Automotive electronics industry exchange minutes

Divided into four main sections:

1. How many mcUs are used in the car?

2. The current situation of the industry, overseas giants are still leading the trend, and the domestic general is infiltrating with GM as the entry point

3. Supply and demand are tight, and the price increase of overseas manufacturers has brought a good window of opportunity to domestic manufacturers.

4. Related upstream foundries, supporting storage companies.

1.MCU is the use of automotive electronic electronic control, at least one piece, the same dimension, a fuel car 70, luxury accounted for more than a hundred, smart car 300 (Bluetooth, seat comfort, etc.) intelligent electrification will bring an increase to the number of MCU in the car.

At least until 2025, smart cars will increase the amount of MCUs, and after 2025, they will replace low-end MCUs with centralized control

Electrification, battery management systems, power control systems, completely new demand, a large battery pack with a lot of small packages of control of mcUs

A large battery pack has many small packs that need to be mcu

Penetration:

By 2025 at L1 L2 to 50%, L3 L4 L5 accounts for 20%

With more than 10 million vehicles in China and more than 20 million vehicles internationally, the overall car company MCUs will achieve rapid growth.

The 8-bit MCU is mainly some simple controls (window lift, turf, engine, etc.) for 1-5 DOLLARs

From a price point of view, intelligent intelligent hardware will make the proportion of 32-bit high MCUs increase,

32-bit MCUs for car media control, etc., single (5-10 USD or more)

Intelligence brings about the increase in the amount of MCUs, the global MCU accounts for 20 billion yuan, the car is 78 billion US dollars, the domestic 40-5 billion US dollars, the car accounts for 15%.

Global MCUs are growing by about 8%.

2. Domestic manufacturers

The proportion of domestic manufacturers is low, the application scale is also low, the proportion of automobiles is 20% (40% of the international), and MCUs are more used in consumer electronics.

Now it is mainly led by four overseas companies, and the overall total of the others is basically about 10%.

This is also the case in China, and the manufacturers of domestic MCUs will gradually rise up through the car regulation standards, partly depending on the customer's progress and their own development

Another aspect depends on the price increases of global manufacturers

3. Supply and demand are tight

At this time last year, a report was issued, upstream supply and downstream demand judged the overall situation and trend,

At the end of the delivery period, the chain is relatively long, some of the MCU itself produced, there are also through the foundry, the largest foundry is TSMC.

There will be some links in the delivery of downstream OEMs, dealers, OEMs

Since 2021, many manufacturers have raised prices many times, one or two times every quarter, but by the beginning of 22 years to date, in addition to the original supply and demand tension, there are raw material price increases, etc., affected by the epidemic and the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, so now many manufacturers have raised their prices (10-15%). The price increase at the delivery end is relatively high, Fukang Electronics, Positive Energy Electronics, the channel segment sees that there is a tendency to increase prices in the second half of last year, the price of the channel segment has risen three or four times or even to ten times, and this delivery period has been extended longer, one is about 10 weeks, and now to about 30-50 weeks, the second half of the consumer electronics slowdown, but the car still has a high boom.

Now there are also checks on the stockpiling of dealers, 22 years there have been ups and downs, the delivery period is elongated, and the price tends to be stable.

Automakers will have a lot of orders to MCU original factory and channel end, coupled with logistics materials, the channel side will be magnified in the price increase, the delivery time is also extended

Automotive electronics demand is relatively high and consumer electronics is slightly weaker, from the structure to see the demand for automobiles

The price of automotive risk control products is relatively firm, and the domestic price increase is lower than that of foreign countries, and the overall convergence

The price of high-end products is also relatively firm

At both ends of supply and demand, there are many factories at the manufacturing end that do it themselves and do it themselves in the idm factory, and there are also commissions external TSMC, Texas Instruments, etc. to do it

Overall conclusion: Many of the automotive MCUs are eight-inch wafer lines and relatively mature production lines, and a large part of them are redistributed to make up for the gap

Eight inches are a lot of relatively mature old equipment, not so much supply of second-hand equipment.

At present, the result of combing down is that the expansion of production is relatively not active, and many are still expanding 12 inches, advanced manufacturing, power-related production capacity

This is the reason why the car MCU is out of stock.

Demand side: The epidemic began to be relatively weak at the beginning of the 21st year, and then began to pick up, and now the production and sales of the epidemic in Shanghai at the beginning of the year may have a certain impact.

The demand for the iterative purchase of high-end cars in the follow-up is still relatively strong, and many car manufacturers have reduced production due to the lack of chips (Volkswagen, Ford, Toyota, GM, etc.)

BMW will also reduce the allocation of delivery (cancel some intelligent functions) From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply and demand tension has been continuing, and it has been slowly recovering since 2022

The overall supply of automobiles is still very tight, there are some domestic manufacturers can make up, vehicles, supporting, and other related industries of domestic supply companies still have great prospects.

Auto MCU from the perspective of listing, Gigabit Innovation, Core Sea Technology

Gigabit Innovation: Now it is the first manufacturer of MCU in China (shipments, high performance, technology, and degree of high-end products)

Compared with the car layout is slightly late, characterized by consumer electronics, in two years to force the car, last year MCU shipments of 400 million

This year is expected to be 700-800 million, this year's car specification MCU in the middle of the year mass production, the second half of this year can see the car regulation MCU revenue contribution.

There are also key car companies (Changan) in China that use MCU of Gigabit Innovation

Domestic Competitors (J&F Technology)

Jiefa, XinWangwei is a chip from the beginning, and GigaDev has the guarantee of past shipments. Word of mouth and market have verified

The car rules also have a relatively long experience, the company's strategy behind the high-end tilt, it is expected that next year the industrial end of the application will begin to release, the car front equipment will also be forced

There is also the simulation and sensing business, the first two years of fingerprint recognition market cold so it has been under some pressure. However, there are relatively good basic reserves, and it is necessary to wait for market demand to be released later.

This year the company is simulating hiring, and we expect it to become a new growth point. In terms of long-term space, it can become one of the few domestic countries that can enter international competitiveness

Valuation is very attractive.

Core Sea Technology

The company has technical advantages in ADC (touch conversion chip), on the basis of ADC with MCU, core sea car specification products launched in 21 years

This year, 420 million yuan was raised through convertible bonds, which were used in the automotive MCU chip industrialization project, and the m and r series were planned to be used in the field of in-vehicle control and pre-control

It is expected to usher in a rapid introduction of automobiles. Benefits Overall Industry Out of Stock and Substitution

This year we expect a net profit of around 200 million

Industrial ADC continues to import customers and is more competitive

In addition to MCU manufacturers, there are also capacity bottlenecks, OEM on SMIC, it is recommended to focus on China Resources Semiconductor (to return to a share)

It is expected that the fundraising will be completed next year, and the market value of 150 billion is estimated at 25%, which will raise about 40-50 billion yuan, which will triple the company's net assets and open up the subsequent growth space

The company began using loan reserve funds to expand production (winery) last year.

Expansion and NFT (12 inches for $1500), according to the current trend of the product mix, it is not difficult to raise it to 1300 against other technology companies

Profits are expected to improve and fundamentals are good

SMIC is not expensive, and follow-up attention is paid to equipment and localization

Car memory chip, paired with MCU. The future growth space is relatively large, and the valuation of the entire company is not high.

Q: What is the gross profit margin of MCU this year, and is the upstream cost pressure?

From an annual point of view, compared with last year, it is relatively stable, and the cost in the first quarter has also increased (TSMC)

GigaDevice had an average price of 4 yuan before the price increase in 21 years, with a gross profit margin of about 40%, and last year it rose sharply, with an average price of 7 yuan gross margin to 70%

The cost side of the first quarter of this year increased a little, but the gross profit margin is unlikely to return to the previous level of 40%.

We feel that the gross margin this year is between 50-60%, which may be worse than last year's average

The back mainly focuses on the original price, the first two weeks of the price increase is a price increase at the cost end, so it is not ruled out that the price will rise later.

Q: Is supply a problem?

Not too problematic, 40nm and 28nm will be placed in TSMC to do

Gigabit MCU production capacity is placed in other manufacturers

Will be more relaxed than last year

Q: How much has the production capacity of Core Sea Technology increased? What is the proportion of MCUs? DMS revenue? Does Shanghai foundry have an impact?

Nothing big impact, working properly, but closed only in and out. The possibility of impact is relatively small, and the pace of logistics shipments may be delayed

DMS We expect to have a hundred million revenue (from Xiaomi) with a portion of dms coming from Core Sea

Now there is a power battery research and development team, which can contribute a hundred million revenue.

Q: What is the progress of Yangtze River storage?

The Yangtze River is stored in Apple's side to verify, and it is hoped that the long-term memory chip will enter Apple in the future

Prices and balances from suppliers are advantageous for long-term storage

Long-term storage is also expanding production, and it is estimated that it will reach the level of 100,000 pieces next year

The later pull on the device will also be faster