Smart bracelet towards dusk?

Per reporter: Wang Jing Per editor: Chen Junjie

Ms. Xu has not used the smart bracelet for a long time, she feels that it is "useless", and many products in the home have been thrown into the corner to "eat ashes". This is not an isolated case. Many users on the Internet tend to have an attitude towards the bracelet: "occasionally bring it, bring it when you think of it, and don't bring it if you forget it".

Tens or hundreds of yuan "close to the people" price can record exercise, detect sleep... Once a smart bracelet drove the rapid rise of the wearable market, but after a wave of craze, the track is now heading for dusk.

According to IDC's global quarterly wearable device tracker, global wearable device shipments in the fourth quarter of 2022 fell 18.9% year-on-year to 138.7 million units. Looking at the whole year of 2022, shipments decreased by 7.7% compared to 2021, which is the first decline in shipments in this category. In China's wrist-worn device market, domestic sales in 2022 were 44.55 million units, down 13.0% y/y. Among them, the sales volume of the bracelet market was 12.76 million units, down 27.1% year-on-year, and the bracelet market recorded the largest decline in three years, less than 1/3 of the overall shipment of wrist-worn devices.

Recently, an executive of a bracelet supply chain company revealed to reporters on the phone that the bracelet is "as thin as paper". "Whether it is a high-end or low-end product, there is only a few yuan of profit."

When the bracelet was in the falling channel, Huami Technology (ZEPP, stock price of $1.55, market value of $93.54 million), which sounded the first trumpet of Xiaomi's ecological chain company's US stock IPO, was also having a good time. Not only did the performance turn from profit to loss, but the stock price also fell from $11 listed on the New York Stock Exchange five years ago to $1.55 today, with a market value of less than $100 million, a shrinkage of nearly ninety percent.

Huaqiangbei is difficult to find a smart bracelet

Since Google released the Google Glass project in 2012, the concept of smart wearable devices has become familiar to the public, but as the forefront of human scientific and technological exploration, the development history of modern smart wearable devices can actually be traced back to the 60s and 70s of the 20th century - the 1975 watch Pulsar Calculator Watch with a calculator function can be said to be the first smart wearable device to be consumed by the masses.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the development of smart wearable devices has entered an accelerated period, in the international market, Samsung, Motorola, LG, Microsoft, Apple have their own talents, the domestic market Huawei, Xiaomi each breakthrough, especially the Xiaomi bracelet listed in 2014 swept the smart wearable market at a price close to the people of 79 yuan, with more than one million sales in one fell swoop to become a solid position of the head player.

For a time, the products of counting steps, calculating calories burned, and monitoring sleep quality were dazzling, and the prices ranged from tens of yuan to nearly 1,000 yuan.

But great change is already brewing. In 2016, Jawbone, once the darling of the industry, announced the discontinuation of smart bracelets; The star project Pebble was acquired by former rival Fitbit, and Fitbit itself has been falling in its share price. In fact, after several years of development, smart bracelets have been difficult for users to maintain stickiness, and most users have fallen out of favor as soon as the freshness of the three-minute heat passes.

Since 2021, the shipment of smart bracelets has gradually been overtaken by smart watches. GfK data shows that in 2021, the sales of China's smart watches increased by 55% year-on-year, accounting for 61% of China's smart wrist wearable market share; Domestic smart bracelet sales increased by 23%, market share 13%; Children's watches account for the remaining 26%. From the sales volume of adult wrist wearable products, the proportion of smart watches continues to rise; The proportion of smart bracelets has declined.

In order to further understand the market status of bracelet products, on the afternoon of March 15, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" visited Huaqiangbei Electronics Market, which is the world's largest electronic distribution center and the "wind vane" of China's electronics market. However, during the nearly two-hour visit, the reporter found that in addition to mobile phone brand stores, even the collection of electronic products - Gome Electric and Shundian were difficult to find a bracelet. Relevant staff at both retailers said that there were no bracelet products in the store, only smart watches. "There have been very few people wearing bracelets in the past two years."

In a small Huawei store, the staff told reporters that there is no bracelet in the store, but there is a bracelet type watch FIT 2, "the old bracelet of the past is gone"; Another larger store has only one Huawei Band 7 on sale, with prices starting from 269 yuan.

At the same time, the reporter noted that as of now, mobile phone manufacturer vivo has not released the brand's bracelet products, and Honor and OPPO have reduced the iteration speed of bracelet products in recent years, of which Honor released bracelet 6 in November 2020, and did not release bracelet 7 until December 2022.

In addition, a product with low technical content will also attract many copycat manufacturers to imitate. The first floor of Huaqiang North Baohua Building used to be covered with a wide variety of smart bracelets, but now only a few stalls sell smart bracelets and smart watches, not only supporting wholesale and retail, but also supporting ODM (private labeling).

A stall selling wearable devices in the building, around many people are choosing smart watches, salespeople introduce the functions and use of watches on the side, while bracelets are rarely selected. On the one hand, because the price difference between the two is not much, on the other hand, the watch is more functional.

Why is the smart bracelet not popular? Why are cheap bracelet sales defeated by hundreds or even thousands of yuan of smart watches? Pan Xuefei, assistant research director of IDC China, recently told reporters that there are two main reasons for the decline of the bracelet market, first, the product itself, with iteration, smart watch products carry more comprehensive functions, including the acquisition and application of motion data; In addition to actual functions, smart watches also have invisible functions such as social status and fashion wear, which are difficult to meet with bracelets. Second, from the perspective of consumer cognition, the bracelet leads more and more users to understand wristband devices, and then gradually upgrade to smart watches.

Another executive of the bracelet supply chain company also believes that the decline in the bracelet market is mainly squeezed by the dimensionality reduction of watch products. "The upgraded version of the bracelet has been made into a watch with a screen, and no other special functions have been added, and now cheap watches can even be bought for tens of yuan." At present, the company's most popular product is a smart watch priced at about 200 yuan, and few people buy the bracelet. ”

Profits "as thin as paper"

Like MP3, mobile power, etc., after the crazy entry of various capitals, the price of smart bracelets has plummeted to tens of yuan.

For the cost and profit of the bracelet, the aforementioned supply chain executives revealed: "Each company according to the shipment volume, the cost of sharing is also different, the cost of the basic bracelet is about 40 yuan, if only a set of molds is opened, the scale of expected sales of 1.2 million yuan can balance the cost." But overall, the profits of bracelets and watches are already very thin, whether it is high-end or low-end products, there are only a few yuan of profits. ”

The decline in sales of smart bracelets has made the cooperation company of Xiaomi bracelet, Huami Information Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Huami Technology"), also have a hard time. According to the 2022 results announced by Huami Technology, the company's revenue for the year was 4.1 billion yuan, down 33.7% year-on-year; Net loss attributable to the company was 288.3 million yuan. Total shipments in the fourth quarter of 2022 were 4.5 million units, down 45.8% from the same period last year.

According to public information, Huami Technology was established in 2014, and the company received a round of financing from Xiaomi Technology and Shunwei Capital that year, totaling $810,000. The company's main business is divided into Xiaomi brand (smart bracelet, smart scale) and self-operated brand Amazfit and others (smart watch and smart bracelet, etc.) according to product brands. This domestic smart wearable device leader once had unlimited scenery, produced a phenomenal explosive Xiaomi bracelet for Xiaomi, and was the first Xiaomi ecological chain enterprise to successfully land on the New York Stock Exchange.

However, from its listing on the New York Stock Exchange five years ago to March 17, 2023, Huami's share price fell by 86.07%, and the company's stock issue price was $11, and as of the close of trading on March 17, the share price was $1.52.

The share of the bracelet is eaten away by the watch, which shows that people have passed the early taste stage of smart bracelets.

At present, the "independence" of smart watches is being highlighted, it is no longer an accessory of smartphones, but can exist as a device that can be used independently. In particular, the emergence of Apple Watch cellular smart watches allows users to get rid of main devices such as mobile phones, but the dependence of smart bracelets on mobile phones is still serious.

In addition, the functionality of smart watches is becoming more and more perfect. For example, making phone calls, checking information, map searching, etc., in addition, on the professional track, some brands have also begun to pay attention to professional data including ambulatory heart rate monitoring, atrial fibrillation risk prediction, screening sleep apnea, body temperature detection and so on. In fact, many users believe that the simple monitoring of the bracelet and other functions cannot meet their deeper needs for health management.

In addition to lack of innovation and simple functions, smart bracelets need frequent charging and uncomfortable wearing have also become one of the reasons why some consumers give up using smart bracelets. "The experience of the bracelet is not very good, not only do you have to charge it in three or four days, but when the temperature is high, the strap is sweaty." One user said.

However, when it comes to predicting the trend of the smart bracelet market in 2023, Pan Xuefei believes that with the gradual recovery of the consumer economy and the launch of large-screen products by leading manufacturers, the bracelet market is expected to recover slightly this year.

Transformation or upgrading?

When it comes to whether there will be a transformation in the future, the supply chain executives responded helplessly: "Every (consumer electronics) industry is similar. ”

How can profitability be improved? The person said that in addition to hardware, there are opportunities (profits) in software in China, but overseas mainly rely on hardware, because overseas software has been occupied by Google's "family bucket" innate advantage. In the future, differentiated innovation in products will mainly focus on health. "On bracelet products, the threshold for detection technologies such as body temperature and heart rate at the ordinary entry level is relatively low, but if it is a medical device certification, it is relatively small, and the price will be more expensive. Innovation in other areas will take time. ”

In fact, continuing to promote health monitoring is still the key direction for bracelet enterprises. In February this year, Lexin Medical (SZ300562, stock price 10.25 yuan, market value 2.201 billion yuan) said on Interactive Yi that the company's currently mass-produced smart wearable bracelets and watch products have blood oxygen saturation monitoring functions, as well as heart rate monitoring, sleep monitoring, breathing training and supporting a variety of sports modes and other health management functions. In the face of the continuous heating up of social healthcare needs, the company will adhere to the improvement of the medical and health ecological strategy and broaden the product layout in the field of health IoT.

E&P Technology (SZ300211, stock price 9.06 yuan, market value 2.748 billion yuan) also recently said on Interactive Yi that the sensor developed by the company is PPG biosensor, which can be applied to smart bracelets, smart watches, smart weight scales/body fat scales, smart sports shoes and other health wearable devices. The company will uphold an open attitude to find more development opportunities, constantly improve the industrial layout, and continue to promote the cultivation of the field of health monitoring biosensors.

At present, the innovation of smart bracelets is weak, but the application scenarios are constantly expanding. In addition to upgrading health monitoring functions, the reporter noticed that some manufacturers are also constantly exploring NFC, smart home control, Bluetooth headsets and other functions. Among them, NFC (near field communication) can be applied to mobile payment, electronic ticketing, access control, mobile identification, anti-counterfeiting and other scenarios, which is one of the main directions for manufacturers to expand smart bracelet application scenarios.

Finally, Pan Xuefei believes that although the bracelet market has shrunk, the market will still exist for a long time in the future, it carries two values, the first is to pull new users, there are still a large number of users who have never tried wristband devices, bracelets are a relatively low-cost attempt solution. The second is that for mass users who do not have strong sports and health needs and have a limited budget, the bracelet is still the most cost-effective wristband device.

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