On March 21, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released data showing that from January to February 2022, the overall shipment volume of the domestic mobile phone market was 47.9 million units, down 22.6% year-on-year, and the overall shipment in February was 14.9 million units, down 31.7% year-on-year. The decline in the peak consumption season is quite unusual, experts believe that in recent years, the mobile phone field innovation is insufficient, it is difficult to stimulate consumer purchases, while hardware innovation is facing bottlenecks, in the future, in addition to more radical hardware upgrades, to achieve hardware interconnection, build ecology or a way out.
Sales decline failed to "open the door"
On March 21, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released data showing that from January to February 2022, the overall shipment volume of the domestic mobile phone market was 47.9 million units, down 22.6% year-on-year, and the overall shipment in February was 14.9 million units, down 31.7% year-on-year. In fact, in January this year, domestic mobile phone shipments have shown a downward trend, down 17.7% year-on-year, and 5G mobile phones have dropped by 3.5% year-on-year.
The decline in mobile phone shipments is not unrelated to the "difficult production" of new models. Data show that from January to February 2022, a total of 59 new models were listed, down 27.2% year-on-year, of which 30 were 5G mobile phones, down 37.5% year-on-year. Judging from the single-month data in February, there are 29 new models of domestic mobile phones listed, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year, while 5G mobile phones are only 15 models, down 6.3% year-on-year.
The industry view is that this phenomenon is quite abnormal, usually at the beginning of the year is the peak season for mobile phone consumption. Taking 2021 as an example, in January of that year, about 40.12 million mobile phones were shipped, an increase of 92.8% year-on-year, of which 40 new models were listed, an increase of 17.6% year-on-year. The decline is also the first time since the third consecutive month of year-on-year growth.
In fact, at the beginning of this year, there is no shortage of companies that launch new models, such as Xiaomi has 12 Pro; IQOO has released 9 Pro; and OnePlus has launched 10 Pro. The new products released in the second half of 2021 also failed to "save" mobile phone sales at the beginning of the year, such as Huawei P50 Pro, iPhone 13 and so on.
"Hardware is dead" reflects a lack of innovation
For the reasons for the decline, industry experts said that the mobile phone innovation ability is insufficient, focusing only on the hardware "squeezing toothpaste" type of change, and does not seek major changes from the user's point of view, resulting in consumer boredom is the main reason.
Consumer electronics expert Xu Yiqiang pointed out: "Mobile phones as consumer electronics, as early as many years ago, the global consumer electronics market appeared "hardware is dead" sound, which shows from one side that the mobile phone as a hardware innovation space is very small, mostly concentrated in the appearance of industrial design and internal chip promotion, the ceiling has been very obvious. ”
The Snapdragon 8 Gen1 chip launched at the end of 2021 seems to confirm the expert view. The chip has a built-in octa-core Kryo CPU, and its process process has been upgraded from 5nm to 4nm. However, according to Geekbeach 5 running score data, the CPU single-core performance of snapdragon 8 Gen1 is not as good as apple A13, and the old problem of high processor energy consumption due to chip heating has not been well solved.
In addition, consumer acceptance of 5G mobile phones is also less than expected, according to IDC data, although as of the third quarter of 2021, 5G mobile phones accounted for 77% of the overall market shipments, but 4G mobile phone sales rebounded for the first time. Through the survey, it was found that many users believe that 4G and 5G are not much different to use. At the same time, the package tariff of 5G mobile phones is higher, and consumers do not have a strong demand for improving network speed, so they continue to choose 4G packages, and the situation of "5G when 4G is used" appears.
Dong Min, an expert in the field of consumer electronics, believes that the performance of mobile phones is now in a "redundant" state. Throughout the history of mobile phone innovation, the emergence of large screen, large capacity, ultra-high definition and other performance is a key node, and the current user demand for clarity has reached the "ceiling", some mobile phone screens are also too large to hold, consumers have no obvious new needs, product innovation naturally slows down, which is not only a problem in the field of mobile phones, but also a common disease of IT products, including notebooks.
Whether ecological construction can see the clouds and see the day
For the future development of mobile phones, experts believe that in the short term, more radical hardware innovation will stimulate consumers' desire to buy, and in the long run, mobile phones to achieve interconnected interaction with wearable devices and smart homes is sustainable development.
Dong Min believes that the popularity of folding screen mobile phones may be able to open the market in the short term, because this not only means that the screen size is larger, but also means the innovation of screen materials, from LCD to Mini LED, Micro LED change, the vitality of upstream manufacturers is mobilized, it is more likely to produce new products.
Domestic traditional LCD manufacturers including BOE, Huaxing Optoelectronics, Shentianma, etc., have developed Mini LED-related products or samples, BOE currently has QLED products, MTC shares, Jufei Optoelectronics, Zhuoyi Technology, etc. also have relevant technical reserves.
In addition, the popularity of wireless Bluetooth headsets, including Air Pods, in recent years can also be regarded as the early cultivation of the wearable device market, allowing users to accept more wearable devices step by step. The interconnection of mobile phones with wearable devices and smart homes is also a foreseeable development direction in the future. According to IDC data, in the next 5 years, China's smart home device market shipments will continue to increase at a compound growth rate of 21.4%, with 2021 annual shipments expected to be 230 million units, while the market shipments in 2025 will be close to 540 million units, and mobile phone manufacturers play a key role in it.
The occurrence of this change means that device interaction will be "human" at the center. Which manufacturers can give a "people-oriented" overall solution, but also as soon as possible to build their own ecology, build a moat.
Xu Yiqiang said: "The future innovation of mobile phones should jump out of the product-centric upgrade and become a breakthrough to embrace the user-centered, that is, to improve the application ability and level of mobile phones, especially in the value experience of meeting users' work and life. To put it simply, the innovation of mobile phones in the future should fall on application content and active service capabilities. ”
Beijing Business Daily reporter Jin Chaoli intern reporter Wang Zhuli Image source: China Academy of Information and Communications Technology official website
![China Academy of Information and Communications Technology: Domestic mobile phone shipments in January reached 33 million units, down 17.7% year-on-year[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)