the convention, Apple will announce some major software updates on June 6, covering a full range of products such as mobile phones, computers, iPads, watches, TVs, and speakers. This year, people are especially looking forward to the "meta-universe" related software as soon as possible, because many channels have pointed out that Apple is working hard to develop a "meta-universe" headset that combines AR and VR.

As in previous years, apple is thought to be updating the "family barrel" products one by one. This year, people are paying more attention to whether the iPad can better integrate with the computer, and whether the watch can improve the activity recording function. Although software is generally difficult to stimulate people's consumption nerves, "fruit fans" still believe that software helps improve the productivity of hardware, which helps Apple maintain its huge ecosystem.

Because it accounts for more than half of Apple's revenue, mobile phones are still Apple's most well-known products for consumers, and the software iOS on the mobile phone side has attracted attention. Sources say the code name for the next generation of iOS 16 will be "Sydney". Predictors say that people hope to use mobile phones more integrated with iPads and Macs, and also hope that mobile phones can have more resonance with smart watches. Therefore, market forecasts indicate that Apple may update health management software, end-to-end interface design, etc.

However, the more "blockbuster" predictions point out that Apple may bring some news about augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) software. At the beginning of the year, the news close to the supply chain channel also said that Apple will launch an AR headset as soon as the end of 2022, but in recent months, there has been news that this product will be postponed until 2023.

In any case, if the "metacosm" is Apple's arrow on the string, then WWDC in June is very likely to give people a preview of the relevant software. Some Observers of Apple Chain said that the software abbreviation used on headsets would be rOS. In addition, the iOS 16 beta may also include features that allow the phone to interact with the headset.

WWDC is not a "software-only conference," and Apple is likely to launch some new hardware. Among them, the 13-inch Macbook Pro may usher in a new model. In recent years, people are full of expectations for new computer hardware products on WWDC, because it is in WWDC in 2020 that Apple announced that it will replace Intel products with self-developed processor chips on computer series products.

The Worldwide Developers Conference, referred to as the WWDC by fruit fans, is scheduled to take place this year from June 6 to 10. Affected by the epidemic, Apple will hold this meeting online for the third year, that is, to play pre-recorded videos globally in sync that night.

It is known that large events such as WWDC may have been planned half a year in advance and used large-scale budgets. If, by the time we enter June, the global COVID-19 pandemic worsens, Apple may have to announce the cancellation of offline activities a week or a few days in advance, which will mean a huge economic loss. With this factor in mind, Apple simply chose to make a decision early and still chose the less risky online model.

Still, Apple has curated an offline event that will take place in Apple Park, Apple's headquarters in Cupertino, California. The event will take place on June 6, keynote speech day, when software developers and students will be invited to Apple headquarters to watch the online synchronous video conference. In any case, the cancellation of this small event is much less costly.

In fact, Apple always holds 3 to 4 new product launches in the spring, summer, and autumn every year, and runs the sales business wholeheartedly during the Winter Christmas Season. Compared with other conferences, the summer conference is held together at WWDC, so it pays more attention to the software side than the hardware side.

The results of the second fiscal quarter are a cause for concern

On the 28th of this month, Apple is expected to issue results for the first quarter of this year, the second financial quarter of the company's fiscal year 2022. This spring following the Christmas season, Apple is unlikely to deliver higher quarterly results, and many channel sources point out that Apple's mobile phone sales in this quarter are not too good, and the new iPhone SE just launched in March has also suffered a "cut order".

In the previous quarter, from October to December last year, the iPhone 13 series became a popular gift at Christmas, and the hot sales led Apple to create a total revenue of $123.945 billion that quarter. For January-March of this year, market analysts currently believe that quarterly revenue could reach around $94 billion.

There are many signs that are leading market analysts to "look down" on Apple's second fiscal quarter results. Among them, according to the documents disclosed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 5, Apple's chief operating officer Jeffery E. Williams and Senior Vice President of Retail and Human Resources Deirdre O'Brien sold a total of 135,100 shares of Apple stock. Usually, executives' stock sale cash is regarded by the market as "bearish" news.

In addition, Guo Mingxi, an analyst at Tianfeng International, who is known for repeatedly predicting Apple's new products, said at the end of March that iPhone SE sales may not be as expected, slashing the annual shipments of the iPhone SE this year from 25 million to 30 million to 15 million to 20 million. Some market analysis echoed that apple had to revise down its 2022 mobile phone sales forecast due to the regional sales closure caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the surge in inflation that hit consumer electronics demand.

So will the 2022 iPhone continue to boost Apple's stock price? In fact, the upward cycle of Apple's mobile phone products has lasted for three years, especially when the iPhone 13 series was launched, which can be called a highlight in history. According to Counterpoint data, Apple accounted for 7 of the top 10 mobile phones in the world in 2021.

However, when the time comes to 2022, the size of the annual cycle of iPhone sales may also have an inflection point. After a wave of sales upward cycle in the big year, it is followed by a wave of low tide in the small year. In 2021, Apple sold 239 million iPhones worldwide, where will there be so much replacement and upgrade demand in 2022? Especially with the epidemic environment, geopolitics, and inflation factors like this year, the probability of demand contraction will increase. In other words, consumers may hold their wallets tight and no longer pay for premiums that are unnecessary and less practical.

Will there be some positive news to boost Apple's stock price? Recently, it has also been reported that Apple is preparing to launch subscription services for hardware such as iPhones and iPads, and users will be able to obtain the right to use devices in the form of monthly subscription fees, and support the acquisition of the latest devices. This may spur the most loyal "fruit powder" to pay for high-priced products.

Editor of this issue: Xueying Liu, Intern Kailin Li