In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles doubled, but the shortage of stockpiling of enterprises under the epidemic still needs to be solved

On April 11, according to data from the Federation, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in mainland China reached 445,000 units in March, an increase of 137.6% year-on-year and 63.1% month-on-month, which was better than the trend in March of the calendar year. Based on this calculation, new energy vehicle sales in March have accounted for more than 28% of all passenger car sales. The sales growth momentum of new energy vehicles is obvious. However, as the epidemic has affected the supply of parts since March, the growth of new energy vehicle production and sales in April may usher in challenges.

For the domestic retail sales data of new energy vehicles in March, the Association pointed out that the price increase of electric vehicles in 2022 is relatively rational, and the impact of the current two rounds of new energy vehicle price increases is not obvious for the time being.

First of all, because the sales model of new energy vehicles is order sales, at present, there are more orders before the price increase in the hands of various car companies, resulting in the basic digestion of pre-orders in March and April; secondly, the advantages of new energy due to high oil prices have increased.

The third reason is that the rigid demand of consumers of new energy vehicles is stronger, and the price sensitivity is relatively low; the fourth reason is that the order price lock before the price increase of new energy vehicles is locked, forming the result of the lock price of early booking, triggering more consumers to rationally or follow the trend of booking a new situation.

Although the current market feedback is better, from the production side, the next new energy vehicle industry data is not optimistic.

"Affected by the epidemic in Changchun and Hebei, we cut off some parts in mid-March, relying on some parts inventory to barely support until last week." Recently, there have been epidemics in Shanghai and Jiangsu, and many partners cannot supply goods and can only suspend production. On April 9, Li Bin, CEO of NIO, left a message in the NIO Auto User App to explain the reasons for the suspension of production of NIO. On the same day, Weilai Automobile released news that the production of the whole vehicle has been suspended, and the delivery of many users' vehicles will be delayed in the near future.

"A car can't produce a single part." Li Bin said that he also revealed that the situation of parts suppliers stopping production and cutting off supply is not only Weilai, "many manufacturers have suspended production." ”

From the information revealed by Li Bin, it can be seen that the spare parts inventory of Weilai Automobile can only support the production of about half a month, and this situation is more common for automobile manufacturers, and under the influence of the epidemic, the problem of insufficient stockpiling of car companies is prominent.

In this regard, Zhang Ruifeng, secretary general of the Guangdong Greater Bay Area New Energy Automobile Industry Technology Innovation Alliance, said in an interview with Nandu reporter that because domestic car companies are affected by the management thinking of Toyota Motor's lean production, most companies adopt a production mode of low inventory or even zero inventory, but once the supply of components in a supply chain is insufficient, it is easy to produce a chain reaction of suspension of production.

For example, Zhang Ruifeng said that BYD, Changan Ford and GAC Trumpchi all have important production bases in relevant epidemic prevention areas such as Hangzhou; parts companies such as Vientiane, Asia-Pacific Electromechanical, and Sinotruk Hangfa also have major factories in Xiaoshan District, plus Wenzhou, Jinhua, Ningbo, etc. in Zhejiang Province are also important towns in the automotive industry, and once the epidemic in Hangzhou worsens, it may aggravate the pressure on the automotive supply chain in Zhejiang Province.

Guangqi Honda, GAC Toyota, Eian, Trumpchi, Dongfeng Nissan and other factories in Guangzhou may also face the impact of the epidemic, such as the surrounding Foshan, Zhaoqing, Dongguan, Jiangmen and other places also have Volkswagen, Xiaopeng and other car companies and supply chain enterprises factories, if the impact of the epidemic continues, it will also bring challenges to the production of automobiles in these places.

Market research data show that the mainland auto parts industry mainly accompanies the development of OEMs and forms clusters. The country's 6 major industrial clusters are distributed in 11 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and the output value of auto parts accounts for about 80% of the country. Among them, Changchun in Jilin Province, Shenyang in Liaoning Province, Hebei, Hubei, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Guangdong are all important suppliers of auto parts. Since the beginning of this year, many of the above places have been repeatedly affected by the epidemic.

From the perspective of comprehensive market and production, the current domestic new energy vehicle industry is facing the situation of insufficient production and supply due to the climbing of market demand, which is also the reason for the general price increase of new energy vehicle products.

In this regard, Zhang Ruifeng believes that the development trend of new energy vehicles has changed from a policy-driven period to a demand-driven period, which has been recognized by the public and the market is improving. However, after crossing the stage of moving towards the public, new energy vehicles will face a series of problems in the future.

He believes that the future development of the new energy automobile industry needs to "guarantee two ends and one chain", that is, the upstream end guarantees raw materials, chips, and software systems, and the downstream end provides guarantee for user use, and also ensures the strategic reserve of the supply chain and the smooth flow of transportation.

Zhang Ruifeng believes that the automobile industry needs to have strategies corresponding to epidemic prevention and control, and should build supply guarantee warehouses and do a good job of distributed material reserves. Considering that many new energy vehicle companies are still in a state of loss, allowing enterprises to increase inventory may further increase the financial pressure of enterprises, and this reserve construction may need to be promoted by the government or third-party institutions.

Zhang Ruifeng said that he was concerned about the recent release of the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified National Large Market" and suggested that the automotive industry chain could be tried first. He suggested that a coordination mechanism of complementarity, coordination and linkage of central and local reserves can be built from the perspective of their respective functional positioning, reserve materials and operating mechanisms.

Comprehensively consider the differentiation of reserve varieties, the diversification of reserve products, the dislocation of reserve layout, the differentiation of reserve function positioning, and the diversification of reserve rotation, strengthen the coordination and linkage between the state and localities, form a joint force of regulation and control, and improve the overall efficiency of reserves. Through the establishment of a reasonable enterprise reserve mechanism, explore more market-oriented means to improve the enthusiasm of enterprises, and realize the organic combination of government reserves and corporate social responsibility reserves.

Producer: Nandu Kechuang Studio

Written by: Nandu reporter Xu Jincong