Author 丨 Gu Yan
"Believe in the future!"
At 23:00 on the evening of March 22, Beijing time, Tesla Berlin Gigafactory held a short and grand groundbreaking ceremony. Tesla CEO Elon Musk made good on his promise to personally deliver the first 30 Model Ys to users. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Economy Minister Robert Hubeck attended the groundbreaking ceremony.
Musk spoke to thank all those involved in the construction of the plant, saying that he would use the Berlin factory to "do the right thing": "Tesla will make sure that this is a treasure of the region, Germany and the world." ”
He re-emphasized that "every car built will move towards a sustainable energy future" where electric vehicles, solar and wind energy, and batteries for energy storage can solve the problem of climate change, and the Berlin Gigafactory is a "big step" towards that goal.
After 28 months, Tesla's first gigafactory in Europe has finally opened a new chapter.
The Berlin factory struggled to advance
Compared with the Shanghai Gigafactory, which was completed and put into operation in 10 months, the construction of Tesla's Berlin factory is long and tortuous.
In November 2019, Musk announced that it would invest 5 billion euros to open a fourth gigafactory in Greenhead, just outside Berlin, with plans to start construction in 2020 and production by July 1, 2021.
In July 2020, Musk wrote on his personal social media that "the Berlin Gigafactory is rising up at an almost impossible speed."
But this is not the case. From the very beginning of the Berlin Gigafactory, problems have been pouring in.
In early 2020, the Berlin factory needed to cut down more than 2,000 acres of forest land, which was protested by local environmentalists. This is far from Tesla's vision of "accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy" and is ironic.
But then Tesla got court approval, first cutting down 92 hectares of trees and then cutting down another 82.8 hectares. Musk also tweeted promising to plant trees three times the amount of trees cut down.
Later, because there was an endangered species of bat living in the forest where the factory was located, Tesla had to wait until the local nature conservancy had finished moving the bats before it could start construction.
In March 2020, Tesla's Berlin plant will continue to push back delivery due to water supply pressure. In April, Tesla had to modify its foundation due to soil problems, resulting in another shutdown of the Berlin factory.
In October, Evan Horetsky, head of construction engineering at Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory, was fired, and Tesla's Berlin plant faced internal and external difficulties.
On December 18, some of the construction work at Tesla's Berlin plant in Germany was halted due to failure to pay a 100 million euro deposit to the local (Brandenburg) government on time.
Subject to multiple factors such as the government, animal protection organizations, and environmentalists, the Berlin Gigafactory in Germany cost nearly 5 billion euros and finally obtained the final operating approval of the factory on March 4, 2022.
Just before and after the groundbreaking ceremony of the Berlin Gigafactory, there were still voices of protest from animal protection and environmentalists.
Tesla's production capacity dilemma
The commissioning of the Berlin Gigafactory will be a very important milestone for Tesla.
"By 2030, Tesla will achieve its goal of 20 million vehicles per year." Musk has said publicly.
According to Tesla's 2021 financial report, Tesla deliveries increased by 87% last year, creating a record delivery of about 940,000 vehicles. In addition, the annualized production capacity under the efficiency of the fourth quarter of last year has exceeded 1.22 million units.
But Tesla is still trapped by capacity issues.
Tesla currently operates 6 factories and 1 planned plant, but until the construction of the Gigafactory in Berlin, Germany, only the Gigafactory in Fremont, San Francisco, and the Shanghai Gigafactory in China can provide stable production capacity as a vehicle gigafactory.
In 2021, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory delivered 484,130 units, accounting for 51.7% of global deliveries. In recent quarters, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has been responsible for the supply of Tesla products in China, as well as the production of European product demand.
Last year, Tesla sold 93,545 units in 11 European countries. But in order to meet the delivery of the European market, the capacity of the Shanghai Gigafactory is mainly export-oriented in the first half of each quarter.
In May 2021, the Shanghai plant produced more than 34,000 Model 3/Y units, and in addition to 22,000 units sold to Chinese consumers, more than 11,000 Model 3s were supplied overseas; in August, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory exported 31,379 units; by January this year, this number became 40,499.
This has led to repeated delays in Tesla's delivery time in the Chinese market. On the official website, the expected delivery time of the Model Y Standard Edition is 10-14 weeks, and the Model 3 is 20-24 weeks.
Moreover, if these vehicles are shipped overseas from the Shanghai factory, the transportation cost will increase accordingly. The establishment of the Berlin Gigafactory means tesla can deliver cars to European customers faster and cheaper.
The Berlin Gigafactory was pinned on high hopes. According to Musk's plan, the Berlin Gigafactory will be dominated by electric vehicle production lines, supplemented by battery production, and is expected to reach a maximum annual production capacity of 500,000 vehicles.
European electric vehicle market
Since the Berlin factory in Germany can only produce Model Y in the early stage, this means that the European market will still rely on the support of the Shanghai Gigafactory for a short time.
In fact, the first "Made in Germany" Model Y delivered at the launch ceremony was equipped with 2170 batteries supplied from the Shanghai factory. The Berlin plant is expected to start production of the 4680 battery in the second half of the year.
However, the start of the Berlin Gigafactory will indeed ease the pressure on Tesla's Shanghai factory, and will further increase Tesla's production capacity and increase its competitive chips in the European market.
According to the data, in 2021, the sales of electric vehicles in Europe exceeded 1.2 million. Among them, the Tesla Model 3 is the best-selling electric vehicle in Europe.
But that doesn't mean Tesla can ride the pack in Europe.
Driven by high-intensity policies, Norway has the highest penetration rate of electric vehicles in Europe, and in January 2022, Norwegian electric vehicle sales accounted for 90.5% of total vehicle sales.
Among the new car manufacturing forces, BYD and NIO have entered the European market. At the end of September 2021, NIO began delivery in Norway. According to the official website of NIO, it has set up three points in Europe: the global styling design center in Munich, Germany, the global limit and forward-looking concept research and development center in Oxford, England, and the Norwegian company Oslo.
Tesla maintained an overall market share of 6.5 percent in California and 2.1 percent in the U.S. for the full year 2021. But it is worth noting that in January this year, Tesla did not enter the top 20 car sales in Norway.
This is reportedly mainly due to insufficient vehicle supply. The launch of the Berlin Gigafactory will increase Tesla's production capacity in the European market.
On the other hand, Europe is the home base of traditional car companies. According to the "Deep Web", European users are more loyal to traditional European brands. According to the statistics of data agency Jato Dynamics, among the top ten car brands in Europe in 2021, there are only three foreign brands.
At present, european traditional car companies have accelerated the transformation and expansion of the field of electric vehicles. Volkswagen Group, for example, although the sales performance of electric vehicles in China is mediocre, but the market share of electric vehicles in Europe has reached 25%. There are reports that in Germany, one in every five pure electric vehicles is a Volkswagen.
Building a factory in Berlin and entering the hinterland of the "BBA", Tesla's move is considered a bold disturbance, and it has also been ridiculed by some netizens as "Banmen axe".
"Economy cars have to be produced on the continent where the consumer is." After the launch of Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, Musk said. The production of the Shanghai Gigafactory once saved Tesla's stock price and boosted Tesla's sales in China, while the "localized" Tesla price was also more favorable.
Now, Tesla Berlin Gigafactory started, after reducing costs, increasing production capacity, shortening the delivery cycle, can it greatly increase the sales of Model Y, help Tesla smoothly expand the European market, and create another sales miracle? We will wait and see.
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