Musk tweeted that he began to develop the third part of his master plan, what exactly will be the content? In the 16 years since the release of the first part of its master plan in 2006, Tesla has grown from an obscure startup to a phenomenon in automotive history, and Musk's "first principles" are widely known. Although there are jump tickets from time to time, Tesla has been following the established route. You have to admit that Musk is the most visionary man of his time and has the ability to turn his vision into reality.
Wen 丨 wisdom driving network Huang Huadan
For those who have watched Musk and Putin fight in recent days, it is difficult to believe that Musk is a person who is good at making plans and following the plan.
On March 17, Musk tweeted that a third part of his master plan was being developed.
In 2006, Musk first blogged the first part of his master plan.
Overall, the first part of the plan is simple, that is, to build electric vehicles, to build electric vehicles that the public can afford; to convert mainstream fossil energy into clean energy.
It took Tesla a decade to achieve this step. In April 2016, the Model 3 went public, which means that Tesla has built a family car that the public can afford. Since then, sales have also proved that model 3 has successfully achieved a scale effect, which has greatly reduced costs.
This precisely reflects musk's belief in the "first principles".
What is First Principles?
The definition given on Wikipedia goes like this: A first principle is a basic, foundational, self-evident proposition or assumption that cannot be deduced from any other proposition or assumption cannot be derived from any other proposition or inferred hypothesis).
Musk's own expression is: Don't follow the trend. You may have heard me say that we should think in terms of the physical method of first principles, that is, not by metaphor, but by reducing things to the most basic truths you can think of.
The logic of Tesla's master plan is to find the basic principles behind it, make a plan based on this rule, and then step by step achieve the set goals.
Although it took a decade, Tesla successfully and brilliantly completed the first part of the planning.
The second part builds on the first part of the pursuit of clean energy, namely solar energy, while adding driving safety and efficiency.
The effective application of solar energy has been commercialized in batches, but from the current development of autonomous driving, there is still a long way to go before the real FSD (fully automated driving) is realized.
Now, another 6 years later, Musk is finally about to unveil his third part of the plan.
Speculation quickly spread on the Internet, and under Musk's Twitter, a group of netizens' comments were also gathered.
So, on the basis of the first two parts, what will be the content of the third part of the master plan?
Before doing so, we may wish to review the specifics of the first two parts of the plan.
Part One
In 2006, Musk first published the first part of Tesla's master plan on his blog.
They are:
1. Build a sports car, that is, the Roadster;
2. Use the money from the sale of sports cars to build moderately priced cars, namely Model X and Model S;
3. Use this money to recreate more affordable cars, namely Model 3 and Model Y;
4. At the same time, zero-emission power generation options are available, namely solar energy.
In 2008, Tesla released its first electric car, the Roadster. Musk himself, as the first owner, detailed its performance: loaded with a lithium-ion battery, the maximum cruising range is 393 kilometers, zero hundred acceleration is less than 4s, and the extreme speed is up to 200 kilometers / h.
Today, such a configuration is not surprising, but in 2008, it was enough to shock the world. At that time, the Roadster was priced at $89,000.
Explaining the first part of its plan, Musk said Tesla's long-term plan is to build multiple models, including affordable family models.
Tesla's goal is to realize the transition from fossil fuels to electric energy.
Musk believes that the initial unit cost of any new technology will be high. Therefore, Tesla's strategy is to break into the high-end market with sports cars, let people who are willing to pay a premium for sports cars pay first, and then push down the market as quickly as possible to achieve larger volumes and lower prices.
No matter how many shocking remarks there are, there is no denying that Musk is indeed a great man.
In response to those who doubted Musk's ability to complete the plan, the first part of the overall plan was not a bad fit.
Model Y topped the february domestic SUV sales list, and Model 3 was included in the top 10 global sales in 2021. The acquisition of Solar City has helped Tesla better lay out the solar track.
Part Two
In 2016, a decade later, Musk reissued the second part of his master plan:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage;
Expansion of the EV product line to address all major market segments;
Develop autonomous driving capabilities that are 10 times safer than manual learning through large-scale fleet learning;
Let the car make money for the owner when it is not in use.
In terms of completion, solar roofs have been commercialized in batches.
Tesla's solar roof features a seamless design that uses a fully integrated solar storage system to power the home. At the same time, powerwall is a compact household battery that can store the energy generated by the solar roof to power the home at night or during power outages.
In terms of product lines, Tesla is currently selling models, Model S and Model 3 are sedans, and Model X and Model Y are SUVs. Together with cyberruck and Semi, which are not yet listed, most of the market segments are covered.
But musk's high-occupancy bus in the city at the time didn't seem to have any news, and Cyberruck and Semi's constant ticket hopping also made people wonder if Musk could fulfill his promise.
This one can only be regarded as half completed.
And in terms of autonomous driving, while Musk repeatedly stressed on a January conference call, the FSD will be launched this year. But the truth is that Tesla's FSD is still in the L2 assisted driving stage, and driver monitoring is still required after opening. The US market has always used the FSD Beta, which is a fully autonomous driving beta.
FSD Beta was first released in October 2020 and has been updated to FSD Beta 10.11. Last December, a Tesla Model 3 equipped with an FSD Beta set off from SpaceX headquarters and drove 360 miles on autopilot, about 580 kilometers to the original Tesla headquarters in Silicon Valley, without manual takeover.
After the FSD Beta is turned on, enter a destination on the map to make the vehicle automatically navigate and drive, completing point-to-point automatic driving from point A to point B, including automatic access to ramps, courtesy to pedestrians, through narrow roads, unprotected left turns and other actions. At present, domestic Tesla models can also optionally install FSD functions, but there is a big gap with the FSD Beta functions in North America.
As stated on the official website, in order to achieve true full automatic driving, that is, to achieve the level of L4 and L5 autonomous driving capabilities, a large amount of data and research and development, as well as policy release. Musk's plan for this step has not yet been realized.
As for making the vehicle make money for the owner when it is idle, it is more necessary to implement the FSD function.
The second part of the master plan is still to be completed.
Part Three
So, what will be the third part of the master plan?
A user on Twitter who pays close attention to Tesla@stevenmarkryan published his insights on Tesla's master plan as early as January.
He believes Tesla's secret plan is:
Transform the world's energy mix and achieve sustainable development in terms of energy output, storage and energy supply;
Significantly promote the world economy;
At the same time, general artificial intelligence is realized.
Combined with Musk's "first principles" thinking model and Tesla's previously released products, The Intelligent Driving Network believes that the third part of the planning is likely to be related to the humanoid robots previously unveiled on AI Day and the electric aircraft that Musk is eager to build.
On a January conference call, Musk said he would not develop a $25,000 base model this year, instead seeing his humanoid robot as the most important task of the year.
Tesla's humanoid robot, code-named Optimus, was first unveiled on AI Day in August 2021. The robot is made of a smooth "lightweight material". He is about 173 cm tall, weighs 56 kg, has a walking speed of 8 km/h, and can carry up to 20 kg of items.
Its face consists of a camera and a screen to display various information, and its limbs are controlled by 40 drive motors, with human-grade hand function. Both feet are able to sense and respond, achieving balance and agile movements.
Like Tesla motors, the robot also uses vision-based neural networks, AP cameras, and a full suite of computing devices for FSDs.
Musk believes that over time, Tesla's robotics business will surpass the car business.
The first application scenario Musk set for his robot was manual labor to solve labor problems.
Tesla robots share an AI system with Tesla Motors.
Some people also believe that smart cars are only a transitional stage in the development of the industry, and robots are Tesla's goal.
This year, Musk has declared that Tesla is now an AI AI company.
Equally groundbreaking is musk's threat to develop an electric plane.
Obviously, the realization of electric aircraft will help achieve the goal of energy transition.
But the biggest difficulty of electric aircraft is that battery technology cannot be broken.
The energy required by the aircraft is much higher than that of the car, and the energy density of the battery has higher requirements. And once it does, it's not just electric planes that will benefit.
epilogue
From being seen as an outspoken liar to becoming the world's richest man today, Musk has successfully developed Tesla from an obscure startup to a market value of more than 100 billion US dollars today, and is regarded as a competitor by a number of centuries-old car companies, And Musk's master plan has proven to be very far-sighted.
Doing electric vehicles and changing the world's energy structure, Tesla's products have been evolving in this direction. Pioneering applications including 4680 batteries, CTC technology, integrated cast bodies, and more are all working to achieve their planned directions.
Although you frequently throw out eye-catching remarks such as "Biden does not love me" and "let Putin and I stand alone, and bet on Ukraine", you have to admit that Musk's career planning is far beyond ordinary people's foresight.
At each stage of his own, making a plan and implementing it step by step also reflects that this person with the smartest mind in the world is also a down-to-earth practitioner.
Hopefully, his third part of the plan won't skip the ticket.
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